A refreshing view of AI, this excerpt I particulary enjoyed: > I mentioned in my previous half-year update, Open AI came up with a transformer based language model called GPT-2 and refused to release the full version fearing horrible consequence that may have to the future of humanity. Well, it did not take long before some dude - Aaron Gokaslan - managed to replicate the full model and released it in the name of sci…
God forbid that it takes more than a few days for decent chat bots to appear on Reddit from a troll farm in eastern europe/china/wherever based on these new models. Or has that already happened, and we're simply unaware?
AI Update, Late 2019
41–50 of 50 posts
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
We need contrarian voices for both spotting any issues we might have overlooked, and assuring ourselves we know better. It's still better than what I can read from "LinkedIn influencers" in my feed like "Logistic regression is still the best" or "Self-driving cars will never work because of long tail"...
It’s a good read but the negativity makes it appear irrational. It would be better if he left the ranting away and focused on the realistic recap without the PR hype. Note that AI has a history of being stalled by overly pessimist evaluations (Minsky / Papert on the perceptron, Lighthill report).
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s a good read but the negativity makes it appear irrational. It would be better if he left the ranting away and focused on the realistic recap without the PR hype. Note that AI has a history of being stalled by overly pessimist evaluations (Minsky / Papert on the perceptron, Lighthill report).
AI also has a history of being stalled by believing its own hype (the AI winter of the 1990s). Too much money can kill AI as fast as too little.
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
>But really, what did AI do to this guy? He's a founder of an ML startup with published papers.
So hes a masochist or? Seems to hate ML.
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#45This post is full of non sequitur like links to the PG&E wildfire prevention shutoffs after talking about how model training (which happens offline in some datacenter) will always cost lots of energy (why would you build a data center north of the bay where it can be affected by wildfires and sky high utility/real estate prices). Maybe it is meant to be humorous and I just didn't get it. Yeah everything is harder tha…
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
>But really, what did AI do to this guy? He's a founder of an ML startup with published papers.
So hes a masochist or? Seems to hate ML.
He does not hate symbolic ML which is based on logic/knowledge (and do understand the world).
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#47Sure there is a lot of hype in AI/ML right now, but this post reads like there is an axe to grind with all ML. it ignores true progress made in a lot of areas and denigrates the whole field. to me it did not read like an objective post, but more like just a "all AI is bullshit" style blog post
I think we need a new word for this kind of posts anti-hype hype. Lot of people try to ride on anti-hype train to fame without bringing anything new to the table. Anytime there's new progress in AI, you will see many comments or posts some variations of "but humans do it more efficiently" (in arbitrary dimension) or "what about the other problem AI didn't solve". More often than not these are just some lazy layman cr…
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed. I much prefer we would call it statistical intelligence. Although artificial intelligence is actually spot on. We just understand the wrong side of the ambiguity. Its not really intelligence that we have reproduced artificially - since it isn’t intelligence - but a fake intelligence, the artificial kind. We’ve created the artifice of intelligence, through statistics, but not intelligence. People knew long bef…
So advances in RL (Deepmind), are not merely statistical intelligence, those are true advancement in AI (not only ML). I.e. those a machine can train on their own data.
So a RL chess algorithm tells your statistically a move (action) from a state S to a new state S’ such that you are expected to maximize your reward. Whereas a chessmaster (probably) designs his next sequence of moves based on logic (my opponent will respond in such a way because etc). This is different from « statistically, this move right now has the best odds of leading to a win » a la monte carlo. Now what is surprising, is that statistical algos are better than our best logicians at this particular task. But its the action at a given state is still statistically designed.
Finally, you need your data mining to be representative of the underlying distribution you are trying to model. So you need your simulator to be the most real whereas they are in fact approximations in most useful cases (landing a plane for instance).
So for instance if you want an algo to design the flight path of a rocket landing on an asteriod, you could recreate a simulator modeling spacetime from observations and model its dynamics from eintein’s equations, but then what’s the RL for, why not just use an off the shelf optimization algorithm like we have for decades? [1]
The bellman equation and DQNs are nice and all, but they’re still statistical algorithms, producing - in my mind - statistical intelligence about a particular system. An RL agent will not tell you WHY such an action was taken, but it’ll tell you that statistically, it is the action to take.
Very neat results in RL however.
[1] i worked on a RL based agent to control trafic lights, and it wasnt clear whether our solution was better than a classical optimization one. Actually, classical optimization (minimizing an analytical model of the system) seemed to scale much better to larger meshes.
Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#49Re: AI Update, Late 2019
#50The author uses these ([1][2]) diagrams to argue that more compute has diminishing returns. But the 'diminishing returns' are on the accuracy of correctly picking the single right category for a photo out of one thousand. Photos may simply not carry enough information to be able to meaningfully distinguish between them at that level of accuracy; existing models already exceeded humans' ability at top-5 accuracy in 20…
1. Google "difference between norfolk and norwich terrier".
2. Click first link: https://www.terrificpets.com/articles/10290165.asp.
3. "The Norwich terrier has prick ears, or ears that stand up, seemingly at alert, while the Norfolk has drop ears, or ears that seem to be folded over".
SOTA models are merely doing black-box pattern matching on who-knows-what, and are highly likely to fail dramatically outside of the training dataset confines.