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Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

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Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#41

Post by tryptophan »

dageshi wrote: post #29
anonuser123456 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of these days the gold bugs will be right. This might be the one...

I was one once, they may sort of be right. Gold will never become a "standard" again, but it could be extremely useful for preserving wealth from one standard to another. Gold has always been touted as a hedge against inflation, it's not, it's a hedge against financial system instability, inflation being a major symptom of such instability.

I've read that gold is a hedge against unexpected inflation, but this dumbed down to 'gold is a hedge for inflation'.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#42

Post by richardknop »

DuskStar wrote: post #36
richardknop wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bet is on 10k gold after next recession. I guess I’m a gold bug. But it’s still only 10% of my portfolio so I’m well diversified imho

Why gold and not 22 LR or 556 NATO? At least for me, there's not a huge gap between "all the other investments crater to the point that my 10% in gold is useful" and "oh boy looks like things are collapsing now", if that makes any sense.

You could have asked the same question when last Great Recession was unfolding and Lehman was going under. I believe that central banks will find a way to prevent a really bad scenario from happening.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#43

Post by ISL »

landryraccoon wrote: post #38
mc32 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

> CN bookkeeping’s suspect... IMO Americans are biased to overweight this. It doesn't matter as long as China can keep up appearances better than other countries for long enough. Investors will happily invest in a bubble believing that they are smart enough to get out before everyone else if things go south. Bad bookkeeping doesn't keep the NBA and Activision from kowtowing to China, I don't see why it would keep peo…

One of the many Buffett-isms is to only make investments where, if the market were to close for five years, you'd sleep well. It is that premise that shapes my investing theses relating to China.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#44

Post by diminoten »

H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

Going through mortgage application now, they grill the shit out of you on every little detail of your life now. They're aware of the last crash, and have done a lot to compensate.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#45

Post by notadoc »

H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

> Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle.

Disagree if you consider that many people are getting mortgages on overvalued properties at or near market peaks now, and in another significant downturn those could easily be underwater by 15%-50%. The same thing happened widely in the prior real estate bust in many trendy areas, leading to many foreclosures.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#46

Post by sremani »

mc32 wrote: post #5
H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

I think its No one out there, but some people I respect say, IMF SDR, I kind of get it. But IMF does not have a NAVY!

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#47

Post by jfasi »

> Lenders have bundled more than $18 billion worth of these loans into bonds this year that they then sold to investors...

Compare this to the ~$17 trillion of mortgage backed securities that existed prior to the financial crisis. $18 billion is peanuts, and hardly a systemic concern.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#48

Post by diminoten »

landryraccoon wrote: post #38
mc32 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

> CN bookkeeping’s suspect... IMO Americans are biased to overweight this. It doesn't matter as long as China can keep up appearances better than other countries for long enough. Investors will happily invest in a bubble believing that they are smart enough to get out before everyone else if things go south. Bad bookkeeping doesn't keep the NBA and Activision from kowtowing to China, I don't see why it would keep peo…

Americans aren't the only ones to overweight the shady monetary policy in China, and as a result it'll not become the defacto standard like the US Dollar is, as long as that shadiness remains.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#49

Post by fortran77 »

notadoc wrote: post #45
H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

> Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. Disagree if you consider that many people are getting mortgages on overvalued properties at or near market peaks now, and in another significant downturn those could easily be underwater by 15%-50%. The same thing happened widely in the prior real estate bust in many trendy areas, leading to many foreclosures.

The biggest damage was in non-trendy areas like Las Vegas suburbs or Orlando suburbs.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#50

Post by blakes »

api wrote: post #39

I'm a founder and have been getting spammed hard-core lately for small business loans. There are many companies offering 5-6 digit business loans and revolving lines of credit to basically anyone who can fog glass, and there are salespeople and spammers pushing them. I'd say I average 2-3 e-mails or cold calls per day. Feels like they're trying to stuff loans down my throat. I've spoken to other founders and small bu…

Same experience here. Constant small business loan offers. Not as many as you, mostly we get mail offers. At least 1-2/week.
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