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Tether: The Story So Far

kalzumeus.com

41–50 of 241 posts

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#41
post #15

Your daily reminder that you can short Tether if you want. All these people writing these articles, and the freely moving market price hovers right around 1:1. Funny how when people are asked to bet, despite the fact that there's almost no risk of loss for shorting it, their convictions disappear.

the other posts about the ownership issues aside a good amount of people will find it ethically reprehensible to make money off a scam like this and to participate or be involved with it at all so I've always considered these "why don't you bet on it?" arguments to be in borderline bad faith.

If you told me that I could make a ton of money by betting on the blood diamond market I wouldn't do it even if I knew 100% that I'd make money. It says very little about one's confidence in predictions. I don't want to spend five minutes of my life being financially involved in the crypto circus.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#42
post #14

"Players in the crypto ecosystem will be shocked, shocked to know it got this bad, this quickly, but this has been an open secret for over a year." ---- I'm not entirely in agreement the crypto world will be shocked tether is insolvent. As long the the fiat gateways exist to exit the system with gains intact, most could care less about tether. It's musical chairs.

Yeah, people have been saying that the Tether stuff is super shady and just waiting for the bubble to pop for the better part of 3 years. It's very much been an open secret.

This is pretty revisionist. My own experience lurking in crypto communities (and reading the replies to @Bitfinixed), was to insist that everything was fine and furiously deny that Tether was a scam, and accuse me of being a dirty fiat shill for pointing out that Tether was a scam, right up until Tether starting admitting under oath in court that they were never backed by reserves, at which point the conversation switched to "we knew it was shady all along".

This sort of thing is pretty common in Bitcoin land. Mt. Gox was also totally fine, nothing wrong, how dare you accuse them of wrongdoing, right up until they declared bankruptcy and then suddenly everyone had known all along they were insolvent and only a fool would've put their money there.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#43
I read very little in that article that's operationally in any way different from what happens daily in bank to bank back-office plumbing.

The only difference here is that it's a lot more visible to the general public because it's A) crypto B) new rather established means of transferring value between financial institutions.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#45
post #28

Cryptocurrencies are a religion. I find the idea that anyone would want to hold a large amount of any currency idle for a long period of time baffling. Yet this is the premise that so many people who are speculating in cryptocurrency "investments" have bought into. Then you add on top of that terrible user experience, slow transaction times, and lack of any theft protection and I don't understand why any sane person…

To some extent, every currency[0] requires collective faith. Paper money backed by our bizarre Federal Reserve / QE system isn't much less absurd than anything in the crypto world, and that's money that can't be programmed.

Still, you're not wrong about the quasi-cult like behavior in the crypto culture, which is unsurprising given the financial incentives that reward irrational exuberance and unsubstantiated hype. And the experience and performance are as abysmal as you describe; it's reasonable to hope/expect those would be improved upon, but it's somewhat surprising that we're roughly at the ten-year mark and it still hasn't happened [1]. (Aside: proof-of-work is an ecological anti-pattern that needs taxed out of existence; proof-of-stake isn't perfect, but it does the job well enough without needing an insane energy overhead.)

I think there's a strong case for replacing, or at least augmenting, faith in the state (aka, violence-backed currency) with a Schelling-focus faith in Turing-complete algorithms (aka, math-backed currency). I think there's even room for banking institutions as value-adds: if you're a nerd or a tinfoil-hat type, you own your keys, but most people outsource that service (including theft protection) to the bank. But the infrastructure simply isn't there today, and the actual value provided by the crypto ecosystem is minuscule relative to its valuation. It's better treated as slow-motion gambling than anything resembling an investment. When the belief disappears, so does the value, and there are a vast number of small gods vying for our attention, most of whom won't make it.

[0] (other than commodity-backed, like Romans with salt)

[1] I'm sure someone can point out an up-and-coming counter-example; while I'd love to hear about those, the point stands, given that a seamless experience isn't normalized, and hasn't hit an inflection point of utility for consumers.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, people have been saying that the Tether stuff is super shady and just waiting for the bubble to pop for the better part of 3 years. It's very much been an open secret.

This is pretty revisionist. My own experience lurking in crypto communities (and reading the replies to @Bitfinixed), was to insist that everything was fine and furiously deny that Tether was a scam, and accuse me of being a dirty fiat shill for pointing out that Tether was a scam, right up until Tether starting admitting under oath in court that they were never backed by reserves, at which point the conversation swi…

Both viewpoints exist, loudly. You'll find plenty of people today that say that the Tether stuff is fine and completely ordinary, and if it hasn't popped by now it probably won't. (Hell, you could read my original comment in this thread that way.)

What changes is which side you look at. Think of it like a Rorschach test: there is no truth, but there's a smattering of contradictory evidence that can be interpreted both ways. Your brain can't deal with the contradiction, and then picks a side based on the preponderance of evidence it sees. It can flip sides if strong new evidence comes out, but in general the brain discounts evidence that contradicts its initial hypothesis and amplifies evidence that confirms it.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#47

> The dominant use case for cryptocurrency is speculation. Speculators want to put value into the system, somehow have it become greater, and then take more value out of the system than they put in. Don't forget that another relevant use case is anonimized payments. Let's say you deal with weapons. A good crypto could help. Let's say you sell porn videos: in some cases, one wants to pay with crypto because they don't…

That use case is currently comparatively vanishingly small and no where near large enough to explain Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies current values. Speculation isn't just the dominant use case. It's the overwhelmingly dominant use case.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#48
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether has gigantic red flags including not being able to actually exchange it for dollars even though it is pegged to dollars. It's so brazen it's hard to even believe it.

Fractional reserve banking has the same problem, yet provides a real, functional purpose for finance. Tether has a purpose - to be a savings account is not that purpose.

... and earned that acceptance over a very long period of time, not because they said "trust us" enough times.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#49
post #26
post #15

Your daily reminder that you can short Tether if you want. All these people writing these articles, and the freely moving market price hovers right around 1:1. Funny how when people are asked to bet, despite the fact that there's almost no risk of loss for shorting it, their convictions disappear.

As explained in the post, you have to bite off very high levels of counterparty risk to short. Cryptocurrency exchanges die in something like 20% of exchange-years, and your estimate of an exchange dying _contingent on me being right_ should be biased towards the high side if they are exposed to the risks of using tether. This is a subplot of the Big Short, and cost several groups of the protagonists a lot of money:…

I read The Big Short when it was first released, when I was 20. Maybe I should read it again, now.

Re: Tether: The Story So Far

#50
While I do believe Tether is pretty sketchy and I don't trust any so-called "stablecoin", it's also pretty clear the author has an ax to grind and has had for a while.

Funny how every time people say it's so easy to prove Tether's frailty, they say there's way too much counterparty risk in shorting Tether. Shorting a scam should be a sure bet, but it has yet to happen.

So, buyer beware.

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