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VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

bloomberg.com

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Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#41

Post by tomatotomato37 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #10
ardit33 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.

> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will la…

Most of those factors are actually beneficial for the corporations however; less parts and people means less logistical overhead eating away at profits. The increase in reliability is a questionable loss too as most consumers dump their current car every 6 years regardless if it still works or not in their effort to keep up with the Joneses. Beside battery wear will put a hard limit on car lifespan anyway since those giant things are going to be the labor equivalent of an engine swap in order to replace.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#42

Post by natch »

boznz wrote: post #12
ardit33 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.

Demand will be there once you can charge on every corner and they start making cars that don't cost double the gas equivalent

Someone on reddit recently bought a new Tesla for $30,000 after incentives (not counting savings on gas, oil, brake pads, and other maintenance). Sure that is double the price of some bottom rung cars but $30k is pretty common these days.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#43

Post by rmoriz »

pgeorgi wrote: post #36
_ea1k wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla builds ~400,000 per year out of a single factory. If VW were producing 3.2 million/year by the end of 2022 that would seem like a lot to me. Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well. Even going from where they are to 2 million pe…

The Zwickau factory I mentioned a couple of times produces 297k ICE cars a year (1350 a day, 220 days a year), and aims for 330k EV cars in 2022 (1500 a day, 220 days a year). Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...

Currently they still do below 100 EVs a day. Remodeling is not done.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#44

Post by [deleted] »

geerlingguy wrote: post #39
sremani wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The unfortunately truth is many of the Electric Vehicles centered sites in US are Tesla fan sites more or less. If EVs have to truly succeed they have to be coming from more than one brand. - Mitsubishi Outland PHEV - Hyundai Ionic series - Chevy BoltEV Lincoln Aviator PHEV, Prosche Cayenne Hybrid covering luxury SUV segment. There are tons of EVs and PHEVs out there which pretty much cover a large swath of vehicle s…

Hybrids are ‘meh’ to me. A ton of EV advantages are dismissed or tossed out the window once you mix in a gas engine.

[deleted]

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#45

Post by rmoriz »

pgeorgi wrote: post #11
treypitt wrote: post #9

Shifting to hybrid or full EVs was laudable five or ten years ago, increasingly less so since then. Neither producers nor consumers in the auto market care about LCA's that look at REMs and battery impact. Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid. The only solution to the climate catastrophe was a massive change in the economy, supply chain, and western consumer culture. Hybrid car technology was a viable wedg…

> Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid. "The Zwickau plant is supplied with electricity by Volkswagen Kraftwerks GmbH. For a few years now, this company has been offering pure green electricity sourced from hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, and solar parks. This green electricity is TÜV-certified. Even though it costs a little more, Volkswagen Sachsen (with the Zwickau, Dresden, and Chemnitz sites) h…

VW Kraftwerk operates a coal plant in Wolfsburg and also burns waste oil https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heizkraftwerk_Wolfsburg_West

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#46

Post by natch »

pgeorgi wrote: post #16
organsnyder wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't account for the energy used to charge the cars during their lifetime, though. Thankfully, in general the United States energy grid is getting less CO2-intensive.

That's outside the car makers' control. The public charging stations in my town (in Germany) are powered (hooked up to our common electricity network, but in terms of energy bought for them) using hydro power from a nearby river. Any car owner could use their own generator using coal or oil to power their private charging point though. Generally speaking the only remedy to that is to make CO2 intensive power cost pro…

Car makers don’t need to control it. Market forces are making the grid cleaner with options that blow dirty power away financially.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#47

Post by natch »

Kutta wrote: post #18
treypitt wrote: post #9

Shifting to hybrid or full EVs was laudable five or ten years ago, increasingly less so since then. Neither producers nor consumers in the auto market care about LCA's that look at REMs and battery impact. Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid. The only solution to the climate catastrophe was a massive change in the economy, supply chain, and western consumer culture. Hybrid car technology was a viable wedg…

The only feasible way to have cars and trucks in a zero-net-emission economy is to make them electric. Unless you want to scrap all cars and trucks, the electric versions must eventually be developed and mass-produced.

Yep and that is why used gas car prices are going to be in a free fall very soon.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#48

Post by pgeorgi »

rmoriz wrote: post #45
pgeorgi wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid. "The Zwickau plant is supplied with electricity by Volkswagen Kraftwerks GmbH. For a few years now, this company has been offering pure green electricity sourced from hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, and solar parks. This green electricity is TÜV-certified. Even though it costs a little more, Volkswagen Sachsen (with the Zwickau, Dresden, and Chemnitz sites) h…

VW Kraftwerk operates a coal plant in Wolfsburg and also burns waste oil https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heizkraftwerk_Wolfsburg_West

That doesn't contradict the claim I cited: VW Kraftwerk offers a product based on "pure green electricity" (they didn't say they do that exclusively) and apparently Zwickau is buying that product, not the oil based one used in Wolfsburg.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#50

Post by pgeorgi »

rmoriz wrote: post #43
pgeorgi wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Zwickau factory I mentioned a couple of times produces 297k ICE cars a year (1350 a day, 220 days a year), and aims for 330k EV cars in 2022 (1500 a day, 220 days a year). Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...

Currently they still do below 100 EVs a day. Remodeling is not done.

Right, I cited current numbers in ICE production and planned numbers for EV production in 3 years. According to media coverage they only start EV production for real in Zwickau in November.
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