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Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

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Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#41

Post by 88840-8855 »

adam_ellsworth wrote: post #5
onion2k wrote: post #2

If the political system in China collapses everyone should worry. That would likely result in a global economic crash the likes of which the world has never seen.

Having not studied economics/politics during my time in college, wow does one qualify "collapse" here? What are the properties?

Dramatic political reforms, similar to what happened in 1991 when the Soviet Union "collapsed". Corruption would skyrocket, Oligarchs would emerge from the state owned enterprises, HK would declare independence, inner Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang, probably Yunnan would follow. Flows of money, including taxes, would be interrupted, people wont get paid. State owned enterprises would not be able to pay their people, the banking system would collapse (as all major banks are state owned - and dont forget, 5 of the 10 largest banks on this planet are Chinese). Shanghai Composite (their stock market index) would plummet. As there are many micro investors, this would radiate into the housing market. hundreds of Millions would lose their homes.

Such a collapse would bring China back to the 1980s, increase poverty by hundreds of millions of people, disrupt global supply Chains (50% of the global electronics are shipped from the Pearl River Delta, 50% of all ACs and fridges are made there, Daimler, BMW and GM source 20-30% of their parts from China).

Western factories would reduce production as parts are missing. Western companies that export to China would have to reduce output (Volkswagen, GM would have to cut production by 30-40%, Airbus and Boeing by 20-30%). Western stock markets plummet, housing crises emerge, poverty surges, unemployment increases dramatically.

All in all, this would not be a great thing and a lose-lose situation. The Soviet Union was not integrated into the global value chains. China is. A collapse would make the 2008 crisis look like a cute little girl on a pink bicycle and bring the global economies back into the 1990s.

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#42

Post by Animats »

The increase in pork prices is due to a swine fever epidemic that started in Liaoning province.[1] SCMP has a reasonably good article.

China's huge boom is starting to level off. Down from 10%/yr to 7% a year. The US is under 3%/yr. That happened to all the "Asian tigers", as they caught up to the developed world. Its a long way from a recession.

[1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3020488/c...

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#44

Post by rqs »

christkv wrote: post #19

I expect China to clamp down harder and harder on its population as well as deflect attention from it as the economy slides to try keep the party in power. Look for the social credit system to expand even more and also more rhetoric about it all being the fault of evil foreigners.

Hate to say it but it's already happening and getting more clear day by day. I start to suspect all of this is intentional, including all of those trade war "failures".

You have a threat (The trade war with USA, well and maybe South China sea etc) and a slowing economy. Now many Chinese companies are in need of help from the CCP government, and the help is not for free.

In Zhejiang, their government want to send "Government representatives" to private firms[0] to "help" them on site. I will not be in total surprise if one day all of those companies turn themselves to "State controlled".

[0] https://www.voachinese.com/a/China-To-Send-Officials-To-100-... (Chinese, but the URL already told the story)

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#45

Post by spaceman_2020 »

jaynetics wrote: post #21
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin is popular, because he's better than what was before (i'm speaking mostly of the old drunk). And also because he does stuff that a lot of russians actually like. A lot of people (mostly westeners) don't understand, that if someone gets back "historic russian territory" from a "neighbor" you don't really like, and noone can do anything about that, that's a good thing for Russia. It's bad for the neighbors, it's…

"but for Russia, it's a good thing." Are you sure? Haven't the resulting sanctions damaged Russia's economic growth and increased prices for consumers? I can see the geo-strategic value of Crimea, but for the ordinary Russian citizen, where is the positive effect?

You have to understand that democracy, even the idea of it, is not native at all to Russians. I was there earlier in June. What struck me the most was how much reverence the Russians still have for all their erstwhile Soviet era dictators (Lenin and Stalin in particular). The former Tsars are particularly venerated.

The Russian people called Tsar Nicholas "little father". The assassination was an anomaly; the revolutionaries had to work very hard to hide the bodies because they feared the people would start worshipping the dead Tsars (which is exactly what's happening today).

Even with religion, 70 years of Soviet oppression and Russia is now as religious as ever.

So when you criticize Putin for crushing dissent, you have to understand that what might be oppression to us is perfectly normal for Russian people.

At this point, I have to ask: why do we assume that we know what's better for Russians (or any other nationality) than the Russians themselves?

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#46

Post by powerapple »

missosoup wrote: post #34
spectramax wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to imagine the world with China as a democracy only to assure the world that xenophobia is the first thing that comes to mind when people take an anti-China stance and as a reminder that Chinese culture, their arts, the land and the people are wonderful. I am against this dystopian overwhelmingly powerful and suppressive government. I imagine if 1989 was a turning moment for Democracy in China.

The wonderful culture and arts you're thinking about is historical. It doesn't really exist in China now. It was mostly wiped out during The Great Leap Forward, along with 30 million people give or take. Fun fact: advanced Traditional Chinese Medicine practitioners travel from China to Japan to learn. Japan preserved records of the TCM knowledge that China destroyed during the great leap.

Not they preserve Chinese artifacts. China has been invaded so many times, the collapse of governments had led foreigners to scoop artifacts from China at no cost. Look at British Museum, Lourve. It happened to all countries have suffered from war. Japanese took most books, paintings, because those are not seen as valuable for westerners. British took most vase, china.

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#47

Post by chloerei »

I'm Chinese and live well in China. Of course, I only represent myself. If you want to know more about China, see some Chinese travel YouTuber or come to China yourself. Instead of believing in a media publish "The Big Hack" without evidence.

I'm curious that HN is full of articles and comments that uglify China. Many Chinese developer read HN to learn and integrate into the world. Now I think Chinese understand the world more than the world understand China.

By the way, isn't this off-topic according to HN guidelines?

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#48

Post by puranjay »

howtofly wrote: post #37

China's success proves that democracy is not the only way. These guys just cannot accept this simple fact. LOL

Democracy imposed on countries where the demand for it never arose organically usually ends in failure.

The west has a biased perspective on this issue, but the idea of democracy is not innate to vast majority of the world

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#49

Post by friendlybus »

missosoup wrote: post #34
spectramax wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to imagine the world with China as a democracy only to assure the world that xenophobia is the first thing that comes to mind when people take an anti-China stance and as a reminder that Chinese culture, their arts, the land and the people are wonderful. I am against this dystopian overwhelmingly powerful and suppressive government. I imagine if 1989 was a turning moment for Democracy in China.

The wonderful culture and arts you're thinking about is historical. It doesn't really exist in China now. It was mostly wiped out during The Great Leap Forward, along with 30 million people give or take. Fun fact: advanced Traditional Chinese Medicine practitioners travel from China to Japan to learn. Japan preserved records of the TCM knowledge that China destroyed during the great leap.

GLF was terrible, but the west shares a shame in throwing away our intellectual and cultural pursuits. There's an argument that a very long time ago, the islamic intellectual tradition preserved enlightenment values whilst we were off doing other things. I don't know the gritty details of the argument, so I'd be the first to say I'm wrong.

Re: Life in China Is Getting Harder With High Prices

#50

Post by txdv »

Iv wrote: post #30
onion2k wrote: post #2

If the political system in China collapses everyone should worry. That would likely result in a global economic crash the likes of which the world has never seen.

If the political system in Chine does not collapse everyone should worry too. Because they are very quickly becoming the #1 economic power in the world and I really do not want to see them spreading their views on authoritarianism and citizens control. I am of a boring old school of thought that thinks democracy is a pretty cool system and that it should be preserved. I really hope the Chinese political system collap…

> I am of a boring old school

Like authatorian dictatorships are now super hip? :D

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