41–50 of 671 posts
It literally broke the Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y If you go to the homepage of the st louis fed and search popular series, this is the first that shows up.
Still baffled that this is called a curve
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Let’s talk in 10 years and see if your cash will beat my S&P allocation.
It’s about diversification and timing the market not simply holding cash for 10 years. I also just sold some stock, but I am still 75% in stocks.
It's a self fulfilling prophesy to an extent because all it takes to cause a recession is to convince everyone there's a recession.
That's partly because the market boom is itself a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stock markets go up because other people think they're going up. People who buy securities for the purpose of re-selling, rather than holding, bid prices up, based not on fundamental valuation but on the thought that it will become more popular. Stock markets aren't the same as the economy as a whole, but stock market bubbles boost the econom…
I'm really curious how the index funds will behave in the upcoming recession, afaik that was one of their main mantras and selling points, so to speak, i.e. that the market only goes up (or a certain part of the market, the most important part of the market) and that you'd be a fool not riding the wave by investing in said index funds which were in turn investing in that part of the market "assured" to always go up.
In other words, what will people do when they'll see their index funds go down 10 or 20% yoy? Will they take their money out of said index funds? Will they wait for the next uptick?
Still baffled that this is called a curve
A curve is a pretty normal way to visualize a bunch of Cartesian points at once.
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Hasn't it been right 7/8 of the last recessions?
Has it ever inverted but then a near term recession never followed?
We could stave off the coming recession if we had another Dotcom-type bubble, but market corrections are inevitable so it would just be a delay.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's partly because the market boom is itself a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stock markets go up because other people think they're going up. People who buy securities for the purpose of re-selling, rather than holding, bid prices up, based not on fundamental valuation but on the thought that it will become more popular. Stock markets aren't the same as the economy as a whole, but stock market bubbles boost the econom…
> That's partly because the market boom is itself a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stock markets go up because other people think they're going up. I'm really curious how the index funds will behave in the upcoming recession, afaik that was one of their main mantras and selling points, so to speak, i.e. that the market only goes up (or a certain part of the market, the most important part of the market) and that you'd be…
Given the popularization, any chance of an increased observer effect? In either direction, I mean, positive or negative.