Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 142 posts

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#41

Post by loyukfai »

majia wrote: post #31
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

It's more likely that the protest causes huge damage to HK economy, and HK people start to get tired of it. At some point people may decide to take economic incentives from Beijing and become another city in China with some superficial autonomy status.

If that's true the anti extradition bill amendment would have gone throught and the 2M people or however many wouldn't have turned out to the street on 16th of June.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3014695...

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#42

Post by danieltillett »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #37
loyukfai wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some perspective, in 1912 the Communist Party of China wasn't even a thing.

Yes, for Chinese these territorial issues are bigger that the Communist Party. In Western countries they would be called "bi-partisan" or "cross-parties" because there is a national consensus on them.

About the only thing you will get unity on from the Chinese people is unity.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#43

Post by culturestate »

loyukfai wrote: post #36
culturestate wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.

FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF. Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.

> FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF.

This is why I said "openly."

Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people.

That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#44

Post by loyukfai »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #37
loyukfai wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some perspective, in 1912 the Communist Party of China wasn't even a thing.

Yes, for Chinese these territorial issues are bigger that the Communist Party. In Western countries they would be called "bi-partisan" or "cross-parties" because there is a national consensus on them.

Am not so sure about this, the current emphasis on "territorial integrity" is IMO as much, if not more of, a result of PRC propaganda as established on any historical basis.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#45

Post by incompatible »

Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Sure, why not. Perhaps at the same time they could organize referenda on independence for Tibet, Taiwan and Xinjiang. Maybe they could open the global Internet to their citizens and abandon the ridiculous censorship programs they run. They could also submit to international adjudication on the South China Sea. They would be reasonable things to do.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#46

Post by Nasrudith »

majia wrote: post #31
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

It's more likely that the protest causes huge damage to HK economy, and HK people start to get tired of it. At some point people may decide to take economic incentives from Beijing and become another city in China with some superficial autonomy status.

What is the value of not being disappeared? I highly doubt they would have any takers.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#47

Post by mytailorisrich »

loyukfai wrote: post #44
mytailorisrich wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, for Chinese these territorial issues are bigger that the Communist Party. In Western countries they would be called "bi-partisan" or "cross-parties" because there is a national consensus on them.

Am not so sure about this, the current emphasis on "territorial integrity" is IMO as much, if not more of, a result of PRC propaganda as established on any historical basis.

It is not PRC propaganda. It's the other way round: PRC propaganda exploits this national feeling.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#48

Post by stefan_ »

kenneth wrote: post #34
acd10j wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government.

> Can you rely on South China Morning Post (scmp.com) to be unbiased as their current owner is Chinese Alibaba Group ? Apart from mild criticisms, I don't think Alibaba group can afford to publish against Chinese government. Not sure why your comment was killed, because I think it's a valid question. But since it was, responding here. Yes, they're owned by Alibaba. I happen to know some SCMP employees which gives me…

You literally just have to open their front page to find them calling military deployments in a stadium near Hong Kong "drills", citing anonymous sources that say "they are not of concern" and quoting liberally from anonymous online-posters on Chinese message boards (sic!) spouting hate.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#49

Post by odiroot »

Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #21
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d". In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will. It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

As far as I've heard from Singaporeans, they didn't "annoy" Malaysia. Ethnic Chinese politicians got popular (well, especially Li Guangyao) and threatened the stability and harmony of majority Muslim Malay country.

As one Chinese taxi driver in Kedah told me, they were supposed to keep quiet and stay away from politics. At least back then, especially influential Malays feared their absolute power is in danger. Didn't help that Li (who always wanted Malaysia to be a state were every ethnicity has equal rights) openly spoke about how poor Malays are held back both by their religious and lay leaders.

Re: Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s Communist Party

#50

Post by adinobro »

ephemeralism wrote: post #25
londons_explore wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?

Why would they do this and not just continue to use riot police and tire the protesters out, as has recently been done with success in France?

That seems to be what they are doing.

University starts again soon and it is expected that the protests will loose steam.

That's a boring story so people don't talk about it.

Post reply on HN