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Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

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Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#41
post #24
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the problem of countries like Greece and Italy corruption?

Italy and Greece have always had corruption. But they didn't always have recession.

But they did pass ever higher, unsustainable debts to the next generation, which eventually forced them to face reality and stop paying for the corruption with seed corn.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#42

I thought it was going to be about Britain. They have been drivning towards the abyss in the last decades. I used to live in London. The difference in public infrastructure and company facilities between the UK and Northern Europe is quite staggering. Now, add the “Ever shrinking Britain” (Scotland leaving after Brexit…, Northern Ireland more part of EU/Ireland than Britain in the future?) to the events and it makes…

Yes, but the gap has been around since the 50s and was mostly born from Britain squandering their Marshall Plan aid playing at empire (instead of reconstruction) between 1948 and the Suez Crisis.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#43
So the largest problem here is the lack of competitiveness of Italian exports on the global market. That's creating a vicious cycle, where poorly performing exports depress wages and internal demand, leading the country to depend further on capricious foreign markets. This trend will continue, as lower-wage countries continue to intrude on traditional Italian products.

The solution should be to improve the competitiveness of Italian exports on the global market, which will serve as the foundation for economic growth. The article states this fairly plainly, and I agree. However, I don't think a government-led technological push, which the article advocates, is the solution to this.

Instead, the government should increase its spending on public infrastructure, while continuing to make structural reforms that allow businesses to organically diversify into more profitable areas. For all this article's talk about Italian labor deregulation, it's still very expensive to both grow and reduce labor in Italy. This is worsened by high corporate and individual taxes, which both depress demand and discourage business expansion. A middle class tax-cut, which worked well in Germany's "economic miracle," would help alleviate this.

And finally, Italy has major regional differences in wealth and productivity. The south of Italy is much poorer and much less productive, the result of years of subsidies that have prevented industry from sustaining private growth. Infrastructure improvements there, along with a reduction of crime, and the ever-present bogeyman of political corruption, would help tremendously, along with an overhaul of the redistributive system to encourage productivity and economic growth.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#44
post #34
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

The logical conclusion of most of these arguments seems to be that the US should have floating currencies between the states, to stop unfairly benefiting the few net productive export states?

I'd argue that taxing the rich more and funding non-broken-window public infrastructure is a better policy for growth.

Including investment in education, transport of all kinds, 'going green' (maybe even large new-generation clean-nukes), and also dangling carrots in front of RnD / upgrades likely to produce positive economic impacts.

Not mentioned, since the focus on European governments probably means universal healthcare, is universal healthcare as public infrastructure. That too would be a useful structural improvement and serve to reduce economic friction while improving worker productivity.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#45
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

So... is there some way to have both the benefits of multiple currencies and a single one? The convenience of a single currency in terms of cash is becoming less relevant as cash itself is used less, but my understanding is that the main theoretical benefit is that it strengthens the single market. Basically allows EU companies to have suppliers and customers in any EU state, without having to incur currency risks. How great is that benefit? Could some of it be achieved while allowing individual EU members to control their own monetary policy? Or on the other side, could the Euro be kept, but the negative effects somehow mitigated, perhaps via changes to transfer payments, maybe based on the difference between what would be the domestic currency value and the Euro?

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the long term goal is to transition the EU (over the course of multiple human generations) into a single nation, similar to the way the United States operates. In that case, the conditions you described are an expected part of the process. In the US the states and local municipalities have different economic situations, different taxes, etc. And if our states broke off into 50 currencies, some would ben…

Your thoughts are on point imo. One must never forget the context of how the EU and it’s main political objective came to be: the culmination of centuries of small scale wars and two world wars within 30 years of each other. Juncker - who is the only European politician who signed the Maastricht treaty in ‘92 still active today - reiterated at a 20 year commemoration mid January this year that for him, the European F…

Closer political union has been on the cards for a long time. Churchill post-WW2 (1948) said "Mutual aid in the economic field and joint military defence must inevitably be accompanied step by step with a parallel policy of closer political unity", and referred to a United States of Europe ("I was anxious at first lest the United States of America should view with hostility the idea of a United States of Europe"), with it being presented as a force for peace ("the German problem is to restore the economic life of Germany and revive the ancient fame of the German race without thereby exposing their neighbours and ourselves to any rebuilding or reassertion of their military power of which we still bear the scars. United Europe provides the only solution to this two-sided problem"). It's pre-EU, but clearly the ideas come from a similar place.

http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/WSCHague.html

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#47
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

Armchair economist here. Is it correct to say that a country like Italy, with its low productivity, constantly needs to devalue its currency to keep its production competitive; and that while doing so would effectively lower the wealth of the country, it could still keep an apparent growth of the salaries, so that there would be an incentive to internal consumption? And that what happens in Italy instead is that the wages need to shrink, which causes (a state close to) deflation, which causes even more saving and depresses internal consumption?

- Economic homogeneity across an entire nation state can only reasonably expected with small countries

Well, that is not true and probably not an issue. Every country has automatic mechanisms of wealth redistribution across its regions: California feeds most of the central US states. But the EU is a monetary unit without a proper redistribution mechanism between its regions: it's hard to convince the Germans that their tax money should subsidize Italy because it's part of a national unity.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#48
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the problem of countries like Greece and Italy corruption?

Austerity didn't help. The R&R paper that they based the austerity on turned out to not be properly peer reviewed, and surprise, had a some arthmetic errors that when fixed contradict the original result.

Wait what? Could you expand on that?

That seems to be very stupid "mistake" from some very important economists.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#49
post #14
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

Wasn't the problem of countries like Greece and Italy corruption?

Nope, I think corruption is more of an easy scapegoat. The corrupts are always the entrpreneurs and the politicians, which means the rich and powerful, which means someone else different from the people. Of course corruption is nothing positive and doesn't help, but it doesn't explain the huge amount of missing wealth.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#50
I am Italian. And I am happy to find out it was indeed the fault of EU.

Wow, what a relief! I thought we Italian were the problem!

I mean, we voted Democrazia Cristiana for decades, just because it had Cristiana in the name, and which party will do any effort to be re-elected when they know in advance they will be re-elected anyway?

I mean, I always heard bad things about corruption, but the corrupted politicians were elected by us, and corrupted by us as well!

I heard about "voto di scambio" (litteraly: exchange vote) many many times, but I never got it completely: you are granted anonimity in the voting booth, and you vote for a mafioso because you made a promise to him... You have the possibility to counter mafia's power and you vote for him! Are you an idiot or what?

And heroic judges payed with their life the effort to grant us a better country, and in the end they got to subvert that corrupted mess that the First Repubblica was, and we did end up voting for Berlusconi?!? A disgusting divorced guy, mingling with young prostitutes, and calling himself "Anointed of the Lord"?

It's true that the rest of the political class didn't make any effort to attract votes from non extremists. The few times Berlusconi was not governing, the only top priority was about homosexual rights. Nothing personally against it, but in such a catholic nation like Italy you cannot expect it to pass smoothly, and don't you think the whole nation would need some thought about economy and legality?

I don't like the two current top clowns, but I understand they are the "least worse".

And you want to blame Euro?

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