Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

I don't think his business really is venture capital, though. What exactly are you referring to?

At least, if you're talking about Venture for America, it's more of a YC or TechStars. It's a non-profit designed to help entrepreneurs start companies.

Prior to that, I think he was the CEO of Manhattan Prep before it getting acquired by Kaplan.

The whole political process is so tied up in entertainment now it's hard to see the lines between them anymore. It seems especially bad on the R side (surprise surprise) and I don't just mean the President, but it's affecting the entire institution of the Federal government.

Running for, and even attaining, office is a stepping stone to or enhancing move for an entertainment career, and vice-versa, in a way and to a degree I'm pretty sure it didn't used to be in the fairly recent past. And an entertainment career is even more of a feedback-loop into any other business ventures one might have than it used to be, and it already very much was. I mean, being a celebrity used to help with running for office for obvious reasons, but now running for office is a pretty good action to take if you want to become a celebrity.

"Enhance your personal brand today—run for office! Just remember, your number one goal isn't winning, it's raising your profile. If you happen to win that's great, but it's beside the point. Feel free to be crazy and weird. Worst case, run as an R and as long as your activities and personality are notorious enough you're guaranteed a steady income for the occasional appearance on Fox News as an expert in... well, doesn't matter really! Maybe they'll even give you your own show! Have a book ghostwritten—it's like free money!"

The majority of Americans are not insane and both mainstream Democrats and the incumbent are mostly appealing to the insane. A moderate, any moderate, left or right, that speaks logically, does not indulge in identity bullshit and does not treat the other side as if they were stupid or evil or both, will have a great shot at capturing the exhausted middle.

I'm bullish on Yang's and Buttigieg's chances in general. I also think that their chances of winning the nomination (and election) are much lower than the odds indicated in betting markets.

There is a huge betting market selection bias in that the only people using these betting platforms are young and tech-savvy (i.e. the type of people who are in these candidates' base). Additionally, you can place nominally small bets, meaning there is no real skin in the game. Increase the minimum bet size to $10,000 or so and I think the odds will become much more realistic.

There's another element in there - that older candidates simply have more history to contend with. That's not always a bad thing, like Bernie Sanders' presence in the anti-racism protests of the 60s. But it can be a bad thing, like Bernie Sanders having taken a trip to the USSR in 1988 (I won't disagree with anyone who says that isn't actually a thing to care about, but people do). Biden in particular is going to come up against a lot of issues for his previous zero-tolerance crime advocacy, and for the treatment of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings.

Younger candidates simply don't have to contend with that reckoning. But they have a lot less experience. You could make the case that experience should be good for a candidate, but that it doesn't always work out that way.