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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

nytimes.com

41–50 of 185 posts

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#41

If you want proof as to how taboo climate science skepticism has become, look at how quickly (less than ten minutes) my sourced, rational comment in this thread was down voted and flagged. Flagged! For skepticism!

Your flagged post began with an allegation of bad faith against the entire field of climate science.

edit: looks like it's not even flagged anymore.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#42
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just a layman, not a climate scientist, but I don't think the magnitude of the warming is our big issue. The issue is how quickly it's changing. Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years. Ours is happening a couple orders of magnitude faster. We can look back, not at the geological record, but at the biological record. Large, fast sh…

>Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years Here's the problem - we don't actually know how quickly historic shifts have occurred, because our evidence comes from geologic and fossil records that simply do not have good resolution past 1Ma or so. Especially consider all the doomsday runaway scenarios like the clathrate gun and melting per…

That's what I'm saying. Historical changes to the climate have occurred, maybe with similar rapidity, maybe slower, and they caused huge extinctions. The best case, I guess, is that the shift is slow AND life is hardier than we expected, and we get through it ok, maybe with just a few species disappearing.

But the downside risk is the extinction of a huge swath of life on Earth. (The first species to go, historically, have been big animals with high metabolisms--things with similar volume/surface area ratios as us)

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#43

If you want proof as to how taboo climate science skepticism has become, look at how quickly (less than ten minutes) my sourced, rational comment in this thread was down voted and flagged. Flagged! For skepticism!

The evidence is overwhelming.

There is no way to be a "rational" and "sourced" climate skeptic because all roads lead to the same conclusions.

People like you will cause millions of deaths over the next 100 years.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#44

It seems to me we are truly and globally fucked: 1. There were just massive protests and riots in France (a relatively ecologically-aware country) due to an increase in the diesel tax of about 8 cents a liter meant to help wean the country off carbon. As a result of the riots, the tax was cancelled. 2. Current US administration is going 180 degrees in the other direction, i.e. doing everything it can to support coal.…

I'm reminded of Stein's Law. It is not exactly right, but it is how I feel this will likely play out. At least if reduction in carbon emissions is the only card we have in our hand. I.e. we will stop emitting carbon when (for all practical purposes) we run out. Not before.

At some point I do expect people will start having more serious discussions about how much climate engineering we are willing to undertake. Certainly the upper atmosphere sulfur dioxide injection has some plausible utility, in addition to being short-lived should it prove counterproductive. Collectively, humans seem to have more appetite for engineering our way out of problems than conserving.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#45

I cannot take any of these reports seriously unless they are comparing emissions from each country on a per capita basis. This is an easy way to make US look like a responsible polluter compared to India and China. Its a different ball game, if you factor in the total emissions per capita over last 100 years, in which case, US emissions are probably a few multiples over China and India combined (that's my guess. I'm…

The planet will be just as warm if one person emits all the carbon as ten billion.

Also, reducing your population growth rate is a great way to reduce carbon emissions. A world with 500 million people living in luxury is arguably better than one with 15 billion where the living envy the dead.

Though you get to some key points. The most annoying issue is perhaps that China's emissions are largely a result of building crap for rich people in the US and Europe.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#46

It seems to me we are truly and globally fucked: 1. There were just massive protests and riots in France (a relatively ecologically-aware country) due to an increase in the diesel tax of about 8 cents a liter meant to help wean the country off carbon. As a result of the riots, the tax was cancelled. 2. Current US administration is going 180 degrees in the other direction, i.e. doing everything it can to support coal.…

I'm reminded of Stein's Law. It is not exactly right, but it is how I feel this will likely play out. At least if reduction in carbon emissions is the only card we have in our hand. I.e. we will stop emitting carbon when (for all practical purposes) we run out. Not before. At some point I do expect people will start having more serious discussions about how much climate engineering we are willing to undertake. Certai…

Option two, we can stop emitting when it becomes obsolete. That means two unforeseen technical miracles could save us, as opposed to just the one of climate engineering that works. I bet it would be a lot easier to organize a "moon landing" program for fusion or something like it than it would be to talk the entire world into reducing economic activity.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#47

If you want proof as to how taboo climate science skepticism has become, look at how quickly (less than ten minutes) my sourced, rational comment in this thread was down voted and flagged. Flagged! For skepticism!

Your flagged post began with an allegation of bad faith against the entire field of climate science. edit: looks like it's not even flagged anymore.

My "allegation of bad faith" is a regular topic on HN, because it is plaguing most soft sciences in modern academia. Climate science is not immune - especially because of it's practical unfalsifiabity. If science is broken then it's conclusions must be treated with skepticism - even if researches are on average well meaning.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#48
post #32

The article offhand mentions that we're on track for RCP 8.5, or 8.5 W/m^2 additional heat in 2100. That should fucking terrify you. That's 4 C global temperature rise, a .75 meter sea level rise, and a doubling of ocean acidity. Page 82 of the IPCC report[1] has some fast facts- at RCP 8.5 most of the wild animals on earth will start dying out from lack of freshwater. Corals and molluscs will die out, and all ocean…

This really needs to be the top comment. I don't understand how anyone is worried about any. other. problem. at this point.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#49

I cannot take any of these reports seriously unless they are comparing emissions from each country on a per capita basis. This is an easy way to make US look like a responsible polluter compared to India and China. Its a different ball game, if you factor in the total emissions per capita over last 100 years, in which case, US emissions are probably a few multiples over China and India combined (that's my guess. I'm…

Earth's atmosphere doesn't care about per-capita emissions - it just cares about absolute concentrations of greenhouse gases. If you want to solve the problem, largest (in absolute terms - not per capita) emitters need to cut back. Somewhere in the world one human emits more CO2 per capita than everyone else in the world. If they stop emitting, we haven't solved anything.

Earth's atmosphere doesn't care about geo-political boundaries either

Countries won't solve it. If Americans can own up to the fact that per capita reduction in co2 emissions by them, will have a huge effect on co2 emissions in the world (because that means practices/regulations/technology that'll trickle down to largest polluting countries.), then it'll mean genuine difference.

American media has no right to point fingers at countries that has never been among the highest per capita polluters in the world, and has been so historically. Sadly, Americans (those who are into virtue signaling) are too hung up on stuff fed by NYT to realize that they have been polluting the most, and them pontificating to others will help no one.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#50

I cannot take any of these reports seriously unless they are comparing emissions from each country on a per capita basis. This is an easy way to make US look like a responsible polluter compared to India and China. Its a different ball game, if you factor in the total emissions per capita over last 100 years, in which case, US emissions are probably a few multiples over China and India combined (that's my guess. I'm…

Earth's atmosphere doesn't care about per-capita emissions - it just cares about absolute concentrations of greenhouse gases. If you want to solve the problem, largest (in absolute terms - not per capita) emitters need to cut back. Somewhere in the world one human emits more CO2 per capita than everyone else in the world. If they stop emitting, we haven't solved anything.

That person sounds Despicable. :)
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