I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…
Note: when you make a don't pass bet, not only are the odds still slightly against you, at least 10 other people at the table will hate you too :)
Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
41–50 of 55 posts
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#42Or: go to the courthouse to get on a payment plan or ask the judge to waive the ticket or let you perform community service. It's not like you're the only person ever who hasn't been able to pay a ticket, that scenario gets handled all the time with zero drama.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#43Tangent: I always thought state sanctioned lotteries were highly immoral. Sure, they want the tax revenue, but poor people are disproportionately the victims of what feels like fraud. The people believe that have a chance at winning what they most certainly do not. It's like reverse welfare- taxing the poor and uneducated for the benefit of the masses.
Tangent: Not at all. In fact, I wrote this up because of a conversation I had a while back with a man buying a lottery ticket at the gas station. I was talking with him about how bad the odds were, and he fully admitted that he was getting terrible odds on that dollar. But he figured that on the one in a million chance that he hit the jackpot, even if he only saw a quarter of that amount he could actually get out of…
Also people greatly overestimate their odds of winning big prizes like that. If the odds of winning the lottery were 1 in a million I'd be buying tickets by the truckload.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#44I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…
The catch here that the author was trying to tease out is that marginal utility is not always a smooth curve. Sometimes it is a step function, which changes the rules around the step. Tax brackets are another classic example. Sometimes you get much more by being paid a little less. Edit: The tax thing was a brain glitch and not true IRL. Check Matt's comment below. There may be true life examples where you come out a…
You only pay the higher rate for income within that bracket.
Making an extra dollar pushing your taxable income to $34,001 as a single American in 2010 does not raise your Federal taxes from $5100.00 to $8500.25 by naïvely applying the higher rate — it actually raises your taxes by 25¢ from $4681.10 to $4681.35.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#45I do not think the reasoning in this piece is solid. Firstly the concept of expected value only make sense over repeated trials of the same experiment and using it here on a one off is a misapplication. Unless the person is expecting many such tickets. At which point the combination of the person's stupidity and statistical variance will have them broke a lot quicker. The expected value is no more meaningful as a dol…
I'm either gonna win $130 with 47% chance or lose $130 with 53% chance. My $250 bill is sunk and completely independent of this decision and outcome. Otherwise any time I have an expensive bill to pay and will be left with only about $130 why not gamble it save the amount I need to pay in the long run. This is the start of a gambling problem. No, you're missing the point: the $250 is, indeed, a sunk cost. The $100 fe…
Life is a series of one time decisions. You might not get the same exact gamble again, but you'll get many others, and if you keep taking ones with positive expectation you'll end up ahead in the long run.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#46I do not think the reasoning in this piece is solid. Firstly the concept of expected value only make sense over repeated trials of the same experiment and using it here on a one off is a misapplication. Unless the person is expecting many such tickets. At which point the combination of the person's stupidity and statistical variance will have them broke a lot quicker. The expected value is no more meaningful as a dol…
I'm either gonna win $130 with 47% chance or lose $130 with 53% chance. My $250 bill is sunk and completely independent of this decision and outcome. Otherwise any time I have an expensive bill to pay and will be left with only about $130 why not gamble it save the amount I need to pay in the long run. This is the start of a gambling problem. No, you're missing the point: the $250 is, indeed, a sunk cost. The $100 fe…
Then there is the other part.
You can't ignore utility. Heard of loss aversion before? How people prefer more risk when it is supposed to mitigate a loss? This is a textbook example of that psychological fallacy. Am I willing to risk a further $130 to avert my loss? No, not in this situation, considering my actions and the increased utility the money has to me as a poor college student. But phrased this way most people would take the risk!
I look at it this way. I am not willing to take an even odds bet of $130 that a coin will turn up heads, especially when I already owe $250. Are you? Most people are risk averse when the situation is phrased properly. If you are willing to take the bet then you derive less utility from the money and so are not applying the correct mental context of a cash strapped individual. Unless a poor appreciation of money is why this individual is cash strapped in the first place.
And finally, there is the fact that this could breed irresponsibility in many people. They do it once, win and a lesson is not learned. Increased likelihood of repeated behaviour and say the bet is lost the next time we have more money lost than if the bitterness of the fine had been instilled. They would have to do this enough times for the law of large numbers to kick in for them to approach their expected loss. Worse is if this becomes a general philosophy toward bills. Oversimplification of course but the point remains.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm either gonna win $130 with 47% chance or lose $130 with 53% chance. My $250 bill is sunk and completely independent of this decision and outcome. Otherwise any time I have an expensive bill to pay and will be left with only about $130 why not gamble it save the amount I need to pay in the long run. This is the start of a gambling problem. No, you're missing the point: the $250 is, indeed, a sunk cost. The $100 fe…
Actually EV "makes sense" even when applied only once. You should take any positive EV gamble you can at any time you can, and avoid the opposite. Life is a series of one time decisions. You might not get the same exact gamble again, but you'll get many others, and if you keep taking ones with positive expectation you'll end up ahead in the long run.
Short of it is: I don't agree. Those other situations are not the same event as this and even often completely unrelated. You cant lump them into the same space and claim positive expectation on their value.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#48I don't think this is the common case, but there are cases where that makes sense, for instance if keeping a license enables you to keep a job that will allow you to easily pay off the debt, or, if you multiplied the numbers by 1000, and assumed the poor person was willing to declare bankruptcy. In that case, you might have a point; Really, I think this is why buying a house at a time of obvious volatility is such a good deal, assuming you have no other assets. If prices go up, you have put 5% down on an asset that is appreciating quickly. In the up market, housing was appreciating at north of 10% a year; that's 10% of the total home value, of which you maybe put down 5%. If prices go down? you walk.
The question, in that case, is how much does declaring bankruptcy cost? I mean, you have the up front lawyer costs... then you have the problems associated with having bad credit. but I can see many cases where taking the gamble would make sense.
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#49I clicked through expecting to be disappointed... but by golly, there's something to this. An imminent, disproportionate late-fee can make a less-than-even chance of instant liquidity more valuable than a more-than-even chance of larger loss. Of course, assuming any reasonable credit is available at all, and that the person is not in permanent deficit unable to eventually pay back a loan, would give rise to a dominan…
As in: seconds before BofA or some other institution is about to pillage someone for $30, the 'angel' swoops in with a just-in-time loan, charging the person (in fees and interest) any amount less than $30 -- and lower with more competition. It's called a credit card or savings account. If you have a credit card, you can't overdraw it. Or you can link your checking account to it, avoiding the "we're loaning you money…
The theory of the 'guardian angel' service is that it handles things even when you forget. It presupposes that there's some way to give the service total visibility into your imminent payment deadlines -- of course right now that doesn't exist, and the businesses that rely on late fees for their margin may not want it to.
But this might be an appropriate area for an industry consortium or even regulation to create a clearinghouse. If you're about to fine someone $X for an amount due up to $Y, you have to broadcast it on some confidential national clearinghouse an hour before assessment, allowing a contracted representative of the target to settle it on their behalf. If you do this, your fine is considered reasonable and customary; if you don't, it's presumed to be trickery and held to a higher standard.
I agree it's farfetched. But when we're talking contrived scenarios where people living hand-to-mouth should play roulette, the imagination wanders!
Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
The catch here that the author was trying to tease out is that marginal utility is not always a smooth curve. Sometimes it is a step function, which changes the rules around the step. Tax brackets are another classic example. Sometimes you get much more by being paid a little less. Edit: The tax thing was a brain glitch and not true IRL. Check Matt's comment below. There may be true life examples where you come out a…
No you don't. Earning more never causes you to take hom eless after taxes (at least in any country I know of). That's a common fallacy about them amongst people who don't understand the tax code. Tax rates are marginal. So for instance if the tax rate was 20% up to $100k, then 30% afterward, you'd pay 20% on your first $100k, then 30% from $100,001 and up.
That introduces some distortions into house pricing, making it very difficult to sell a house in the £250,000 to £265,000 range - because you are competing with houses just under the threshold which work out significantly cheaper for the buyer. As someone selling a house which falls into that price range, you might be better off asking for slightly less from the sale (versus asking for just over the threshold and waiting much longer to find a buyer).