Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants • Hacker News Board

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#41

Post by laughingman2 » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:16 AM UTC

michaelscott wrote: post #31

extralego wrote: post #19

I am confused about something that seems very basic, and hoping somebody can help me out with this. I have always supported left politics, and I think I understand the basics of supply-and-demand economics. If immigrants come to the US looking for work instead of bringing work, there should be a higher supply of labor, driving the low-end pay-rate down. Given that the low-end rate has gone down significantly througho…

A higher supply of cheaper labour does contribute to the reduced pay but by far the biggest influence is the stagnation of wages over those 3 decades (i.e. it's not that wages have gone down, they just largely haven't gone up). Average, inflation adjusted wage growth has been projected as low as 0.2% year on year in some cases, and this affects most forms of work not just the low end.

With all the productivity gains, if the wage growth has been far less, it's clear who is to take a huge part of the blame, hint hint, big corporations who also evade paying taxes.

Its almost as if they don't want a vibrant middle class to spend, thereby dooming themselves in the long run with stagnation.

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#42

Post by growlist » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:16 AM UTC

nickserv wrote: post #21

grosjona wrote: post #9

Current policies will give more opportunities for Americans. Trump understands something that technology elites don't; the wealth pie is limited and you have to be deliberate in how you slice it and who you give those slices to.

Shutting out skilled, educated immigrants doesn't magically make natives more skilled nor better educated. Take a look at the UK and Brexit, they're having problems hiring enough health care professionals precisely because of their desired post-EU immigration policies. This before they even apply any new rules!

Another way to put this is to say the NHS is insufficiently funded to survive without ongoing imports of cheap labour from poorer countries. The problem would be better solved by reforming the NHS/its funding so that we incentivise the existing population to provide its workforce. Surely propping it up with ceaseless immigration is a ponzi scheme?

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#43

Post by xtreme » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:16 AM UTC

cylinder wrote: post #27

Daishiman wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your assertion that the problems of H1B visas outweigh the benefits is pure conjecture and, for the most part, not supported by facts.

It's all much ado about nothing anyways. 85,000 new H1 visas a year for a population of 330 million? Give me a break. Even if these all went to Wipro it wouldn't even be worth thinking twice about. And the refugee intake is only 49,000 a year. An absolute disgrace.

I am genuinely curious to find out which number or percentage you'd consider a reasonable number or immigrants to admit each year, and how you arrived at that number. Are there any published studies that have tried to calculate this?

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#44

Post by skybrian » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:20 AM UTC

extralego wrote: post #19

I am confused about something that seems very basic, and hoping somebody can help me out with this. I have always supported left politics, and I think I understand the basics of supply-and-demand economics. If immigrants come to the US looking for work instead of bringing work, there should be a higher supply of labor, driving the low-end pay-rate down. Given that the low-end rate has gone down significantly througho…

Immigrants increase both labor supply (by working) and demand (by buying things). People often forget the demand part.

Businesses in an area that was losing population can benefit from immigrants moving in. A shrinking community isn't good for business.

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#45

Post by extralego » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:32 AM UTC

js8 wrote: post #34

extralego wrote: post #19

I am confused about something that seems very basic, and hoping somebody can help me out with this. I have always supported left politics, and I think I understand the basics of supply-and-demand economics. If immigrants come to the US looking for work instead of bringing work, there should be a higher supply of labor, driving the low-end pay-rate down. Given that the low-end rate has gone down significantly througho…

Also leftist but pro-immigration.. (although not American) I don't have a complete answer but I would point out that some of these immigrants do bring work, eventually. There is a photograph of Sergey Brinn in the article, Steve Jobs is another example. Also, economically, I am of the opinion that consumption is what drives the modern economy (for better or worse). The production is then typically figured out from th…

Sergeant Brinn went to Stanford. Steve Jobs went to Reed. Can you articulate an even somewhat critical relation between these examples and the minimum wage? I’m just not seeing it, but open if someone can connect the dots.

I was unable to go to college without massive student loans and now I can’t afford to have children despite working obsessive hours.

> I am of the opinion that consumption is what drives the modern economy (for better or worse).

What about having a productive and efficient economy? I was looking at this recently:

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/labor-force-partic...

Our labor force participation rate is drastically lower than Europe’s. Not sure why but I remember a post on HN a few days ago where a homeless American programmer was asking for advice and more people than not recommended that he not take a minimum wage job because it would barely help and take all his time. True he had programming experience but this is a homeless person. If being homeless is not enough to justify a low-end job, it seems like a stretch to think this is an economy that can work. Again, what am a I missing? Are you not worried that you’re wrong? Economics is difficult stuff which is why i am asking.

> The production is then typically figured out from that.

Poor people consumer almost entirely cheap-labor made imports, often made in free-trade manufacturing zones (sweat shops) so this is not computing at all for me.

This is at least not the left I signed up for when I was in high school. We hated sweat shops.

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#46

Post by Anita_kiss » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:37 AM UTC

1. Infants are not automatically US citizen when born in the US 2. The US needs more highly qualified workers.

How is the birthright changing that? (argument that every baby could be the next Einstein is not sufficient)

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#47

Post by qubex » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:40 AM UTC

extralego wrote: post #19

I am confused about something that seems very basic, and hoping somebody can help me out with this. I have always supported left politics, and I think I understand the basics of supply-and-demand economics. If immigrants come to the US looking for work instead of bringing work, there should be a higher supply of labor, driving the low-end pay-rate down. Given that the low-end rate has gone down significantly througho…

You’re thinking in what is known as “the big lump of employment” mode: i.e., that there is some fixed demand for total labour in a country and that it will be apportioned out according to the lowest salaries. This is generally countered with the idea that as population rises (including due to immigration) more support jobs are needed – for example, as population rises you need proportionally more healthcare, and those extra health workers will need more consumer goods which means there’ll be more stores to sell stuff to them and more cashiers & cetera.

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#48

Post by belorn » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:46 AM UTC

Arguing immigration policy is usually better to do based on morality. Economic grounds is a hard proposition, since assuming the government budget is balanced we can split any given population in two groups; one which under a given time frame increases budget deficit when grown and the other which causes surplus when grown.

If we only look at the economical aspect then the question about immigration is simply a crass question about averages. If the average applicant with their dependents are in the later group for the defined time frame then its a good policy to allow and encourage growth, and if its not then its better to prohibit. Here in Sweden a researcher did such study and unsurprisingly the result showed that for the time frame of 20 years the state economics from immigration is a net negative. It is very possible that over an enough large time frame that result will change but their study could not make such predictions.

The averages for H1B applicants and their dependents could be different but the article here only cite a study that correlate economic growth for companies that hire skilled immigrants. Its a good incentive for doing more studies but I would focus the moral perspective of liberty and humanitarian aid when it comes to immigration policy. I have strong doubt that a rigorous economic study would fall in favor of immigration for any time frame less than 50-100 years, based on my own reasoning, guesses and historical knowledge.

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#49

Post by halflings » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:48 AM UTC

peterburkimsher wrote: post #37

Immigration policies already set a very high barrier to entry, especially considering that 20% of the US population is functionally illiterate [1]. Immigration is the only hope for me to ever have a family. I was born in Switzerland to British parents who lived in France (in Geneva this is not unusual). Because I'm a citizen by descent, I can't pass on nationality to future children. My girlfriend is Taiwanese, and I…

If you work in software (not clear from your post) you should be able to easily find a job in the UK. Companies will usually take care of VISA sponsorship.

Otherwise, France now has a new VISA policy for talented engineers and similar profiles ("Passeport Talent"[0]).

[0] https://france-visas.gouv.fr/web/france-visas/passeport-tale...

Re: Watch What Happens When You Push Away Skilled Immigrants

#50

Post by akhilcacharya » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 7:52 AM UTC

Anita_kiss wrote: post #46

1. Infants are not automatically US citizen when born in the US 2. The US needs more highly qualified workers. How is the birthright changing that? (argument that every baby could be the next Einstein is not sufficient)

It represents an anchor to their adopted community. This is good for integration. Remove it, and the immigrant can decide to go back for whatever reason.

Birthright citizenship is one of the defining reasons for America's continued economic and cultural dominance. The American dream as we know it does not exist without it.