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AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

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Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#41

Post by njarboe »

radium3d wrote: post #27

AMD has been my best investment so far. I've always loved them as they've been the rebellious underdog and have brought competitively powerful CPUs into the affordable range for historically low income computer nerds such as myself multiple times. Bitcoin/crypto would have been my next best-- if only I hadn't had my bitcoins stolen from an early mining pool... oh well.

AMD has historically not been a very good stock to invest in long term. For speculation it can be great as it has had many periods of high volatility (tried to this without much luck in the dotcom era). Check out its price history[1]. It was also worth $16 in 1980, and has not paid out dividends in decades. You should determine a time or price to sell (at least some shares) as it is likely to head back down to $2 eventually. Maybe this time will be different?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD?p=AMD&.tsrc=fin-srch-v1

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#42

Post by westpfelia »

KaoruAoiShiho wrote: post #20
nodesocket wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol, insider trading? :-) Do have the original comment thread?

Probably not insider trading lol. AMD was extensively shilled on /r/wallstreetbets and /r/amd_stock for 2 years now.

idk about shilled on /r/wsb.. The sub just loves volatile stocks and everyone was making money on it so people talked about it. For a while it was $IQ and in the days leading towards earnings it was msft.

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#43

Post by quickthrower2 »

sumedh wrote: post #35
radium3d wrote: post #27

AMD has been my best investment so far. I've always loved them as they've been the rebellious underdog and have brought competitively powerful CPUs into the affordable range for historically low income computer nerds such as myself multiple times. Bitcoin/crypto would have been my next best-- if only I hadn't had my bitcoins stolen from an early mining pool... oh well.

> Bitcoin/crypto would have been my next best You probably would have sold the bitcoins before it went crazy up.

If you had any sense, you would have, ironically

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#44

Post by mcny »

zaarn wrote: post #40
chadmeister wrote: post #30

And they're about to drop their new 24 & 32-core threadripper CPUs in a few weeks, for which Intel has no economically viable response. AMD is going is going to crush their earning reports for the next few quarters.

Well, Intel does want to put out the 28 core i9 eventually. Hopefully with a free industrial chiller.

This is what I don’t understand. I thought all Intel has to do is to price its offerings cheaper to become competitive with AMD. They have the margins, don’t they? Or is it not possible to lower prices?

From all I’ve read it feels like Intel dug itself into a hole with price segmentation but that means it can dig itself out by simply not being as greedy?

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#45

Post by J0-nas »

radium3d wrote: post #27

AMD has been my best investment so far. I've always loved them as they've been the rebellious underdog and have brought competitively powerful CPUs into the affordable range for historically low income computer nerds such as myself multiple times. Bitcoin/crypto would have been my next best-- if only I hadn't had my bitcoins stolen from an early mining pool... oh well.

Are you concerned about the state of AMD GPUs?

They couldn't compete in terms of high end performance for a long time. But nowadays they even lose the price-performance ratio of entry->mid level GPUs.

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#46

Post by dnautics »

citilife wrote: post #17
eachro wrote: post #8

How is AMD doing in the GPU for deep learning business? Have they completely ceded that market to Nvidia?

Their GPUs for deep learning are nearly non-existant, as others have mentioned there are projects and support, but... not worth the effort essentially. On the other hand, with the rise of their cheaper CPUs and APUs, I'd actually expect that to change. From a power perspective and eventually the ubiquity, it'll make sense to provide more support.

I will say you can use their gpus for deep learning. Not super performant and stuck on tensorflow 1.4, but it's not terrible, and certainly better than CPU.

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#47

Post by zaarn »

mcny wrote: post #44
zaarn wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Intel does want to put out the 28 core i9 eventually. Hopefully with a free industrial chiller.

This is what I don’t understand. I thought all Intel has to do is to price its offerings cheaper to become competitive with AMD. They have the margins, don’t they? Or is it not possible to lower prices? From all I’ve read it feels like Intel dug itself into a hole with price segmentation but that means it can dig itself out by simply not being as greedy?

This is speculation to some extend, but I don't think it'll be that easy.

Intel does have margins on their products but at the same time, the products are still expensive. I fault their production method for that. I bet that even if they sold their CPUs at a loss, AMD could undercut them in the important market segments at minimum.

AMD has struck gold with being able to, in Intel's words, glue together a bunch of desktop CPUs.

Intel's biggest CPU, a 28 core, is a monolithic die. All in one go. Which means the yields are bad. AMD produces basically 1 die and glues together as needed. The yields here are much better due to the smaller die and being able to use basically any die that has functioning 2 cores.

Intel doesn't have a response to that since if their 28 core die has 26 defect cores, they don't have a housing for it to sell in. Their segmentation also means that they don't have compatible sockets in size to even conceivable put the 28 core to use at all.

IMO Intel will have to come up with a similarly modular response or reduce their production cost.

Of course, Intel has a while, they can idle a few years on marketshare and mindshare before they run a risk of loosing the CPU business (and they sell other silicon too where AMD doesn't compete). So likely, they will be able to do it.

Question then is how much marketshare AMD will have eaten by then.

(Personally, I hope AMD will release server cpus for the lower market segment, building an Intel-based Server that doesn't have the suck is rather expensive and low-cost baremetal would be a delight for hobbyists and SMB)

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#48

Post by adventured »

mcny wrote: post #44
zaarn wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Intel does want to put out the 28 core i9 eventually. Hopefully with a free industrial chiller.

This is what I don’t understand. I thought all Intel has to do is to price its offerings cheaper to become competitive with AMD. They have the margins, don’t they? Or is it not possible to lower prices? From all I’ve read it feels like Intel dug itself into a hole with price segmentation but that means it can dig itself out by simply not being as greedy?

They've got two problems in that scenario.

First, anti-competitive. They're a monopolist in microprocessors for desktop / laptop. They've been allowed to retain that monopoly so long as they behave a certain way. They could try to squeeze AMD out of the market with very aggressive price cutting, and that would definitely be viewed as anti-competitive behavior by the US Government (and plausibly the EU and China; China is just starting to see the fruits of a very potent deal with AMD that could revolutionize their ability to build domestic processors to compete with Intel, zero chance they want to see Intel bury AMD now).

Second, there are few things investors hate to see more than aggressive margin erosion in a core product. Intel will restrain themselves from using that as a competitive hammer until or unless there are no other options (and by then it may be too late). They have a very large amount of margin to give up, doing so would have very damaging consequences to their stock. Intel's stock was in a pit of hell for 15 years, since the dotcom implosion. They just finally climbed out of that in the last year. They're sporting 25-27% style net income margins, which are classic Intel solid figures. They could smoke AMD any day of the week by smashing their margins, making processors entirely unprofitable for AMD and driving them out of the business, and then raising prices back to where they were. It's likely they simply can't reasonably take the risk entailed in doing that (both regulatory and Wall Street).

Re: AMD stock rises after best earnings in 7 years

#50

Post by redtuesday »

If the rumor [0] that Intel's first 10nm server chip will only release mid 2020 is true, then AMD's shares will probably skyrocket again if they truly can release their Zen 2 server CPU mid 2019 (on 7nm which is comparable to Intel's 10nm).

[0] https://twitter.com/david_schor/status/1022142835989118977

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