Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#41

Post by jcranmer » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:25 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #28

startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> But if it's overvalued then short the stock! To put the disclaimer up front: I have. I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms. As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wild…

It's possible to see it as not wildly overvalued if you think that they will hold significant market share in all of those different markets.

That said, it's still hard to see how they can get there, considering that at present, they are the smallest mass-market car company by volume (if you want to call them mass market), a non-entity in the energy business, and a small player in an oversaturated solar market--and the synergy between solar and car manufacturing doesn't really exist.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#42

Post by derekp7 » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:26 PM UTC

rb808 wrote: post #31

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

Probably best to get a plug in hybrid for now. Looks like there is much more choice. In a few years things will be different. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/04/plug-hybrid-electric-ve...

I've been thinking about the trade offs between a high-range EV vs. a PHEV. For me, a pure EV with less than 500 mile range couldn't be my only car, however it could be a secondary car (used for daily commuting, then switch over to something that takes gasoline if I'm away for the weekend).

But even for a daily driver, most days I only need about 50 miles range on most days. So for a Tesla model S or 3, I'd be hauling around the weight and expense of a 250 - 350 mile range battery that I won't be using 95% of the time. So I'd rather have a 60-mile battery (like the Volt), but with a high performance electric motor (like a model S), and a very low HP (small) ICE engine that won't add much weight. For extended-range driving, the electric motor would provide acceleration while the ICE directly powers the rear wheels and provides cruising (and mild charging when the battery gets too low).

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#43

Post by flexie » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:30 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

First, Tesla is not running out of cash. Tesla has a very attractive margin on every car it sells (and now it produces 7,000 of them weekly). The only reason they are losing money is large spending on R&D, SG&A, and in production capacity to satisfy a huge demand. Those are investments any tech company in their shoes would keep high while scaling up.

Second, most competitors are years away. Tesla is producing and shipping their mid priced car already, while most others are merely announcing, planning and developing theirs. If you want a 200 mile range, Nissan Leaf is already a decent competitor, though.

Most of us would like longer ranges (300 miles or more), and there is literally no other company than Tesla with EVs of that range. The EVs from VW, BMW, Daimler etc. are not on the market until maybe 2020, and with shorter range. Their second attempt will be ready 2-3 years after given the usual production cycle. By mid 2020, Tesla likely has substantially longer range than 300 miles and lower prices than $54,000, and they may very well be close to producing 1,000,000 EVs yearly (they just need to double current production rate once per year to achieve that).

By 2022-2023, when the competitors are finally ready with cars that can compete with the 2018 Tesla model 3, I bet Tesla is already down in the upper end of the low priced segment or the lower end of the mid priced segment and that they produce several millions of EVs yearly.

Like you, I would love for the others to catch up. Competition is good. But I increasingly doubt it will happen.

Tesla can literally just copy their current production lines a number of times at different places in the world, wait for the battery efficiency to improve as it has done every year, wait for battery price to drop, as it has done every year, while expanding their charging networks. Not that I think they won't keep innovating. It's just that they are so far ahead already.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#44

Post by paidleaf » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:31 PM UTC

d0lph wrote: post #5

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the fact they sell cars makes Tesla a real car company already.

You are not wrong. It's just that Bloomberg requires their journalists to push out fluff everyday.

Whenever you see a headline posed as a question, it's certain to be nonsense. News should be factual, not rhetorical or philosophical.

Will an asteroid strike the earth? Are aliens hiding from us?

I really hope the news business model changes in the near future because it's getting so clickbaity and useless. Today's news is to real news what junk food is to real food. For joyous few years, the internet and social media was a refuge from news. Now, we are inundated with news.

Would be nice if the news stuck to facts, events or data.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#45

Post by _lbaq » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:32 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #27

sorenjan wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jaguar i-Pace Volkswagen e-Golf Renault ZOE

Jaguar i-Pace ...which hasn't been released yet. Volkswagen e-Golf ...which has an EPA range of "89 to 125 mi" [1] Renault ZOE ...which has a "likely EPA rating of perhaps 150 miles" [2] and "mandatory battery hire" [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Golf#Volkswagen_e-G... [2] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111560_renault-zoe-sti...

The Zoe (the new 41 kWh) goes around 250 km and the battery hire is not mandatory, but pretty smart in IMO, Renault replaces the battery if its breaks or goes below 75% charge, when you sell the car the status of the battery is a non-issue, there is a road assistance insurance baked into it as well.

The fact that you do not own the battery is also reflected in the price of the vehicle, it would take us 8 years to reach a break even, I have not yet owned a car for 8 years.

A nice bonus is that the Zoe got the highest possible score on a corrosion test, a big thing where I live since roads are frequently sprayed with salt winter time.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#46

Post by alex_duf » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:35 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

The renault zoe has a range of 200 real miles, if only car dealers knew how to sell them...

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#47

Post by alex_duf » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:41 PM UTC

rb808 wrote: post #31

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

Probably best to get a plug in hybrid for now. Looks like there is much more choice. In a few years things will be different. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/04/plug-hybrid-electric-ve...

PHEV vehicules are great, except you get the complexity of both engines, for the price of both.

Electric cars have an order of magnitude less moving parts, barely any maintenance to do on them (no need to change the brakes, no oil, no filter on the engine...)

I can see why PHEV are appealing right now, but they are not a good long term decision.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#48

Post by rb808 » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:42 PM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #42

rb808 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably best to get a plug in hybrid for now. Looks like there is much more choice. In a few years things will be different. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/04/plug-hybrid-electric-ve...

I've been thinking about the trade offs between a high-range EV vs. a PHEV. For me, a pure EV with less than 500 mile range couldn't be my only car, however it could be a secondary car (used for daily commuting, then switch over to something that takes gasoline if I'm away for the weekend). But even for a daily driver, most days I only need about 50 miles range on most days. So for a Tesla model S or 3, I'd be haulin…

I'd buy a BMW 330e over a Tesla any day. I think much more realistic at this stage of the tech curve. (to be clear I'm not going to buy either) (To be clearer I can't afford either)

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#49

Post by crusso » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 3:53 PM UTC

athenot wrote: post #11

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

As of now, yes. The 2019 Nissan LEAF is projected to have meet your range requirement. I've had the 2013 and the 2015 models, they are good cars in their own right. If they made them slightly larger (but not an SUV), I'd be getting my 3rd one this year.

We love our leaf. Yeah, it's not the sexiest car, but the economics and fun to drive factor make it the goto vehicle for running around town.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#50

Post by jeffreyrogers » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 4:10 PM UTC

gcb0 wrote: post #36

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't pass US (and I would imagine European) crash test requirements.

like japanese cars couldn't pass US crash tests in the 80s? How well that worked out for US automakers?

Sure, I'm not saying they can't catch up, but meeting US crash test requirements will probably cause prices to go up. Plus labor is significantly cheaper in China. There are certainly things China can do much more efficiently in the US, but many of those efficencies shrink when you have to pay US labor costs and comply with US regulations. Of course, you could deregulate and allow more immigration to the US to compensate, but both of these are hard sells politically.