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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#41

Post by meritt »

annerajb wrote: post #32
meritt wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Several months ago this would have been unthinkable Unthinkable? Their Q4-16 Shareholder letter [1] (Feb 22nd, 2017) stated: "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018." On July 2nd, 2017 Musk forecasted [2] 20,000 per month by Dec…

Right. And his whole timeline shifted right by 6 month when they didn't start production as they expected a few weeks afterwards. Giving this the new estimate is placed to summer 2018.

The first shift was 3-months, as of Nov 2017 [1]: "We currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018".

When that was missed, it was pushed back again to Q2-18. It looks like those shifting goalposts have finally been met but for the above poster to call it "unthinkable" is absurd. It's the exact messaging we've been hearing for at least a year and a half.

[1] http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/d68bddfe-6f2b-4f8f-bed0-94d...

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#42

Post by Nokinside »

pkaye wrote: post #6

Can anyone tell me why they are taking a long time to ramp up? This is not their first electric car and electric cars are supposed to have a lot fewer components than gasoline engine cars.

Producing low volume luxury cars and mass market $35,000 cars is very different. Mass manufactured cars must be designed for the manufacturing process in mind. Tesla is still constantly tweaking with the manufacturing process. The Model 3's they are delivering are still prototypes.

Tesla's knows how to make the electric 'skateboard' and it's technically far ahead of others. They are struggling with the traditional parts.

Munro Associates did completely Model 3 teardown and report for some customer. Munro said in a interview that had Tesla outsourced the manufacture and design of of the car minus the scateboard to a company like Magna they would have hit every target and even Toyota would be crapping their pants now. If the traditional mechanical parts of the car would have been even decent, Tesla would have mopped the floor with everybody.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#43

Post by Someone1234 »

stingraycharles wrote: post #23
williamscales wrote: post #21

"It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time." I think this is the million dollar question—was this just a sprint effort to hit a milestone for PR sake or will they produce 5000 next week too?

I think it’s a good question to ask, but it doesn’t mean the milestone was meaningless. Several months ago this would have been unthinkable, and the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway.

> the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway.

Wasn't it in multiple letters to shareholders? It is literally an update to debtors on the company's position, far from arbitrary.

Were Tesla required to give an estimate? Nope. But doing so may be used to attract further investment into the company, so it is far from innocent.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#44

Post by aphextron »

raverbashing wrote: post #35
aphextron wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

You can have AC on big tents, and I would be surprised if they didn't as your external 40C could easily become dangerous in a literal greenhouse. At least forced ventilation is needed.

>You can have AC on big tents, and I would be surprised if they didn't as your external 40C could easily become dangerous in a literal greenhouse.

"The tent doesn’t have air conditioning, according to the city documents." [0]

It hit 90 in Fremont yesterday...

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/the-futur...

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#45

Post by colordrops »

pwinnski wrote: post #34
colordrops wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the skepticism. He's not claiming to have built a perpetual motion machine. Even if it were the case that it's just a burst, it demonstrates feasibility. Of course the lines will get augmented and more efficient with time. It's not like there's some law of physics preventing regular deliveries of 5000 cars a week.

The skepticism is simple: Musk has a history of making schedule pronouncements that fall through. He predicted they'd hit this milestone last year, and they didn't. In fact, he predicted they'd be far beyond this milestone by now, and they aren't. And he really, really, really hates it when people point how his broken promises and failed claims, so it's reasonable to expect he might be trying to play with some smoke…

Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. They met the 5000 car a week goal. There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week. Is your claim that you are skeptical that they can ever hit a regular 5000 cars a week?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#46

Post by IshKebab »

raverbashing wrote: post #35
aphextron wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

You can have AC on big tents, and I would be surprised if they didn't as your external 40C could easily become dangerous in a literal greenhouse. At least forced ventilation is needed.

There was a video linked of the "tent" and the ends are open, so I don't think AC would work.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#47

Post by dagenix »

saas_co_de wrote: post #39
williamscales wrote: post #21

"It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time." I think this is the million dollar question—was this just a sprint effort to hit a milestone for PR sake or will they produce 5000 next week too?

They definitely cannot. These numbers are completely gamed within an inch of outright fraud.

pretty strong words from someone who doesn't provide any evidence

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#48

Post by Someone1234 »

isoprophlex wrote: post #2

That's impressive. I've read a great many analyses stating Musk'll never succeed in his model 3 ramp up. Let's hope he keeps this up in the coming months. It's a long way to 450.000 vehicles...

> I've read a great many analyses stating Musk'll never succeed in his model 3 ramp up.

*By the deadline he provided. Which he didn't.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#49

Post by calinet6 »

williamscales wrote: post #21

"It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time." I think this is the million dollar question—was this just a sprint effort to hit a milestone for PR sake or will they produce 5000 next week too?

Those who know anything about manufacturing are seeing very clearly that this is unlikely, or if achieved will be done at great cost and waste.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1012000014376230913

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#50

Post by saas_co_de »

dagenix wrote: post #47
saas_co_de wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely cannot. These numbers are completely gamed within an inch of outright fraud.

pretty strong words from someone who doesn't provide any evidence

Only evidence is every other report of burst production rates ever, but yeah, I am sure this time is different.
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