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The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

bloomberg.com

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Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#41

Post by manicdee »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

The “tent” probably will result in a better quality production line since it is a single arch structure with no internal support pillars restricting access or positioning.

The “tent” also likely has better quality air due to not using 40 year old air handling plant.

The mischaracterisiation of the new building as a tent is indicative of the lack of actual concerns about the new line, meaning the short propagandists have to invent new fears.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#42

Post by manicdee »

pranjalv123 wrote: post #19
djrogers wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

Because you've had 40 years to iron out any problems on the line.

The oldest line producing Tesla vehicles is a decade or so old, and is housed in an old building designed for someone else’s production line.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#43

Post by manicdee »

aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

This is not a theory, it is pure unbridled bulldust.

The existing line is functional, this is a new line to produce a new product (specifically the performance model 3).

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#44

Post by ux-app »

manicdee wrote: post #35
ux-app wrote: post #6

> "I don’t think anyone’s seen anything like this outside of the military trying to service vehicles in a war zone. I pity any customer taking delivery of one of these cars. The quality will be shocking" Ouch, that is scathing, proof will be in the pudding though. If there are a lot of QA issues (which it seems reasonable to assume) then the recall rate + bad press might sink them. It's a scrappy (maybe desperate?) m…

That quote is entirely based on mischaracterisation of the new building as a tent, open to the elements. It’s a hangar with a synthetic cloth skin instead of metal or wood cladding. Nothing in this Bloomberg article reflects reality.

the characteristics of the building are mostly irrelevant and a discerning reader will pick up the tent characterisation as hyperbolic. The main thrust is that the decision to set up an ad hoc manufacturing plant could be seen as either

- chaotic/desperate or

- pragmatic and brilliantly subversive of the status quo.

I'm sure we'll get lots of articles painting both sides. Time will tell which one of the two it is.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#45

Post by amluto »

I think Tesla could have taken an alternative, if very non-Elon-Musky approach. Their stock was sky-high based on the assumption that they could dominate EV production and sell huge volume for several years. Instead of building an entire new assembly line from scratch with debt financing, Tesla could have gone big. They could have done an equity deal to buy an entire car company with a flexible assembly line. They could have continued producing the legacy cars and produced Teslas. And they could have taken advantage of the acquired expertise and supply lines to get NUMI up and running much more efficiently.

Subaru, for example, would have been a bargain.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#46

Post by aphextron »

>"The tent doesn’t have air conditioning, according to the city documents."

This is absolutely insane. The thought of making workers assemble cars in a tent in Fremont with no AC in the middle of summer is just mind-blowing. That thing is going to get over 100 degrees every single day. I think Elon finally lost me on this one.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#47

Post by grizzles »

amluto wrote: post #45

I think Tesla could have taken an alternative, if very non-Elon-Musky approach. Their stock was sky-high based on the assumption that they could dominate EV production and sell huge volume for several years. Instead of building an entire new assembly line from scratch with debt financing, Tesla could have gone big. They could have done an equity deal to buy an entire car company with a flexible assembly line. They co…

I don't think Tesla would get enough out of the deal since product changes require factory revamps that are hugely expensive due to all the write offs.

It's an awesome idea though. I wonder if it could be adapted slightly. Maybe a related one would be for Tesla to buy a new battery factory / batteries or a massive amount of cobalt+lithium with equity. Those would all save them a ton of cash in the short term.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#48

Post by amluto »

grizzles wrote: post #47
amluto wrote: post #45

I think Tesla could have taken an alternative, if very non-Elon-Musky approach. Their stock was sky-high based on the assumption that they could dominate EV production and sell huge volume for several years. Instead of building an entire new assembly line from scratch with debt financing, Tesla could have gone big. They could have done an equity deal to buy an entire car company with a flexible assembly line. They co…

I don't think Tesla would get enough out of the deal since product changes require factory revamps that are hugely expensive due to all the write offs. It's an awesome idea though. I wonder if it could be adapted slightly. Maybe a related one would be for Tesla to buy a new battery factory / batteries or a massive amount of cobalt+lithium with equity. Those would all save them a ton of cash in the short term.

I think that modern car assembly lines are designed to be very adjustable. Big car companies introduce new body shapes all the time, and it’s no big deal. And they already have full supply lines to build seats with seatbelts, seats with airbags, trunks, sunroofs, etc. The only major difference between a Model 3 and, say, a new variant of any other sedan is the drive train and battery. Tesla could have focused on that and let existing experts built the rest of the car.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#49

Post by cjhopman »

asfasgasg wrote: post #34
grizzles wrote: post #32

I used to work for Chrysler & Mercedes. Imo, the tent is a really smart way to increase production throughput. Here's why I think so: My guess is that Tesla is pushing the cars through the body shop, paint shop and then partially pushing them through whatever their analog would be to the chassis line in a standard factory. That line would be far simpler in an EV. Together those comprise three fifths of the assembly l…

Oh weird. My guess is they miss their estimates again. They have been missing for months running, so it seems most likely that they will miss again. Doesn't mean they won't catch their aspirations eventually, just it doesn't seem likely that today will be the day.

Their aspirations were an "alien dreadnought" manufacturing these cars. How the goalposts have moved...

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#50

Post by sulam »

jcims wrote: post #33
sulam wrote: post #27

On the list of "most ambitious humans", Elon Musk is probably near the top of the list. (Of course it would have to be some kind of blend of ambition and accomplishment, the most ambitious person on the planet could well be living in his mom's basement eating pizza right now). I wouldn't want to work for him (I hear he's a nightmare), but he sure makes for a nice counterpoint to the rest of the daily news!

I think I'd like to work for him for a little while. There's something to be said for the camaraderie built in high stress environments, and it would be worth it for the stories.

Yeah, the stories from environments like that make for interesting “ghost stories” for your co-workers once enough time has passed. But man living through it isn’t nearly as fun.
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