So it's probably a good idea to have some investments that aren't tied to USD right now, yeah?
‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
41–50 of 289 posts
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#42An article from 2005 with the same prediction:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_...
The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does that mean "reducing budget sheet?" Also, what is meant by long and short term interest? I thought the fed only set one universal interest target.
Short and long term interest rates in this case are for US Treasury Bonds that mature at different lengths of time. Short term bonds tend to have lower interest rates since you're taking less risk that your money will be tied up when the economy grows at a faster pace. If you invest in long term bonds and the economy hits a growth spurt, your money is stuck for a much longer period of time earning less interest than…
I think he meant "balance sheet"
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#44An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
The S&P on roughly that date was 1268. In the depths of the recession, it reached as low as 684.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does that mean "reducing budget sheet?" Also, what is meant by long and short term interest? I thought the fed only set one universal interest target.
Short and long term interest rates in this case are for US Treasury Bonds that mature at different lengths of time. Short term bonds tend to have lower interest rates since you're taking less risk that your money will be tied up when the economy grows at a faster pace. If you invest in long term bonds and the economy hits a growth spurt, your money is stuck for a much longer period of time earning less interest than…
What is the goal of essentially reducing the amount of money in the economy?
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Fed is reducing its budget sheet which will have a significant effect on the yield curve. Inviting comparisons between the yield curve now versus any other point in history is foolish. These are probably the same people who predicted a recession when Trump was elected, after Brexit, and at least once a month for the last decade
What does that mean "reducing budget sheet?" Also, what is meant by long and short term interest? I thought the fed only set one universal interest target.
I meant balance sheet but mistyped, sorry about that
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#47An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
Predicting recession reliably 2-3 years in advance with 2 year window would be really good indicator.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#48I've been hearing this for years. It'll happen when it happens and no one can actually predict. #golong
I always toyed with the idea of taking small positions far out of the money buying puts to hedge against my 401k.
Options are fairly priced. Meaning that they are priced according to the risk. Unless you have some very good reason to use them, they can lead to ruin. This is just another way to say that it is like playing in the casino.
On the other hand, if you have a lot of gains in the stock market, using options may be a small price to keep your piece of mind. Just understand that they give you no clear edge.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#49As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust, it will be interesting to have a neck in the game this go around!
Same, I remember how much the last one stressed out my Dad. I was in high school and didn't fully appreciate the significance of what was going on. I'm a bit anxious anticipating the next one, but it's part of the game!
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#50An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
I think that's mostly irrelevant. 2-3 years prediction would actually be quite good. If you have large investments, 2-3 years would give you a good heads-up for what to do with them before the recession arrives.
The reason I say that point is irrelevant is because what matters most is the signs that a recession is about to happen. Once you have the signs, you pretty much know the recession is inevitable, given the fact that the signs are bad enough that you think the recession could happen in a few short years.