Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment • Hacker News Board

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#41

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 6:57 AM UTC

zeth___ wrote: post #36

yborg wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense did the Linux kernel "win"? Microsoft continues to make a lot of money from Windows Server. Nobody but Red Hat makes any money off the Linux kernel.

That you mistake a monopoly for a victory and not a market failure says a lot more about your values than about the relative merits of open source vs closed source.

> That you mistake a monopoly for a victory and not a market failure says a lot more about your values

One, insulting others on this forum isn't productive. Two, our broader discussion is about Chinese technological policy. I doubt anyone in Beijing is concerned about victory by way of market failure.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#42

Post by ttflee » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:03 AM UTC

thisisit wrote: post #29

Curious how will this workout with Xi's unlimited terms presidency?

This will not work, unless Xi resigns with his staff, replacing them with actual competent ones. That would be a miracle.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#43

Post by nvarsj » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:04 AM UTC

Udik wrote: post #38

endtime wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If not we are just going to get more and more leaders from both sides propped up purely for skills to pander. While I share some of your concerns about the media, isn't this (just an uncharitable way of stating) the entire purpose of democracy?

Western democracy has always been tempered (and sometimes subverted) by the control exerted by cultural elites on mass communications. Now that control is faltering, and we're seeing the results.

Quite the opposite. Instead, the floodgates have been opened to anyone, like the Russian government, with free access to powerful media platforms if you have the capital. Prior to that the mass media was in the hands of only a few, all based in the US. Control of the masses has been API'd. Basically, China should have bought more Facebook ads.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#44

Post by kerng » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:06 AM UTC

I found this article pretty educating personally. Somehow, I always assumed/believed microchip tech is very advanced in China, but apparently its quite behind. 90% of the chips are imported according to this.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#45

Post by cynwoody » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:21 AM UTC

yborg wrote: post #33

Iolaum wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Linux Kernel vs Windows NT kernel

In what sense did the Linux kernel "win"? Microsoft continues to make a lot of money from Windows Server. Nobody but Red Hat makes any money off the Linux kernel.

>Nobody but Red Hat makes any money off the Linux kernel.

You forgot about Canonical.

But the real point is, in the wild, the Linux kernel predominates.

Every Android user is a Linux kernel user. Every Chromebook user is a Linux kernel user. Every iOS user is a Unix user. Every Google server is a Linux kernel installation.

The fact is, Linux/Unix rules. Except for the corporate desktop, where Windows predominates, at least for most (uninteresting) instances of "corporate".

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#46

Post by Angostura » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:36 AM UTC

Zafira wrote: post #15

shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

I agree this policy is likely folly and that China showed its cards far too early, but I also believe that the Western policy of hoping that welcoming in China would lead to greater democratic freedoms was one of arrogance. The current landscape of trade deals and international law is clearly Western focused and to believe that other cultures are simply going to happily go along with that logic in the long run seems…

> but I also believe that the Western policy of hoping that welcoming in China would lead to greater democratic freedoms was one of arrogance.

I'd probably go with 'naivety' or 'over-optimism' rather than arrogance.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#47

Post by leonroy » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 7:45 AM UTC

shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

Great piece from Bloomberg, thanks for sharing. Whilst the US does project itself as the bulwark of free speech, free markets and free thinking its history of protecting them has been cyclic.

I fear we are going through a particularly nasty regression right now.

It’s a perfect storm of liberals moving to cities, slowness to redistrict suburbs hence giving them greater voting sway and also the effect of suppression in wages amongst blue collars and likely all sectors to be honest as globalisation waves its sword and brings 100s of millions out of poverty in the East and also as regressive tax law enriches holders of capital to an alarming extent.

I don’t know what the antidote is - it sometimes feels as if it could go the way towards WW3 at one extreme or people coming to their senses and realising that the promises of Trump and Brexit enrich only the profiteers.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#48

Post by cm2187 » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 8:00 AM UTC

shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

Another challenge to this list: for long the Chinese high growth rate has been fueled by foreign investments (basically foreign companies outsourcing their production to China). This reduced a lot with the financial crisis (and outsourcing of factories is mostly done, now if anything automation is reversing that movement) and China compensated by a massive increase in debt which fueled a real estate bubble and as you mentioned worrying high level of debt. Now that has to stop at one point, and then what?

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#49

Post by fungi » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 8:06 AM UTC

infinity0 wrote: post #9

More funding coming this way for RISC-V

And http://en.c-sky.com/

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#50

Post by intrasight » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 8:12 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #24

zeth___ wrote: post #20

If Chinas leadership was smart they would push for open source commodity ics. Opensource always wins and they could do a run around the US where old technologies like x86 die and all the experience built around then becomes irrelevant.

> Opensource always wins Zero evidence of this claim at any level.

Not "evidence" (a legal term anyway) but techonomic theory: In technology, businesses strive to commoditize aspects of their competitors tech stack. As this occurs across all tech stacks, all are eventually commoditized - often in the form of opens source. Hence "open source always wins".