Interesting that even the most naive methods still have >50% accuracy. Also interesting that the best method was better able to predict downward moves than upward moves, during a bull market. Any intuitive reason for this? Is there some reason the study doesn't include the post-December 2017 bear market?
> Interesting that even the most naive methods still have >50% accuracy. All methods that you'll ever see have >50% accuracy, because if you find a signal with 50% accuracy. Here's a bit relevant to this conversation: > Previous work on predicting the directionality of Bitcoin prices has shown that significant signal exists in the price of the cryptocurrency. Hegazy and Mumford (2016) compute an exponentially-smoothe…
Don't get me wrong, sklearn+CSV is great for learning, and great for initial experimentation or playing around. But it's just too far from the real process to be meaningful imo.