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The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

nytimes.com

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Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#41

Post by bobthepanda »

bonestamp2 wrote: post #26
empath75 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will eventually be a pets.com of the tech bubble. Something like Tesla or Uber or Blue Apron going belly up.

Tesla and Uber aren't going anywhere. There's way too much invested for them not to secure another tiny drop in the bucket to keep going. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a good idea ("throwing good money after bad"), but that's the reality of what will happen, especially since it will probably be someone else's money as they dilute.

Isn't this what we said about the housing market a decade ago?

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#42

Post by lalos »

bonestamp2 wrote: post #26
empath75 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will eventually be a pets.com of the tech bubble. Something like Tesla or Uber or Blue Apron going belly up.

Tesla and Uber aren't going anywhere. There's way too much invested for them not to secure another tiny drop in the bucket to keep going. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a good idea ("throwing good money after bad"), but that's the reality of what will happen, especially since it will probably be someone else's money as they dilute.

Look at Ford http://www.businessinsider.com/ford-f-150-truck-production-m...

A fire accident of a supplier of Ford caused this, it wasn't even on their hands. Any freak/unlucky accident plus Tesla being tight with cash and time you do the math.

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#44

Post by _bxg1 »

I wonder if this is a bubble that's going to burst eventually. With so many ships sinking and so much optimism being for naught, investors might grow tired of the game and stop investing so aggressively, perhaps shifting things too far to the other side of the spectrum.

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#45

Post by adventured »

The entire economy.... Talk about an extreme click-bait headline.

Their fraudulent premise is extracted from this single setup:

"Over all, 76 percent of the companies that went public last year were unprofitable on a per-share basis in the year leading up to their initial offerings"

There were a whopping 30 tech IPOs in 2017 (tech & biotech IPOs substantially tilt the percentage of unprofitable listings; there has been no change in the number of unprofitable biotech listings, they overwhelmingly tend to be unprofitable across all years). You see, that's the entire economy. By comparison there were 370 tech IPOs in 1999, 12x more.

Meanwhile, back in reality, the S&P 500's profits are at record highs.

Small business profitability is also booming per the National Federation of Independent Business survey (a survey going back to 1973), which is registering sales & profit growth levels rarely seen in the last five decades.

"NFIB: A ‘record level’ of small businesses are growing their profits"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-small-business/wp/201...

"Small business profits are at a 45-year high: NFIB survey"

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/small-business-profits-45-hi...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-13/u-s-small...

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#47

Post by Mindwipe »

worldsayshi wrote: post #40
mabbo wrote: post #16

> The king of money-losers, of course, is Amazon, which went years without turning a profit. Instead, it plowed billions of dollars back into its business The key difference with Amazon is that Amazon could choose to be profitable at any time- just raise prices ever so slightly, reducing growth in customer demand, and the stop building out its enormous logistics empire and new businesses. Amazon could have had profit…

But MoviePass "could also choose to raise prices ever so slightly". It seems very likely it would not work. What's the categorical difference between the two business models? Guess it's the fact that when MoviePass tries to change prices it will force every user to opt in all over again. Opting in is part of the everyday user interaction for Amazon.

MoviePass doesn't have to raise prices ever so slightly to be a viable business. It has to raise prices by significant integer multiples.

(And heck, Amazon don't even need to raise prices, they could be very profitable just by investing in growth less. But their investors are clearly happy with the current state of affairs).

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#48

Post by lrem »

worldsayshi wrote: post #40
mabbo wrote: post #16

> The king of money-losers, of course, is Amazon, which went years without turning a profit. Instead, it plowed billions of dollars back into its business The key difference with Amazon is that Amazon could choose to be profitable at any time- just raise prices ever so slightly, reducing growth in customer demand, and the stop building out its enormous logistics empire and new businesses. Amazon could have had profit…

But MoviePass "could also choose to raise prices ever so slightly". It seems very likely it would not work. What's the categorical difference between the two business models? Guess it's the fact that when MoviePass tries to change prices it will force every user to opt in all over again. Opting in is part of the everyday user interaction for Amazon.

Amazon was making profit on every incremental sale, but invested more money than the sum of that profit.

Re: The Entire Economy Is MoviePass Now

#50

Post by StanislavPetrov »

dragonwriter wrote: post #30
arcbyte wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Surely the money has to dry up sometime? Yup, this fall. By the close of 2018 all the world's central banks will be in quantitative tightening after having spent the past 10 years perpetuating an unprecedented level of quantitative easing.

QEs been tapering off for a long time (US QE ended in 2014); there's very little reason to believe that it's global final (for now) end will do much to capital markets.

This only means that the FED hasn't been increasing its purchases since 2014. It has maintained an over $4 Trillion (trillion with a T) balance sheet, and it continues to roll this money over. Ending QE would mean stopping repurchasing and letting the balance sheet shrink - quite different in substance and effect than tapering.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

This also ignores the fact that QE purchasing has continued to accelerate at an unsustainable rate in many of the world's largest economies, such as Japan.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/central-bank-balance-shee...

In addition, central banks are (and have been) purchasing stocks directly to prop up the markets. The Bank of Japan spends over $800 billion yen a month buying stocks and ETFs, resulting in the central bank owning a massive 75% of ETFs in the entire market.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bank-of-Japan-s-ETF...

If you don't understand the problems with central banks owning three quarters of the market and what that means in the future (near and far) then you don't understand markets. Nobody knows when the "extend and pretend" strategy employed by central banks around the world for the last decade will fall apart, but everyone informed understand that it won't last forever. The longer we keep our heads in the sand the worse the problem will ultimately be.

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