Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise • Hacker News Board

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#41

Post by SkyMarshal » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:32 PM UTC

amh wrote: post #22

lionheart wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is slightly toungue-in-cheek but why can't all of the actual manufacturing be outsourced? Why not? Corporations do it successfully, why can't countries specialize in design just like they used to specialize in certain crops?

Designs are easily copied, physical widgets are not (until we get nano-replicators anyway). Innovations in design and manufacturing tend to dovetail and drive each other. Doing both under one roof reaps more of a benefit from that dynamic. There is also a historical argument. The most prosperous, successful countries have had a large industrial base. That doesn't necessarily mean one requires the other, but it does s…

"Innovations in design and manufacturing tend to dovetail and drive each other."

That's Andy Grove's current argument too. I would have thought it to be obvious, self-evident even, but apparently not.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#42

Post by scotty79 » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:37 PM UTC

>> How did this growth start? In his book “The Enlightened Economy,” Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University argues that the crucial change happened in people’s minds.

Or you could just say that they invented and started using steam engine that removed the cap on physical work output of any given population. They just needed to dig some coal, so they did. Rest is history.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#43

Post by billswift » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:41 PM UTC

illumin8 wrote: post #19

todayiamme wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now we are in a period of flux and I am willing to bet that 20 years down the lines. You will have USA based automated manufacturers that do just this. Right now, due to misalignment of interests manufacturing has shifted to other countries, but the world can't be a sweat shop too long. So, the reverse trend will start kicking in sooner or later to equilibrium. Moreover, unilateral hegemony is something that no…

I hope you are right. Ross Perot once said something like "globalization will equalize all countries at the same wages, about $6/hr." I think he might have been right. I'm not really looking forward to a world where high tech workers can only make $6 an hour, but I guess it really depends on what you can buy with $6.

I worked as a heavy construction laborer as a teenager for a lot less that $6 an hour; I would much rather spend my days writing software for $6 an hour than go back to that.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#44

Post by hristov » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:55 PM UTC

InclinedPlane wrote: post #18

hristov wrote: post #15

I have to say Brooks' ability of denial is quite impressive. He is so good at not seeing the elephant in the room, it is no wonder he has a prestigious job with the NYT. He wrote an entire article about how Americans are "abandoning" manufacturing without ever mentioning offshoring. If you read his article you would think that the American decline in manufacturing has something to do with some weird pretentiousness o…

The "American decline in manufacturing" is a myth. American manufacturing output has been on a continued uptick, the peak of output for the US was... 2006, and will likely exceed that shortly as the economy recovers. The US contributes fully 1/5th of the world's entire manufacturing output. What has changed is that US manufacturing has grown much more efficient, so there are far fewer manufacturing jobs than there us…

Then I guess Brooks is wrong. But any way you look at it discussing that "americans are abandoning technical enterprise" without mentioning offshoring is missing the point (if you are being generous) or intentional deception (if you are a bit more realistic).

Regarding the statistics of manufacturing supposedly growing they are misleading. I don't have time to explain why they are misleading but if you dont believe me you can just visit Detroit, or Flynt Michigan, or even Philadelphia.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#45

Post by bmcnamara82 » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:59 PM UTC

InclinedPlane wrote: post #18

hristov wrote: post #15

I have to say Brooks' ability of denial is quite impressive. He is so good at not seeing the elephant in the room, it is no wonder he has a prestigious job with the NYT. He wrote an entire article about how Americans are "abandoning" manufacturing without ever mentioning offshoring. If you read his article you would think that the American decline in manufacturing has something to do with some weird pretentiousness o…

The "American decline in manufacturing" is a myth. American manufacturing output has been on a continued uptick, the peak of output for the US was... 2006, and will likely exceed that shortly as the economy recovers. The US contributes fully 1/5th of the world's entire manufacturing output. What has changed is that US manufacturing has grown much more efficient, so there are far fewer manufacturing jobs than there us…

Right. The decline in manufacturing is a tricky subject. First off, in developed economies the manufacturing employee makes up less than 1/5th of the population. Let's be honest, manufacturing will never come back to developed nations like it was in the early 20th century.

We aren't "declining" in productivity. We've continued to increased productivity at the same historic rate as previous industries. (http://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm)

We are accomplishing this productivity gain with less people. Increased productivity allows for companies to increase their output with less people.

As Peter Drucker predicted, if these productivity gains aren't matched in the service and knowledge worker sectors, then we'll see an increase in social tensions and class warfare. No one can deny the social acrimony that continues to surface in the news.

This will be the challenge of the 21st century. What to do with a nation that doesn't require a majority of its workforce employed in moving or making things.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#46

Post by hristov » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 8:59 PM UTC

sp332 wrote: post #32

hristov wrote: post #15

I have to say Brooks' ability of denial is quite impressive. He is so good at not seeing the elephant in the room, it is no wonder he has a prestigious job with the NYT. He wrote an entire article about how Americans are "abandoning" manufacturing without ever mentioning offshoring. If you read his article you would think that the American decline in manufacturing has something to do with some weird pretentiousness o…

Offshoring is not magically cheaper. Why do you think manufacturing in the US might be more expensive? One quite possible reason is "some weird pretentiousness of the American workers".

Or, if you try a furtive glance at the real world, you might find the reason is that the rest of the world is full of poor desperate and oppressed people willing to work for very little money and in bad conditions.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#47

Post by tlb » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 9:10 PM UTC

InclinedPlane wrote: post #18

hristov wrote: post #15

I have to say Brooks' ability of denial is quite impressive. He is so good at not seeing the elephant in the room, it is no wonder he has a prestigious job with the NYT. He wrote an entire article about how Americans are "abandoning" manufacturing without ever mentioning offshoring. If you read his article you would think that the American decline in manufacturing has something to do with some weird pretentiousness o…

The "American decline in manufacturing" is a myth. American manufacturing output has been on a continued uptick, the peak of output for the US was... 2006, and will likely exceed that shortly as the economy recovers. The US contributes fully 1/5th of the world's entire manufacturing output. What has changed is that US manufacturing has grown much more efficient, so there are far fewer manufacturing jobs than there us…

Which of your possessions are manufactured in the US? Not many of mine are. No electronics I can think of, and not my cars or my furniture or 95% of my clothes.

When economic measures seem out of whack with observed reality, one should question what the numbers really mean.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#48

Post by potatolicious » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 9:14 PM UTC

tlb wrote: post #47

InclinedPlane wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "American decline in manufacturing" is a myth. American manufacturing output has been on a continued uptick, the peak of output for the US was... 2006, and will likely exceed that shortly as the economy recovers. The US contributes fully 1/5th of the world's entire manufacturing output. What has changed is that US manufacturing has grown much more efficient, so there are far fewer manufacturing jobs than there us…

Which of your possessions are manufactured in the US? Not many of mine are. No electronics I can think of, and not my cars or my furniture or 95% of my clothes. When economic measures seem out of whack with observed reality, one should question what the numbers really mean.

You're forgetting intermediate goods - the fact that your computer monitor is made in China does not imply that all of its internal components are also made there.

You're also forgetting that consumer products are but a portion of total manufacturing output - industrial goods are also an extremely large segment of the market, and one where we have not yet lost the lead to the Chinese.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#49

Post by potatolicious » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 9:17 PM UTC

xentronium wrote: post #31

InclinedPlane wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does this contradict my point? The US has gotten richer, and it has also borrowed more. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Today Bob borrowed $100 from Alice and earned $5 on his daily basis. Bob thinks he became $105 richer while Alice doubts that.

Individual income vs. government borrowing/spending are not the same thing.

Your analogy, corrected:

Today Bob's parents borrowed $100 from Alice and Bob earned $5 on his own. Bob thinks he became $5 richer, Alice is owed $100, and Bob's parents now have more debt.

Re: Brooks: America’s brightest minds have been abandoning technical enterprise

#50

Post by potatolicious » Fri, Sep 10, 2010, 9:21 PM UTC

sp332 wrote: post #32

hristov wrote: post #15

I have to say Brooks' ability of denial is quite impressive. He is so good at not seeing the elephant in the room, it is no wonder he has a prestigious job with the NYT. He wrote an entire article about how Americans are "abandoning" manufacturing without ever mentioning offshoring. If you read his article you would think that the American decline in manufacturing has something to do with some weird pretentiousness o…

Offshoring is not magically cheaper. Why do you think manufacturing in the US might be more expensive? One quite possible reason is "some weird pretentiousness of the American workers".

Or, maybe, just maybe, it's because the average per capita income in China is $6,567, compared to $46,381 in the US?

No, that can't be it. Surely the order of magnitude difference in living cost, lack of safety and labor law has nothing to do with it. Surely it is the "weird pretentiousness of American workers".