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The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

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41–50 of 175 posts

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, this scenario is what many people jump towards in missing-persons cases, and it so far has not been true even once in my experience. It does happen, but it's much rarer than a straightforward combination of bad circumstances and bad decisions. Hell, at this point I've seen more murders and probable murders than people disappearing on purpose.

Likelihood is irrelevant -- what matters is if it was covered. For example, if he bought "How to Disappear Completely and Never Be Found" on Amazon, was doing Google Searches for it, etc. -- seems not only worth further investigation. Research shows that if for example during an interview his wife said it was possibly a suicide, that the odds are good it was: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-40199-…

No, likelihood ("probabilistic thinking") is very relevant, and is a crucial element of effective search management.

No search operation has unlimited resources. If you had unlimited resources available, then sure, you can run down every imaginable possibility. But, real-world, it's not like that: you've got a few groups of people, maybe, who can devote some time to one case, and then they've gotta move on to the next one.

Your scenario is also essentially impossible to disprove. A detective might examine a home computer and find no evidence, but what if he used his phone? What if he used some other workstation? What if he knew someone? There are an infinite number of what-ifs, and striking each one off the list -- which is time-consuming and expensive -- only leads to another one.

There are few certainties in cases like this. All you get is the evidence and your ability to put the pieces together. After that, it's all probabilities.

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#42
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fermi estimate, about 120-180 sinkings a year * 30 crewmembers/ship * 0.75 chance of dying (I'm guessing some sink in port or are evacuated?) = 2700 deaths / year.

Why do you think the chance of dying on a sinking ship would be so incredibly high? 0.75 chance of dying is what you had on the Titanic! Your number has no relation to reality at all. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shipwrecks_in_2017

It's merely an estimate of order of magnitude.

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#43
post #39
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still boggles my mind how three different GPS position formats can be used. And then not used correctly by search crews, which then missed location by 23nm. https://i.imgur.com/nbwkCPY.png

23 nanometers off, dang. If they'd only had a slightly wider field of view, they could have found those poor people. :(

Nautical Miles

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#44
post #13

> She called Davidson on the house phone and told him that the hurricane was now a Category 3. He knew that already. She proposed the escape route to the south and a smooth sail on to San Juan. He rejected her suggestion. I wonder if in the maritime world there is the equivalent of CRM (Cockpit Resource Management), as in aviation. Too many lives were lost due to 1st officer never taking over command when the error i…

There is: bridge resource management. It actually grew out of CRM. Section 2.7 of the NTSB report (linked elsewhere in this thread) gives an overview of it and discusses how it played a role in this incident. It's an interesting read and seems to be relatively in-depth.

Reading through Section 2.7 of that report was a treat, thank you! (https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/...)

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#45

My big takeaway from all of this is that, given the choice between driving your boat into a hurricane and doing something else, something else should be the default.

Another conclusion was that a tiered subscription model that withholds life-saving information is a business I never want to be in. El Faro subscribed to the Bon Voyage System for weather updates, but they didn't subscribe to the routing guidance and always received six hour-old information. The stale data is a critical part of this story. http://www.stormgeo.com/solutions/shipping/on-board-services...

Another important part are the flashy graphics. People always trust you more with flashy graphics against a list of coordinates

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#46
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another conclusion was that a tiered subscription model that withholds life-saving information is a business I never want to be in. El Faro subscribed to the Bon Voyage System for weather updates, but they didn't subscribe to the routing guidance and always received six hour-old information. The stale data is a critical part of this story. http://www.stormgeo.com/solutions/shipping/on-board-services...

Another important part are the flashy graphics. People always trust you more with flashy graphics against a list of coordinates

..and buggy software.

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#47
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is why I qualified it as a Fermi estimate. I was guessing randomly.

Fermi estimate or guessing randomly: Pick one. They are mutually exclusive.

Good point. I was guessing randomly with justification. If I had guessed that 0.001% or 1000% of all sunk sailors died it wouldn't be a Fermi estimate.

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#48

That was hard to read.

Lump in throat - but can't stop until the end - reading.

>Hamm said, “You gonna leave me?”

>Davidson answered firmly, “I’m not leaving you. Let’s go.”

Fuck me, I can't even imagine what that must be like. And I'm grateful for that.

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A recent (paywalled) article in the New Scientist stated that the fatal accident rate for ships' crews is twenty times that of the average British worker. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731623-300-ghost-sh...

How does the fatal accident rate for, e.g., professional drivers compare with the average worker? I imagine crewing a ship is more dangerous, but humans are famously bad at evaluating risk.

So being crew on a merchant ship is more dangerous that cops (by far), and probably more dangerous on say a 10 year timeframe than being in the military (since you probably aren't at war that much over 10 years, unless you are unlucky).

Re: The Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

#50
post #13

> She called Davidson on the house phone and told him that the hurricane was now a Category 3. He knew that already. She proposed the escape route to the south and a smooth sail on to San Juan. He rejected her suggestion. I wonder if in the maritime world there is the equivalent of CRM (Cockpit Resource Management), as in aviation. Too many lives were lost due to 1st officer never taking over command when the error i…

One of my takeaways from the article is that the captain's confidence and willingness to do the right thing had been shaken after he'd been burned the last time he'd refused unsafe orders. I'm wondering if the 1st officer similarly faced bad consequences for doing the right thing and taking command -- mutiny charges are still a thing, aren't they?
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