41–50 of 193 posts
And, regarding their automation, a few honest questions:
1. How much automation are we talking about, compared to the status quo?
2. How much of the automation is reusable across other models? Are they building up a repeatable model to increase scale at a lower cost?
> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…
Yeah, is called PR. Shitty, but everyone does it.
Worth posting Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 Tracker, which contains a model attempting to independently estimate production, as well as background info about Tesla's past projections: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
I think most people shouldn't take this tracker seriously as it was wildly off most of the time and was often manually adjusted.
> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…
I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…
That's true, Citroen had a pretty good run with their record of 80,000 pre-orders (it stood for 60 years). But that was before the internet, all of the orders were made in person, they were non-refundable orders and there never was any doubt that Citroen would deliver the cars.
> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…
I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…
Although you could be pedantic about what consitutes a pre-order, this isn't strictly true. Demand for the Mustang is truly unprecedented, even by the Model 3. Have a look at the Mustang production from that timeframe: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/19...
> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…
Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…
All that said, their fanciful production plans can't hold much weight with institutional investors after so many misses, so it should be priced into the market.
The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers. That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the poin…
> What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). Maybe -- or they could wait to buy their assets in bankruptcy.
If TSLA fell that far, the shorts would get paid.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. At the same time this is an admission that Musk is/was selling a delusion to people when Tesla set it's production goals.
Optimism isn’t delusional. They’re already making ~192k vehicles a year at their current 3/S/X production rate ( which will only increase ). You would have to be malicious or ignorant to think that can’t be scaled up to NUMMIs previous 350k/year run rate in the next 3-12 months. Disclosure: TSLA shareholder
CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1] From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles." A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up. I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise…
Depends on what made these numbers. Late night burn or proper automation ?
Getting full automation to work is really hard, takes a lot of labor and time. I think they'll do it, but the task should not be under-estimated. In the meantime, they've already achieved a production rate per factory line similar to what a typical automaker like VW would do (on the order of 100,000 per year for a factory).
Like SpaceX around 2015 or so. Respectable, but not yet Earth-shattering (i.e. 2017).
I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…
