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Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

technologyreview.com

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Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#41

Post by dmoo »

randomdata wrote: post #18
bastawhiz wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wage is orthogonal to many jobs that AI will replace, especially in medicine. If it's your job to diagnose illness from medical imagery, you probably make a good deal more than minimum wage but your job is very much in jeopardy. Truck drivers make three times minimum wage in many cases, and their jobs are going to disappear in only a few years. At past jobs, I've seen finance folks (with graduate degrees) hav…

The parent is referring to the how people cannot lower their wage (below the minimum) when automation starts competing against them. The truck driver may make three times minimum wage right now, but the truck driver will be prevented, by law, from offering to drive a truck for 1/3 minimum wage when driverless trucks cost 1/2 minimum wage to operate. Humans may want to sharpen their pencils and outcompete automation o…

You could easily tax robot labor to ensure it wasn't competitive with cheap labour

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#42

Post by philwelch »

I’ve spent a long time thinking about this, and I actually think that most of the dangers are somewhat overblown and the corrective actions are already in progress. People are already willing to pay a premium for artisanal goods specifically because they are made by a human being, and this provides a growing economic niche for artisans. In and of itself, this isn’t exactly sufficient, since artisans don’t usually make a whole lot of money, but the flip side is that automated goods and services are going to become cheaper and cheaper over time, bringing them within reach.

A post-AI economy could easily be an economy of artisans, one where it’s easier to afford the more basic necessities of life but where human work and effort still has value.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#44

Post by dominotw »

maxander wrote: post #8

> These changes are coming, and we need to tell the truth and the whole truth. We need to find the jobs that AI can’t do and train people to do them. We need to reinvent education. These will be the best of times and the worst of times. If we act rationally and quickly, we can bask in what’s best rather than wallow in what’s worst. Saying "find the jobs that AI can't do" like it's this obvious thing; we haven't the s…

It's pretty easy to guess. I just did my laundry and folded my clothes. Something "ai" can't even think about doing, not even close.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#45

Post by Barrin92 »

pg_bot wrote: post #32

Another article claiming that there is a coming AI jobpocalypse based on the fact that "this time it is different". Every author focuses on the negative impacts of a new technology instead of what it will enable us to do. In order to believe the doomsayers, you have to ignore the entire history of the industrialized world. I do not find their arguments very convincing.

>In order to believe the doomsayers, you have to ignore the entire history of the industrialized world

The first consequence of major technological revolution, the post industrial era enabled the biggest wars human history had yet seen because our societies where technologically advanced but spiritually depraved. Modernity gave us amazing technology but also totalitarianism we had never seen before.

Yes, doomsayers are always numerous but just because people are crying wolf a lot doesn't mean that wolves aren't real. The image of a society in which hundreds of millions of people are devoid of purpose, live on subsistence social welfare and are at best employed to keep them occupied is a very scary one. And it might very well happen.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#46

Post by headsoup »

austenallred wrote: post #6
headsoup wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will find a way to stay busy Yes let's just dismiss all the concerns because 'things always work out in the end.' I suppose there's always room for more managers...

My job didn’t exist 20 years ago. Did yours?

Yes

Were you in the workforce 20 years ago?

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#47

Post by tigershark »

dominotw wrote: post #44
maxander wrote: post #8

> These changes are coming, and we need to tell the truth and the whole truth. We need to find the jobs that AI can’t do and train people to do them. We need to reinvent education. These will be the best of times and the worst of times. If we act rationally and quickly, we can bask in what’s best rather than wallow in what’s worst. Saying "find the jobs that AI can't do" like it's this obvious thing; we haven't the s…

It's pretty easy to guess. I just did my laundry and folded my clothes. Something "ai" can't even think about doing, not even close.

Your comment doesn’t seem so different to when people were saying that ai can’t even think to beat a human go player, not even close.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#48

Post by philipwhiuk »

dominotw wrote: post #44
maxander wrote: post #8

> These changes are coming, and we need to tell the truth and the whole truth. We need to find the jobs that AI can’t do and train people to do them. We need to reinvent education. These will be the best of times and the worst of times. If we act rationally and quickly, we can bask in what’s best rather than wallow in what’s worst. Saying "find the jobs that AI can't do" like it's this obvious thing; we haven't the s…

It's pretty easy to guess. I just did my laundry and folded my clothes. Something "ai" can't even think about doing, not even close.

Uh huh?

https://foldimate.com/ https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/10/16865506/laundroid-laundr...

(and yes these are buggy and expensive now, but 5 years?)

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#49

Post by randomdata »

dmoo wrote: post #41
randomdata wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parent is referring to the how people cannot lower their wage (below the minimum) when automation starts competing against them. The truck driver may make three times minimum wage right now, but the truck driver will be prevented, by law, from offering to drive a truck for 1/3 minimum wage when driverless trucks cost 1/2 minimum wage to operate. Humans may want to sharpen their pencils and outcompete automation o…

You could easily tax robot labor to ensure it wasn't competitive with cheap labour

It is an interesting thought. How would the tax be implemented?

The automated dishwasher in my kitchen relieves human dishwashing services to the tune of an hour or two per week. Minimum wage where I live is $14/hr. That is, on the low end, a little over $700 per year. Would I be on the hook for the $700 each year, minus the current operating costs of the dishwasher, in order to have it operational in my home?

And should the taxed value be a straight up calculation like that? Humans are quirky and unreliable, and I may not be comfortable with having a stranger in my house to clean up after me. As such, I may be willing to pay quite a bit more to have the reliable and comfortable automation over hiring a human. Would the tax need to account for that disparity to allow humans to still have a competitive edge?

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#50

Post by victoro »

To everyone commenting on the looming job-pocalypse that will be caused by the automation of trucks, please explain why much simpler transportation systems to automate have not resulted in wide-scale job loss. Last I checked, airplanes still had multiple pilots accompanied by significant ground control crews operating them, despite significantly fewer environmental challenges to their operation. Freight trains and subway systems - even simpler closed-loop transportation systems that have working fully autonomous examples in most major airports - still employ conductors. Why will trucks be different?
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