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Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

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Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#41

I always think that it's only a matter of time before some company with vast capital (looking at you Apple) finds their own way to set up a city/country with their own ecosystem (healthcare, transport etc.), with less bureaucracy and more efficiently.

I think this is what a lot of politicians think, also. They don't want government run healthcare because it's only a matter of time before the market fixes healthcare.

Edit: I think Apple is only interested in medical devices.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today it's closer to $18,000. Do you happen to know the sources of inflation? Are we consuming a lot more services? Are healthcare providers being paid more? Are healthcare companies getting rich?

One word answer for the rising cost of healthcare in the US: administrators. [1] [1] https://fee.org/articles/the-chart-that-could-undo-the-us-he...

It'll require more than a one-word answer to explain why that Koch-affiliated (https://www.charleskochinstitute.org/educational-programs/pa...) libertarian think-tank didn't think to chart other rising healthcare costs, like the costs of prescription drugs.

Administrator salaries don't seem to explain this: https://www.statnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ASPE1.pn...

Nor this: http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/556494646da8110d29e...

This sort of thing probably doesn't help, either: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/01/30/drug-companies-flooded-...

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US healthcare system worked for the majority of people until roughly the last 15 years, and then it began failing gradually up the income ladder. So if you look more recently, the last ten years in particular, that would be the window where something like this would especially begin to matter. It wasn't done before, because it didn't make sense for large entities to bother; things have gotten bad enough that now…

> Today it's closer to $18,000. Do you happen to know the sources of inflation? Are we consuming a lot more services? Are healthcare providers being paid more? Are healthcare companies getting rich?

It's a little bit of everything.

As the other comment noted, there has been a vast expansion of administrative bullshit cost in the system.

Pharma drug costs have gone up a lot (that's around 10% to 15% of the $1.x trillion cost problem the US has). The US is spending about ~20% of its GDP on healthcare, or roughly twice the OECD average (~70-80% more than countries like France or Belgium). That's up from 12.x% in 1990, and 14% in 2000 (that 6% representing an added $1.x trillion in cost). That 12% figure in 1990, is comparable to what nicer developed nations spend today.

US wages are high, healthcare workers typically earn far above the median (eg US nurses and doctors are very well paid), and we've hired a lot of healthcare workers in the last 20 years. The number of healthcare workers has roughly doubled since 1990 from eight million to around 15-16 million today. A near 100% increase vs a population increase of about 30% or so over that time. That is guaranteed to generate a massive cost spike for that part of the problem, and that cost isn't being distributed across a further 100% larger population base. Healthcare workers have also seen their wage growth exceed the median wage growth, they've mostly done ok. So the net cost per capita for each healthcare worker in the US, has soared.

Insurance companies have done exactly what you'd expect. They push prices as high as they can get away with, adding more cost bloat to the system.

The American diet deteriorated dramatically since ~1980. Obesity particularly soared from around the mid 1980s to 2015. That brought with it a lot of added healthcare costs, around cancer, diabetes, and so on. These people weren't/aren't dying so much as they are requiring expensive routine care for various health consequences of the obesity. Conceptually it's like the battlefield cost of having a vast number of wounded soldiers, rather than those soldiers simply dying instead; in this case the battlefield is the economy or society generally speaking.

And then the US population has aged quite a bit in the last 20-30 years. The boomer generation is going to be extraordinarily expensive from a healthcare standpoint. For now that's getting worse by the year as with most developed nations.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of the benefits a profit motive brings to insurance companies is pushing back on improper billing by providers (doctors/hospitals) and negotiating lowest possible care and drug rates. The ACA requires insurers to spend 80% of the premiums they take in on direct healthcare costs for their members. Inflated billing and high drug costs are actually helpful if they want to make a nice big profit. To a point, at lea…

That only applies to the individual market, not employer insurance (small and large group. Higher medical expenses don’t help. It only creates higher premiums, which members then blame on greed. There are plenty of legitimate problems with providers, drug laws, and insurers. But insurers definitely don’t benefit from higher expenses.

Actually systemic higher costs do help. An older industry analysis found insurance to be competitive so they only way to grow profits for the industry was to grow costs. The trick is for insurance companies to find ways to get other insurance companies to pay more even if they have to also carry those costs.

AKA, 10% of 2 trillion is more than 10% of 1 trillion.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#45
27 days ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16060201

> Could this problem be attacked by a goodwill billionaire with a long-term plan? Open several private medical schools that will offer "free" med education in exchange for multi-year contracts. Open many small copycat clinics. Manufacture your own generics if possible, import whatever is cheapest, focus on things you can do cheap, be transparent about pricing, build awareness and brand. McDonaldize/Amazonize American healthcare.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#46
post #6

I've always wondered what's stopping someone from creating a non-profit and just having people join it in order to give the non-profit ability to negotiate lower prices. I imagine there's a cost to set this up, but is that cost less than the marginal cost of each employee and the savings they would (presumably) receive if enough people joined?

> I've always wondered what's stopping someone from creating a non-profit and just having people join it in order to give the non-profit ability to negotiate lower prices.

Likely the fact that many of these prices are basically standardized because of CMS. Providers basically look to what the Medicare/Medicaid standard is as a benchmark for pricing.

As a provider why accept a lower price from insurance when the gov't is providing a backlog of people at predetermined prices?

-----

Unless these companies are also looking to enter the provider space, they will likely only competing on marginally better insurance rates.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#47
post #5

Tragedy of the commons much? It's disturbing to see corporations occupy the vacuum US policy has left here.

I do think it's very odd for any company to be making big bets on private health insurance when that system isn't going to exist in another 5-10 years. The ACA was the last stab at leaving private insurers in charge of a somewhat more regulated system, and it failed.

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today it's closer to $18,000. Do you happen to know the sources of inflation? Are we consuming a lot more services? Are healthcare providers being paid more? Are healthcare companies getting rich?

One word answer for the rising cost of healthcare in the US: administrators. [1] [1] https://fee.org/articles/the-chart-that-could-undo-the-us-he...

According to that chart there were 1-2 years in the 90s where the headcount of health care bureaucracy quadrupled, but the trendline for price did not change at all (maybe the smoothing is too aggressive? I couldn't find the source data). How do you conclude that the problem is administrators if an increase of 300% in # of admin doesn't produce a proportional change in the price?

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#49
post #7

> The three companies said they plan to set up a new independent company "that is free from profit-making incentives and constraints." I wonder if they will be setting it up as a health insurance cooperative, an organizational structure in which the primary goal is to serve its members, rather than to generate value for external shareholders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_cooperative It's not at all…

This is something I've been thinking about for a while - what would insurance companies (and even other companies in every vertical) look like with some incentive other than profit? Paying good salaries is one thing, but doing it for the sake of external shareholders is a different case.

Newman's Own is one interesting (and successful) example I can think of that's an otherwise for-profit company acting effectively as a charity. Are there papers/books about how effective this would be in practice?

Re: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company

#50
post #7

> The three companies said they plan to set up a new independent company "that is free from profit-making incentives and constraints." I wonder if they will be setting it up as a health insurance cooperative, an organizational structure in which the primary goal is to serve its members, rather than to generate value for external shareholders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_cooperative It's not at all…

This feels like a setup for a broader push into healthcare by these companies. The sector is still growing, Amazon is already working out the pharmacy space. "[F]ree from profit-making incentives and constraints" sounds like the strategy they've used so far to dominate sections of online retail.

They can tackle profit from other angles - sell medical supplies, etc.
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