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Netflix is now worth more than $100B

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#41

Post by e40 »

ioquatix wrote: post #4
ebbv wrote: post #2

Can we infer from this that at the end of Q3 they had ~25 million subscribers? I am not planning to cancel Netflix but I am frustrated at how terrible most of the content is, and how hard it is to find anything with the current interface. I hope they're rethinking their UX and reconsidering their current approach of "License a bunch of really cheap awful content to make it seem like there's a lot of stuff to watch."

The thing that bothers me is how long it takes for content to come to Netflix. For example, in NZ, I still don't have access to season 2 of The Expanse. Remind me again why I'm paying monthly for this service!?

The Expanse is not their content, so it will always take longer to get to Netflix (if it ever shows up).

Amazon had a teaser for The Expanse, and season 1 was free. I ended up buying season 2, because I couldn't find good subtitles for the torrent I downloaded. I did this with Mr Robot, too. I can't hear as well as I used to and subtitles are really important to me.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#42

Post by eldavido »

anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking.

The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been.

These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affecting every asset class from real estate to public market equity to early-stage startups to commodities, and you aren't the only one who's worried about it (I am).

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#43

Post by lobster_johnson »

amelius wrote: post #3

My only fear: soon there will be no BitTorrent seeders left.

On the other hand, as long as the current streaming services' back catalog of available movies and TV shows is so ridiculously meagre, BitTorrent will do pretty well, I suspect.

I wonder who's going to supply that back catalog. Both Apple and Amazon have a fairly lackluster collection. For the real good stuff, there's FilmStruck (which has a small but revolving portion of the Criterion Collection), MUBI and Fandor. But it's pretty ridiculous that you have to subscribe to a combination of these to get access to quality media.

Meanwhile, companies like MGM and Warner Bros. are sitting on huge, underused back catalogs from their entire company history that's not available to watch, not even on DVD.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#44

Post by lobster_johnson »

cm2187 wrote: post #33
dvt wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

N different services still come out cheaper than cable. I pay for Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime (which comes with Video) so let's say ~ $30 a month. Compared to Cox Cable, it's not even close -- $30 is Cox' entry level cable offering (and I can't share it with my family, nor watch shows at my own leisure). My bet is that there's plenty of cash still left. Until cable companies wise up (which is probably never), Net…

That’s n different services just to get a decent coverage of recent releases. As for the back catalogue, I haven’t seen anything that is even close to decent.

I supplement the big ones with FilmStruck (has a subset of the Criterion Collection), MUBI and Fandor. Together they have a decent collection of "older" (pre-2010s) films.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#45

Post by nicoburns »

lev99 wrote: post #31
65934 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think these services will affect Torrents in a significant way. I know people who have Amazon prime,yet torrent some shows because they are censored heavily in my country. Also, nflx doesn't offer some movies I want In my country, so I use torrents and haven't had any noticeable problem regarding seeds.

It is very hard to gather statistics on this, but my intuition (casual observance) is that torrent seeding has been declining for the last 10 years, and I suspect streaming services play a non-trival role in the decline.

Anecdotally, it's illegal free streaming services that I see people using as much as legitimate ones like netflix.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#46

Post by mastazi »

tajen wrote: post #26
65934 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think these services will affect Torrents in a significant way. I know people who have Amazon prime,yet torrent some shows because they are censored heavily in my country. Also, nflx doesn't offer some movies I want In my country, so I use torrents and haven't had any noticeable problem regarding seeds.

In France Netflix acts as a limited 1-season preview to tease me into torrenting the full series. House of Cards only had season 1 when the 4th was out in the USA.

Could it be that it's because Netflix arrived late in France and by that time it had already sold the rights to broadcast House of Cards in France to some pay TV network? In Australia we had similar issues. If that's the case, the situation should "normalise" in a couple of years, since the rights are usually time-constrained.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#47

Post by nimos »

dasil003 wrote: post #27
nimos wrote: post #16

Surprised Netflix hasn't branched out into more content types or more dynamic content. You now have this two way communication channel seems kind of boring to not try and use it even just for mostly video content. Some of their shows run 7+ million an episode. If you look at the development costs of simple mobile games and cut out all the stuff related to IAP it seems like they could create a lot of value for custome…

Are more people going to subscribe to Netflix because of this? Will they be distracted from the core business? Building a streaming video service is very different from building games of any sort, do they want to dilute their talent by going out and hiring for this? Sorry but I just don't see how this in any makes sense other than, "hey Netflix is doing really well, why don't they pull a Google and start throwing spa…

Do they ever actually hire people directly to make any of their content? I assumed it was all contracted out to production companies, I know it is for some shows. They could do the same thing for games just acting like a distributor.

I think it's more likely to keep people subscribed then generate new subscriptions. No one person is going to like all the content they make. Personally I'd really enjoy having some fun well made mobile games I knew wouldn't try to sucker me at every turn with IAP. I think people with kids would really appreciate this. Their competitive advantage is they don't have to worry about IAP or marketing.

I don't think this really falls into the category of "throwing spaghetti at the wall." It's creating entertainment content for a fixed monthly cost. Different entertainment, sure, but it's no self driving car.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#48

Post by bufferoverflow »

eldavido wrote: post #42
anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere.

Cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

Applied neural networks.

Automation.

Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years.

Good cheap batteries.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#49

Post by stevenwoo »

ghaff wrote: post #18
CobrastanJorji wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternately, Netflix's DVD service is still around and still has a much better selection than Netflix.

Unfortunately they've been letting their back catalog rot away but I still find a minimal DVD subscription to be a good way to watch both brand new and older films.

I'm not sure if it's just me or have there been zero new releases in the DVD section in 2018? Also sometimes I found DVD's on their top 100 list before they show up in the new releases section - like they don't want to have a bunch of people ask to rent a disc if they think it's going to be popular.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#50

Post by joering2 »

How do they make money?? I mean - seriously? And how will they stand up now that NN is gone and any company/website using much more traffic will be force to pay more?

Please help me with the math -- at any given day, me, my wife and 2 kids are streaming netflix on multiple devices in HD; most likely pulling tens of gigabytes of data per day. How is that all covered under $10.99 per month?? and on the top - they make solid profit?? HOW??

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