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2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

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Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#41

Post by MichaelGG »

Guatemala numbers are less because they only count it as homicide if someone dies at the scene. If you manage to get into a hospital then die, it's not in the stats.

There's no "fine tuning" of police operations in Guatemala. Everyone is incompetent, and the UN and other "human rights" groups fuck it up even more. Average citizens are afraid to even kill thieves and extortionists due to court prosecution. Said criminals continue to run gangs from inside prisons. Most "good" people just leave as soon as they can. My ex finally called it quits when Telefonica, the multinational phone company, got extorted. Someone calls them up, tells them they owe $X/week, and then just starts shooting employees. It's getting worse, not better.

The only hope I've had here in recent times was several people, including young women, talking fondly about Rios Montt and how they wish a leader would come clean stuff up. Even a semi-indigenous person told me that (despite him supposedly being genocidal). Unfortunately GT has a preference for electing nitwits that can't even steal without getting caught. That's how incompetent they are. So it's unsure if we'll ever see a strong ruler come back in. But now more than ever are people ready for that.

Turns out, when you can't safely walk around, when you can't start a business because any day you'll get a phone call that means either bankruptcy, death, or exile, yeah damn right you start preferring a military rule. As one woman told me, "at least I could walk anywhere, anytime with my purse and no one ever troubled me".

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#42

Post by MichaelGG »

jernfrost wrote: post #28
adventured wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You get into all sorts of radical variances when you dig into locational data eg across the US. The common US murder rate where ~95% of the population lives, is closer to Canada typically, at around 1.5 to 2.5. Then you have extreme murder rate areas in the worst parts of eg Baltimore and Chicago that blow the scale up (Baltimore hit 56 per 100k for 2017, with more murders than NYC). Several dozen neighborhoods in th…

It is like that in almost all countries though. Most countries have towns or cities with much higher than average rate. That is natural. Except e.g. the most violent city in Sweden has the same rate as the average in the US

What's the racial make-up of this violence in Sweden Vs the US? Sweden should have zero spots that rival US cities for violence.

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#43

Post by iguy »

grecy wrote: post #11
quantumleap22 wrote: post #3

For comparison, overall and by-race data for the US: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6631a9.htm

The USA falls right between Ecuador and Chile. Among OECD countries, only 3 countries are worse than the USA [1] The USA really does rank among developing countries in a lot of different measures. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-201...

Here's one take-home message: if you made up a country which was 10% like Venezuela and 90% like Germany, then it would have murder stats double the USA.

It would also have a GDP much like the USA, and would qualify for the OECD.

Obviously this is just about how averages work -- the high violence stats of the 10% can completely skew the average, but their low income stats can't. But it's worth remembering, every time someone tries to tell you what an outlier among rich countries the US is. It's a large, diverse, country... and often different averages are telling you facts about completely different people & places.

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#44

Post by adventured »

jernfrost wrote: post #28
adventured wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You get into all sorts of radical variances when you dig into locational data eg across the US. The common US murder rate where ~95% of the population lives, is closer to Canada typically, at around 1.5 to 2.5. Then you have extreme murder rate areas in the worst parts of eg Baltimore and Chicago that blow the scale up (Baltimore hit 56 per 100k for 2017, with more murders than NYC). Several dozen neighborhoods in th…

It is like that in almost all countries though. Most countries have towns or cities with much higher than average rate. That is natural. Except e.g. the most violent city in Sweden has the same rate as the average in the US

It's not like that in most countries in fact. The US variance between high murder parts of high murder rate cities and the murder rate for the other 95% to 97% of the population is several times greater than other countries with comparable murder rates.

The murder rate among Sweden's largest cities does not consistently vary by ~20-30 fold top to bottom. That's the gulf between New York City and Baltimore, or Honolulu and St Louis, or Detroit and Austin TX. That extreme of a variance, is very unusual for all but a few countries.

Argentina for example, which is at least somewhat similar to the US in per capita murders in a given year, in their major cities you do not see Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago type examples of extreme outliers vs the ~6 national rate (eg Buenos Aires is typically around 5 or 6, as is Cordoba). Rosario, which saw a large murder rate spike in 2012-13, was considered shocking, because the murder rate went from ~10 to ~22 over a few years. So the US national rate is lower than Argentina, while having drastically higher outliers like Baltimore and Detroit versus eg Rosario (their bad case example).

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#45

Post by gsteinb88 »

Red_Tarsius wrote: post #36
quantumleap22 wrote: post #3

For comparison, overall and by-race data for the US: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6631a9.htm

That chart is far from surprising. I was shocked to find out that 52% of US homicides recorded between 1980 and 2008 were committed by black offenders, but only around 13% of Americans are black! Pointing to poverty rates is not a satisfactory answer. Whatever the reason, people should be able to acknowledge hard truths and still uphold equal rights.

How about pointing to several hundred years of systemic slavery and oppression without any meaningful reparation efforts?

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#46

Post by adventured »

gsteinb88 wrote: post #45
Red_Tarsius wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart is far from surprising. I was shocked to find out that 52% of US homicides recorded between 1980 and 2008 were committed by black offenders, but only around 13% of Americans are black! Pointing to poverty rates is not a satisfactory answer. Whatever the reason, people should be able to acknowledge hard truths and still uphold equal rights.

How about pointing to several hundred years of systemic slavery and oppression without any meaningful reparation efforts?

Try having a conversation with Europeans about how many trillions of dollars in reparations they owe black Americans and black Latin Americans (those that are descendants of slaves), for the millions of slaves their various nations/empires transported from Africa to North and South America over centuries.

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#47

Post by toomuchtodo »

purple-again wrote: post #37
Retric wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both city's and countries rates vary a lot by area. However, comparing the numbers is IMO fairly meaningful for a general idea how dangerous they are. Currently, St. Louis, United States, sit's at # 14 most dangerous city worldwide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

Yet millionaires sit having tea in St Louis right now with zero fear that they are in any danger. City metrics are as useful as state and country. Some places are safer than others. Usually determined by how much mONEY is available in that place to pay for armed force to keep it safe.

Their fear (or lack thereof) and the real danger is not comparable.

To believe you aren’t in danger does not make it so.

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#48

Post by antoncohen »

There are a bunch of interesting ways to break down homicide rates. I find by cities to be the most interesting, I think correlates stronger to how safe I "feel" in an area compared to national rates.

Top homicide rate for cites in the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

US cites (sort by murder):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#49

Post by hackermailman »

IkmoIkmo wrote: post #16
_delirium wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of that list is ordered how I'd expect, but I wouldn't have guessed that NY has significantly lower than US-average murder rates, and Alaska significantly higher. Interestingly both CA and TX are pretty much exactly at the US average, despite fairly different politics/policies.

NY has restrictive gun-controls, is quite urban/dense and has the 2nd highest gdp/capita by state. They're all correlated with lower murder rates, that helps explain things a bit on NY. The one thing NY does have is high inequality measured in gini, the highest of all states. That usually drives crime/murder rates. But it's probably because of rich outliers (extreme upper capital class), rather than a big gap between…

Canada has far more restrictive gun control than NY, yet we are already on track to beat NY state in shootings this year with some cities having a 94% increase in violent gang offenses involving illegal handguns according to StatsCan. The difference must be policing and whatever gang strategy NY state has developed to get kids not to join them.

Re: 2017 Homicide Rates in Latin America and the Carribean

#50

Post by lostlogin »

MichaelGG wrote: post #41

Guatemala numbers are less because they only count it as homicide if someone dies at the scene. If you manage to get into a hospital then die, it's not in the stats. There's no "fine tuning" of police operations in Guatemala. Everyone is incompetent, and the UN and other "human rights" groups fuck it up even more. Average citizens are afraid to even kill thieves and extortionists due to court prosecution. Said crimin…

> Average citizens are afraid to even kill thieves and extortionists due to court prosecution.

This is a good thing usually. What are you meaning?

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