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Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#41

Post by toyg »

jballanc wrote: post #19
marze wrote: post #3

Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money, and unilaterally state a position on trade terms? I realize this may sound naive, but I’m just curious.

Because the U.K. is not self-sufficient. Actually, I'm fairly certain that no country in today's world is self-sufficient. That means that for people to get by, day-to-day, the U.K. will need to import "stuff". If they were to simply up-and-leave the EU, chances are that the EU would retaliate by: * closing borders with the U.K. * embargoing or imposing severe tariffs on U.K. exports * raise prices on U.K. imports to…

> embargoing or imposing severe tariffs on U.K. exports

They don't even have to actually do anything to achieve that. WTO rules basically establish such tariffs already.

> raise prices on U.K. imports to cover the monies not paid by the U.K.

Same here. Also, additional tax revenues would likely be collected on business "redirected" from the UK towards internal companies.

I still hope we'll get another referendum before we reach a point of no return.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#42

Post by dragonwriter »

masklinn wrote: post #34
marze wrote: post #3

Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money, and unilaterally state a position on trade terms? I realize this may sound naive, but I’m just curious.

> Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money They can, but then travel and trade becomes ~illegal between the UK and pretty much everyone else, the powder keg of NI starts heating back up, you've got a bunch of britons illegally present in mainland EU and likewise mainland residents in the UK, … Oh and the UK becomes known for having no respect for international deals, which makes…

> They can, but then travel and trade becomes ~illegal between the UK and pretty much everyone else

Reverting to WTO rules and hard (but not closed) borders isn't trade and travel being illegal, but it is a lot less free than the state when the UK was in the EU.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#43

Post by WhirlingBirdz »

unchocked wrote: post #23

Delusions are hard to get rid of. Leave campaigned on lies, voters swallowed them, and the government is now bound to try and live by those lies. Like all delusions, this will continue to entrench itself against reason. When the negotiators fail to reach their delusional goal, the deluded will formulate a conspiracy narrative to protect their delusion.

Other explanations for why the working-class voted for Brexit are available.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#44

Post by toyg »

1undo wrote: post #39
namelost wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say to your friends, "Let's share the cost of dinner". Then when you decide you don't like the dinner, walk out halfway through, leaving your friends to pick up the bill for what you ordered. Once word gets round, not only your friends but nobody is going to go out to dinner with you ever again.

Yes, I agree to "share the cost of dinner". But I don't get the food that I ordered, and eat very little of it. And I watch others eat a lot of food without contributing to the tab. I then want to leave the dinner which is only right

> I then want to leave the dinner which is only right

But you would at least pay for what you ordered. Anyone just upping and leaving would be considered very rude, and nobody would invite him ever again.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#45

Post by interdrift »

WhirlingBirdz wrote: post #40

Brexit is bad for the UK. We can all agree on that? But it's also a TRAGEDY for the EU. They've lost one of their principal contributors, as well as prestige and status. This is generally not talked about. The EU are negotiating HARD. Why? Because they are in a position of weakness. If they were in a position of strength then they would let the UK go easily. Everyone knows this. The complications are that the UK poli…

This is not true. Brexit is good for the UK and the EU. Now finally clowns like Farage will be exposed for their 'rebel for good' fake ideals. The British public will either accept it's own sentence following decades of 'the bad bureaucrats in Brussels' fake news or come to realize that cooperation at both economical and political on large scale is the way to move forward.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#46

Post by jstanley »

sz4kerto wrote: post #8
marze wrote: post #3

Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money, and unilaterally state a position on trade terms? I realize this may sound naive, but I’m just curious.

Because _everything_ that happens between countries (and between the UK an the EU) is driven by treaties and agreements. Simple example: if UK leaves without agreements and treaties then there can be no flights from the UK to the EU. This sounds crazy but we have tens of thousands of bilateral agreements that drive even the most fundamental things, and they can be (and are) affected by e.g. the EU membership. Or UK c…

> Or UK citizens would not be able to buy products from the EU because there would be no agreements in place that'd allow companies in the EU to export goods.

This is where you and I fundamentally disagree about how trade works.

If I want to trade with a person in a foreign country, I don't see why our governments need to even know, let alone come up with some agreement. If the foreign person and I can agree a deal, why can't we trade without asking permission from our governments?

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#49

Post by pimmen »

marze wrote: post #3

Why can’t the U.K. just leave? Say we are gone, we are not giving you any money, and unilaterally state a position on trade terms? I realize this may sound naive, but I’m just curious.

You absolutely can just leave!

Now, lets say the five times larger economy doesn't accept your unilateral trade position, who just happens to be by far your largest and closest trading partner, what do you think happens then to your companies who are reliant on the EU market? Even if you don't work for such a company, what do you think would happen to your employer's clients? And if you work in the public sector, what do you think will happen to the tax revenue from those companies?

More than 20% of the UK's GDP is made up of exports to the EU. What do you think will happen to the government that cost the country millions of jobs because of one stupid decision to appease populists come election year? That's why the government can't just leave because it would be extremely popular in the short term but within a few years bring about very dire consequences.

Re: Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU

#50

Post by dguaraglia »

WhirlingBirdz wrote: post #43
unchocked wrote: post #23

Delusions are hard to get rid of. Leave campaigned on lies, voters swallowed them, and the government is now bound to try and live by those lies. Like all delusions, this will continue to entrench itself against reason. When the negotiators fail to reach their delusional goal, the deluded will formulate a conspiracy narrative to protect their delusion.

Other explanations for why the working-class voted for Brexit are available.

Is this really a new norm, where troll accounts are created to push bigoted talking points? This account is 9 minutes old. The other day I had a similar “interaction” with a 30 minute old account. Who is paying for this campaign?
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