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The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

nobelprize.org

41–50 of 82 posts

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#41

Economic Sciences deserve to take over the whole Nobel prize. They should get all the prizes. They have proven themselves as the ultimate woodo wizards of "applied" scientists. If you go to source page, you will see that the full name of the prize is "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel" Why? There is no Nobel prize for economics. This was a self-congratulatory add-on instituted…

Most people are aware that it's a post-hoc Nobel memorial price, and laureates are selected by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (same as physics and chemistry), are announced with the other Nobel Prize laureates, and receive the award at the same ceremony.

So, it's for all practical purposes the Nobel price in economics, and your unsubstantiated post doesn't really add much.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#42
post #21

While I love the behavioral economists (esp. Kahnemann and Tversky), a lot of psychologists have told economists for a long time that assuming basic rationality as a starting point was a fundamental error in the field. Taking it as an axiom has led to all sorts of misguided efforts and wasted time. From the article: "That's the point: It's obvious to anyone who pays any attention at all to himself or his fellow human…

Physicists assume things are spheres and use that to solve a bunch of problems. It's important to know 'why' economists use this abstraction for modeling before patently dismissing it. Economists notice that on average, people in the aggregate tend to behave rationally sometimes. Scrutiny should be applied to the assumptions, but it can still help explain economic systems.

In some cases, abstraction can be done without loss of accuracy. For example, in physics we can assume that charges bounded inside a sphere can be modeled as a point charge at the center of the sphere. It's not just a simpler model; it's mathematically equivalent, and provably so.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#43
post #21

While I love the behavioral economists (esp. Kahnemann and Tversky), a lot of psychologists have told economists for a long time that assuming basic rationality as a starting point was a fundamental error in the field. Taking it as an axiom has led to all sorts of misguided efforts and wasted time. From the article: "That's the point: It's obvious to anyone who pays any attention at all to himself or his fellow human…

Ehhh.

For the longest while, mainstream macroeconomics was grounded on a few insights about irrational behavior. Pre-Keynesian "naive rationality" theory thought recessions would cure themselves as falling demand made prices fall: therefore, recessions caused by "general glut" or "overproduction" would never happen; there would never be "involuntary unemployment".

Keynes and others argued that under systemic falling demand/rising unemployment people would go chicken little and reduce their consumption. That kind of thinking was very very useful and was the basis of how nearly every nation dealt with the Great Depression. To a great degree, it's still reflected in current fiscal and monetary policies.

Textbook macro 101 is actually all behavioral theory: people either consume a fraction of their income (Keynes), of their lifetime income (Modigliani) or of their "permanent income" (the one they're used to in the average and expect for the future.

But this basic Keynesian recipe of assuming consumers behave according to heuristics ran into some rough sand from the 70s on; and a few powerful ideas on the limitations of generalizing psychological insights arose of this period. I think the most powerful of these is the Lucas critique.

To simplify, the Lucas critique says that any attempt to exploit the heuristic nonrationality that economic models in general assume will cause people to change their heuristics. So either economics is fundamentally and hopelessly bogus, or any predictable behavior has to come out of a fixed-point iteration process that may lead to the wrong platonic ideal of "rationality" but leads to Brower's fixed point theorem and game theory.

Thaler comes at the other end of this arc. Has the pendulum again swung too far? World Bank economists have allegedly been misusing DSGE models, for example; but this is more of an institutional flaw that gives entire staffs these crystal balls they aren't. The Lucas critique itself says these models can never predict the future.

So let's recapitulate the pendulum: Ricardo and Malthus used to argue in the 19th century about the possibility of a persistent glut, what the Marxists call an "overproduction crisis". Mixed examples had been seen, but nothing like a developed capitalist economy existed. Then came the Great Depression and the Malthusians rose to the task and fixed the damn thing with the spit and half-baked behavioral psychology you can read in the "General Theory" by Keynes. This works until it doesn't (note that during this period people have also had increasing access to information, etc. rather than behaving as blind mole rats as they might in Ricardo's time) and psychological ad-hockeries fall out of fashion.

Now, in this great arc: Thaler, new Nobel laureate, claims that you can slightly nudge people from Lucasian fixed points. Sure, maybe. My boss is a big fan. The pendulum swings.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#44
post #18

An irrational thing Amazon knows and many, many other online sellers don't: people don't want to pay for delivery. That is, they'd much rather pay $20 total with free delivery, than, for example, $15 for the goods + $3 for delivery. It's amazing the number of non-Amazon online shops who still don't seem to know this.

That's not irrational - it's saving time, effort, and grief having to think about how much delivery will cost.

I took GP's "irrational" in the economic sense of always trying for the best economic outcome, not the psychological outcome.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#45
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physicists assume things are spheres and use that to solve a bunch of problems. It's important to know 'why' economists use this abstraction for modeling before patently dismissing it. Economists notice that on average, people in the aggregate tend to behave rationally sometimes. Scrutiny should be applied to the assumptions, but it can still help explain economic systems.

In some cases, abstraction can be done without loss of accuracy. For example, in physics we can assume that charges bounded inside a sphere can be modeled as a point charge at the center of the sphere. It's not just a simpler model; it's mathematically equivalent, and provably so.

There are a lot of simplifications that get used in physics and engineering calculations. Ideal electrical circuits, ideal gasses, thin cylinder walls, lossless collisions, etc. etc. Whether or not a given simplification is appropriate depends on the situation (how much accuracy is needed? how close the simplification is to reality? what's the cost of not simplifying?)

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#46
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not irrational - it's saving time, effort, and grief having to think about how much delivery will cost.

I took GP's "irrational" in the economic sense of always trying for the best economic outcome, not the psychological outcome.

Even in the economic sense those things can absolutely be considered as costs. They're harder to quantify but no economist would tell you that the most economically rational decision is to always spend the least hard currency.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#47
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean that doesn't really make him stand out; most economists will agree with the Big Short's account of the crisis. Except perhaps the coffee shop discussion at the end where Steve Carrell states banks did it because they expected to get bailed out (all evidence points that they didn't expect to get bailed out a priori and that they simply did it because shareholders and managers are greedy short sighted morons). T…

Well, bankers did have an incentive to make bigger bets though, because on the upside they'd win more, and on the downside, well, who cares, the bank might go bust or be bailed out - it doesn't really matter, the downside (for the managers) is floored. Nobody has gone to jail, right. And then, to the extent that their assumption was that the payment system and economy does not collapse, it was predicated on a public…

Agreed, bank managers need to face personal consequences for reckless behavior that has negative externalities on society.

I'm personally in favor of criminal prosecution but I don't see that happening. Indeed I'm generally in favor of keeping banks large for returns to scale benefits, but the political perversion of large banks may offset that benefit

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#48
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not irrational - it's saving time, effort, and grief having to think about how much delivery will cost.

I took GP's "irrational" in the economic sense of always trying for the best economic outcome, not the psychological outcome.

It still works - I can use the time that I don't spend trying to figure out shipping costs to do some work and earn money instead.

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#49
from his amazon book

>By a nudge we mean anything that influences our choices. A school cafeteria might try to nudge kids toward good diets by putting the healthiest foods at front.

Hasn't this been tried in schools, does it actually work? Also, isn't this common sense ?

Re: The Prize in Economic Sciences 2017

#50
post #21

While I love the behavioral economists (esp. Kahnemann and Tversky), a lot of psychologists have told economists for a long time that assuming basic rationality as a starting point was a fundamental error in the field. Taking it as an axiom has led to all sorts of misguided efforts and wasted time. From the article: "That's the point: It's obvious to anyone who pays any attention at all to himself or his fellow human…

It's really not like economists don't know these things. Kahnemann got his Nobel a long time ago, after all. They also didn't grow tired to mention the flaws in the model when I learned them as an undergrad 10+ years ago. It's like people insisting physicists are ignoring wind resistance with their laws of motion. They know!

Absolutely. And of course, Kahneman and Tversky and Thaler didn't get a Nobel price for saying, "oh, hey, listen guys, actually sometimes people don't follow our standard 'homo economicus' rationality assumptions", but to study these deviations carefully (empirically and theoretically) and note when they're important and put them into a coherent framework with some predictive power (aka, a theory).

On a side note, the whole libertarian agenda is largely predicated on a caricature of free markets populated by homines economici that was not even advocated by Friedman during the heyday of the Chicago school, let alone today. A professor from the Chicago business school (where Thaler is) came to HK to give a talk (and collect money from alumni), and I asked whether they still subscribed to the Chicago school, given their current research, and she just shook her head and replied "What do you think?"

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