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Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

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Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#41

Post by ShabbosGoy »

smallnamespace wrote: post #11
neptunespear wrote: post #10

Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standards (looking at you, FeliCa) China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ec…

Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?

Per capita GDP will rise if population remains unchanged or declines.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#42

Post by mc32 »

neptunespear wrote: post #36
mc32 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population... I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes. We all know consumerism…

That was a big typo since I meant to finish that sentence. I've fixed it now.

Ok, that makes sense now. I agree it's quite an accomplishment. If anyone can manage that transition, I think it's Japan --despite not being quite the centrally planned econ.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#43

Post by matt4077 »

fiblye wrote: post #17
tanilama wrote: post #6

Automation is no cure for Japan. Their influence is waning rapidly, in many sectors. I would say that, with an aging population, Japan is turning into a stale country, culture wise and economy wise alike.

I think the average Japanese person doesn't care about how stale outsiders think they are, and they certainly don't feel like they need a "cure." If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive economic bubble. Really, it's honestly kind of freaky how often I see western media articles about how Japan needs to act now, or they're doomed to fail and their population will vanish. Yet I se…

> If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive economic bubble.

So, you're agreeing that Japan is on a long downward slope to economic and technological irrelevance, but you believe the average Japanese would rather accept this than immigration?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#44

Post by derping69 »

surfmike wrote: post #28
mc32 wrote: post #12

Japan is at the forefront of a post-industrial society. Much of the rest of the west would be in a similar position, if not for imported labor or outsourcing labor. China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be where they are. The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature economies soon enough. The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of…

There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.

Because the goal of mass immigration of unskilled workers isn't what's best for the country, its to bring in people who will be reliant on the government and thus always vote for more government, thus further consolidating power. Also has the benefit of driving wages down resulting in more natives being reliant on government.

If we really needed more workers why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids instead of spending that money on refugees and immigrants?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#45

Post by Tsagadai »

theseatoms wrote: post #30
surfmike wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.

Economic equilibrium does tend to render most of those types of extrapolative predictions moot.

Nothing in economic history has ever indicated that economics is equilibrium seeking. Capitalism is all about growth and equilibrium is stagnation.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#46

Post by ufjvuc »

hiram112 wrote: post #31
surfmike wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.

It's more like two opposing narrators: 1. Employers: we need more immigration, not enough workers (willing to work for the shitty wages I want to pay). 2. Workers: automation is kill all the jobs (that pay well, but require few skills).

What if the workers just owned the means of production and there was an adequate safety net?

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#47

Post by mc32 »

matt4077 wrote: post #37
temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #16

Japan has never been one to shy away from high-tech industries, and as the article notes, aesthetic sensibilities towards kawaii robots make this a natural progression for a high-tech, ethnically homogeneous, aging nation. Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted by intellectuals and practiced by widesprea…

Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late 1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today. And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Making robots care for the elderly will jus…

I think you're projecting western values on Japan.

While we may see "dehumanization" they don't. Where you see a pornography fetish, they see it as an extension of their sexuality. For them it's progress. They have valued tradition and will continue to do so. It's not an ephemeral value they hold.

Germany found a different path. It does not necessarily mean it's the one true path.

And, long term, all societies will face the same issues. Some sooner, some much later --but face it they will.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#48

Post by zanny »

oculusthrift wrote: post #21
Moshe_Silnorin wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would automation hurt us?

a massive part of our population do no-brain jobs that could easily be automated. do you want 30 percent unemployment?

Yes? The fruitful gains of production don't go anywhere in that scenario. Fire the redundant, replace them with robots, give them a UBI, a library, and a public education that drives them towards passions rather than towards being a good factory drone.

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#49

Post by mikekchar »

This is an opinion piece backed up with practically no information whatsoever.

If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the categories where you can get a long term visa [0]

You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 points. Being under 30 gives you 15 points. Having 5 years of experience gives you 10 points. N1 on JLTP gives you 15 points.

I mean, it's ridiculous. And this is a 5 year visa with relaxed permanent residence requirements, ability to sponsor your parents, ability to work in any field (even jobs that aren't related to your skill set!!!). The list goes on!

And if by some incredibly unfortunate circumstance you can't qualify for that, there are still over 10 categories where you basically only need a relevant university degree and a job offer for a 3 year visa.

And if that isn't enough, you can start a company in Japan with about ~$50K and sponsor a business visa for yourself.

My wife is Japanese and I'm here on a spousal visa. The application process took 1 week and was free. I am also eligible for relaxed permanent residence status.

Seriously, compare this to your home country and then come back and tell me that Japan doesn't want immigration.

Now if you want to know why Japan doesn't have a lot of immigration, it's because it is difficult for foreigners to live here if they can't speak Japanese and/or they can't accept Japanese culture. But as far as the government is concerned, the red carpet has been rolled out for a long time. If you have an established company in many foreign countries and wish to open a branch office in Japan (so that you can transfer people here), the government will even give you free assistance!

[0] - http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html [1] - http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculat...

Re: Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

#50

Post by generic_user »

mc32 wrote: post #12

Japan is at the forefront of a post-industrial society. Much of the rest of the west would be in a similar position, if not for imported labor or outsourcing labor. China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be where they are. The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature economies soon enough. The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of…

The promise of a post industrial society was always that western countries would be able to have smaller families with more highly educated children who were more productive and innovative. Future generations could reduce resource usage but improve the standard of living given there continued scientific and educational progress.

Somewhere along the like that seems to have been thrown out the window and the idea of a 'consumer economy' took its place. Now we have a model of low education low wage consumers who keep the economy going by buying endless plastic junk. Perpetually distracted with entertainment and unhealthy unsustainable lifestyles.

I think Japan is making a wise choice.

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