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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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41–50 of 376 posts

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#41

Its looking even worse (Or better for a buyer) for electric cars. A cursory craigslist search shows a 2014 Fiat 500e for ~7.5k @33k miles and Nissan Leafs for as little as ~5k @42k miles. All with clean titles. A used Model S 60 (2013) can be found for ~40k @60k miles, which I think is good but not great, especially considering the quality issues early on. I'm waiting to pounce on 1st generation electric cars that wi…

Once self driving cars arrive all others will be obsolete.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that's about right. Take some time and go through autotrader.com. $15k isn't unusual for a used mid-value sedan with ~25,000 to ~65,000 miles. For example, look up Hyundai Sonatas, 2013, with that mile load, you'll see prices around $14,000 to $18,000. Or check out Toyota Camrys, 2012 model year. You'll typically pay around $14,000 to $16,000 to get into one with 40,000 to 60,000 miles. So that's a 5+ year old ca…

I don't disagree that you can pay $15K for a used car, I doubt that the average price of a used car is $15K. The average price of the first 30 used cars for sale by owner on the Seattle craigslist is $5,896: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/cto Average price of the first 30 by dealer however, is $21,567: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/ctd But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

> But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Me, because it came with a 7 year warranty. The price was good and the dealer offers a shuttle to and from my work (or my home) when it is in for maintenance.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#43
checked the KBB for my car back in may and it said $10k (2010 a4), checked again last month and it was down to $8500. I'm not really depending on the car to retain any value at all, but it's interesting to see how quickly that price is dropping.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#44
post #21

In the UK, many cars sold in the past few years are under a so-called Personal Contract Plan (PCP). These are basically sub-prime loans for cars where you lease the car for the difference between its purchase price and its projected depreciated value at the end of the term. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-p... One of the UK regulators recently warned about the exposure to these loans. "An i…

British PCPs are very similar to the car leases that have been very common in the United States for many years (in both prime and subprime markets). There has been a lot of recent discussion about the risks associated with PCPs is mainly because they are relatively new in the UK, and because they have grown so quickly lately from almost zero. That means assumptions about the “residual value” (to use the American term) of the cars at the end of the contract, which are based largely on data from before PCPs became so popular, may not be so accurate.

That’s probably less of a concern in the US, where the lenders have more experience with these things, although car sales (and leases) have also grown rapidly in recent years, so there is still something to worry about.

In both countries, as I understand it, it is the lender who loses out if the resale value is less than rejected. So at least individual car owners are somewhat protected, and the biggest risk might be having to return the car and not being able to get a new lease/PCP with attractive terms.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#45
post #15
post #5

Actually it's not because I don't think about the value of my car. It's not an investment, it's an expense.

Pretty much everything is an expense, even mortgages, most of the time. The liberal use of the word "investment" in America is irksome. Marketing has hijacked our minds.

Honestly a car can been seen as an investment in the classic sense. If you buy a car for its utility, i.e. to help you get to work or otherwise be more productive, you will get a return you may not have been able to otherwise. Of course most people spend way too much or buy cars they don't need, so the return can be terrible.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#46
post #39
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, but the value of your car plays an important role in that expense. And expected depreciation is an important factor to consider when buying a car.

Not if you plan to run it to the ground. Then it's simply about upkeep until it dies.

[deleted]

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#48
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that you can pay $15K for a used car, I doubt that the average price of a used car is $15K. The average price of the first 30 used cars for sale by owner on the Seattle craigslist is $5,896: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/cto Average price of the first 30 by dealer however, is $21,567: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/ctd But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot? I bought an Audi off lease last year. It's still under warranty, free maintenance (until 80k km), low mileage (37k km), fully loaded with options, and I saved $20k vs a new one.

Most used car dealers don't give you a warranty: https://seattle.craigslist.org/skc/ctd/d/2015-bmw-x5-35i-awd... Note the conspicious absence of the word "warranty" on this listing. If the car falls apart as you drive off the lot, you're out $35K.

CPO cars have a warranty, which sharply limits your downside risk. Buying a used car from a manufacturer is a much better deal than buying it from a third party.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#49
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you tell us more? Was this in some niche segments of discontinued but popular models (like certain Subarus) or were run of the mill cars also like this?

Combination of really low interest rates on new cars, and used cars becoming more rare due to cash-for-clunkers and maybe other programs. I don't think is was the case that used cars were literally more expensive, just that with 0% financing everywhere vs paying cash for used, or vs used car loan rates, you were probably better off getting a new car.

I'm a few months from paying off my car which I got a 2% rate on. Financing a decent used car would have been a rate of around 8% - it about broke even with expected depreciation, and it was hard to find a good used car to begin with.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#50

Its looking even worse (Or better for a buyer) for electric cars. A cursory craigslist search shows a 2014 Fiat 500e for ~7.5k @33k miles and Nissan Leafs for as little as ~5k @42k miles. All with clean titles. A used Model S 60 (2013) can be found for ~40k @60k miles, which I think is good but not great, especially considering the quality issues early on. I'm waiting to pounce on 1st generation electric cars that wi…

Production of the Chevrolet Bolt has stopped due to lack of demand and bulging inventory, part of the overall problem discussed on this thread http://fortune.com/2017/07/17/gm-shutdown-chevy-bolt-supply/

All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.
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