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One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

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41–50 of 144 posts

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#41
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it almost too ironic to see a hedge fund manager righteously calling out another business model.

Herbalife's business model is "pyramid scheme", though. It's worse in basically every possible way, regardless of how poorly you view hedge funds.

And hedge funds are only allowed to take money from rather wealthy or "sophisticated" investors that should know better. Herbalife preys on the poor and down trodden.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#42
post #36
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

> with rationality on your side, how could you lose? Look at south Africa, multi vitamins, and hiv/aids denialism. It's pretty fascinating, human toll aside.

Or USA and climate change denialism and the anti-vaxers.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#43

I use to work in legislative affairs for the natural health industry. It's all one big scam. I try to explain it like this: Company A sells natural remedies, etc. Company B is a news organization which reports on natural health remedies, and also advertises for those companies, et. Nonprofit C is a consumer watchdog organization that investigates and promotes natural health. They are supported by the natural health i…

Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different.

Edit: Seriously? I'm getting down voted. Look I don't care how much you hate the natural products industry but every industry has sleazy business practices. They are not alone.

Edit2: For example I work in the entertainment industry and the awards are all made up, the news is mostly just to get attention and they have politicians in their back pockets.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#44
post #33

I use to work in legislative affairs for the natural health industry. It's all one big scam. I try to explain it like this: Company A sells natural remedies, etc. Company B is a news organization which reports on natural health remedies, and also advertises for those companies, et. Nonprofit C is a consumer watchdog organization that investigates and promotes natural health. They are supported by the natural health i…

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

-Keynes

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#45
I don't really get the Herbalife defense in here.

Here's what I know: The products are of dubious quality, and can be bought for much cheaper elsewhere. The majority of people who end up being distributors absorb a net loss, and given that many already come from financially unstable backgrounds, that loss is particularly painful. The largest sellers in the chain either got in super early, or make more money off of ancillary products (seminars, etc.) than actual sales.

That sounds shady as hell as best, downright predatory at worst, and all of the "Yeah, it might be bad, but so is X" arguments in the world don't absolve it.

I guess where the real decision fork is to what extent you feel the Government is responsible for making it harder for people to make dumb decisions by shutting down the companies that prey upon them.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#46

I live and work in Utah, which, for not completely clear to me reasons, is home to a lot of MLMs. Nu Skin, Usana, Xango, doTerra, Young Living, Jamberry (and those are the ones I can just name off the top of my head) are all headquartered here. For an area that in many ways is punching above its weight class in terms of tech companies, I occasionally have nagging (possibly unfounded?) concerns in the back of my head…

The reason I had heard is because Mormon's make great door-to-door salesmen. Many of the men have spent a year or two of door-to-door proselyting (attempting to convert). So they're used to selling to strangers and also being rejected. I'm not sure how true this is, but it seems plausible.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#47
post #45

I don't really get the Herbalife defense in here. Here's what I know: The products are of dubious quality, and can be bought for much cheaper elsewhere. The majority of people who end up being distributors absorb a net loss, and given that many already come from financially unstable backgrounds, that loss is particularly painful. The largest sellers in the chain either got in super early, or make more money off of an…

People also tend to lean heavily on their personal social network, which often alienates them from their personal friend base. And has limited supply before the success you do get from that runs out.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#48
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not like it, but it is not necessarily a scam. Some of the posts by Bronte capital mentioned in the article http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2015/06/herbalife-very-lon... http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2016/07/herbalife-and-end-...

It's unfortunate that you are being downvoted - especially since you are citing John Hempton's excellent work on the topic. It's really worth a read and an interesting counterpoint to Ackman's analysis.

He's being downvoted because the work is not excellent. Hempton uses Mormon end-of-the-world hoarding as the legitimate excuse for inventory loading.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#49
Theres a recent follow-up from fortune on this, worth reading.. according to the article the stock price has grown back to roughly where it was before Ackman's campaign. However they're in the middle of a lot of changes in response to the FTC settlement so material changes in the future are also possible.

http://fortune.com/2017/05/05/herbalife-stock-bill-ackman/

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#50
post #3

Does anyone know if there have been more developments to this story in the two years since this article was written?

Most likely there won't be any developments until the fall when the effects of the FTC settlement are reported in Herbalife's earnings. But that will only show how well they evaded the judgment since the FTC has been lacking on the enforcement front for a long time.
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