Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing' • Hacker News Board

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#41

Post by enzino » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:04 PM UTC

Analemma_ wrote: post #21

alexandercrohde wrote: post #3

Good. Here's how things should go: 1. First America stops being world police. 2. America plays ball with rest of world (adopts metric system, becomes a leader in climate, shares control of internet, turns concern toward to real issues like asteroids, population growth, health issues, cyber security) 3. Citizens acknowledge that war is a tool for siphoning tax money into the coffers of people with connections/governme…

You do realize that a bunch of our present political instability is because quite a lot of people viscerally hate and fear 4 and 5, and are voting for politicians who promise to block them, yes?

The people who viscerally hate (4) and (5) have little stakes in the economy, and will have less and less, to the point that their vote will be essentially meaningless.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#42

Post by alexandercrohde » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:04 PM UTC

Analemma_ wrote: post #24

mindcrime wrote: post #2

and the authority of governments everywhere is crumbling. Good. potentially undermining trust in incumbent governments for the foreseeable future Even better. Trusting government is a fool's errand. But, the document says, this should not be seen as defeatism, but rather a “wakeup call”. If nothing is done to adapt to this “post-primacy” environment, the complexity and speed of world events will “increasingly defy [D…

And what is your proposed replacement? I've seen a lot of libertarian/ancap complaining about governments, but never any suggestions where the cure isn't worse than the disease. FFS, look at history. When governments collapse, what springs up is never a wonderful, harmonious, anarchist collective. What actually happens is this: a short period of chaos, followed by the public willfully putting a strongman authoritaria…

You really can't think of any middle-ground between what we have now and anarchy/libertarianism?

How about just this as starters: 1. Legalize marijuana 2. End civil asset forfeiture 3. Stronger anti-trust on the internet and wireless spectrum 4. Improve the legal system to prevent civil cases from stifling free speech (perhaps by offering pro-bono lawyers to individuals sued by corporations for acts of speech only) 5. Work to end corporate influence over government.

It's not an all-or-nothing thing, we just need to decide what we care about, talk about it, and it will happen (but slowly).

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#43

Post by alexandercrohde » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:07 PM UTC

lightbyte wrote: post #38

alexandercrohde wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard people say that before, but I don't see why I should believe it. 230 years ago America didn't exist. 150 years ago black people were property. 100 years ago women could not vote. 50 years ago nobody owned a computer. Until recently, weed was illegal. The world is changing really fast, and the rate of change is getting faster. When people argue "That could never change!" I have to wonder if they have any re…

All those changes you mentioned are trivial compared to completely reworking how human society has functioned for thousands of years.

No, they're not.

I'm sure people argued the American economy would collapse without slave labor.

And America not being world police isn't a revolutionary change, we only started being world police in the last 70 years or so, and it's done more harm than good realistically.

I'm unclear what your defeatist motivation is, but it doesn't seem like you've actually sincerely thought this through.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#44

Post by RUG3Y » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:15 PM UTC

sharemywin wrote: post #12

mindcrime wrote: post #2

and the authority of governments everywhere is crumbling. Good. potentially undermining trust in incumbent governments for the foreseeable future Even better. Trusting government is a fool's errand. But, the document says, this should not be seen as defeatism, but rather a “wakeup call”. If nothing is done to adapt to this “post-primacy” environment, the complexity and speed of world events will “increasingly defy [D…

Then who do you trust no one? computers? corporations? religious leaders? scientists? How do you run society without trust?

I for one don't trust anyone in that list (maybe computers?). But, I think I can trust my neighbor. Maybe that's where it starts.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#45

Post by MR4D » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:17 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #3

Good. Here's how things should go: 1. First America stops being world police. 2. America plays ball with rest of world (adopts metric system, becomes a leader in climate, shares control of internet, turns concern toward to real issues like asteroids, population growth, health issues, cyber security) 3. Citizens acknowledge that war is a tool for siphoning tax money into the coffers of people with connections/governme…

As nice as your list is, I have a few issues with it:

1 - "World police" tends to stick around, or soon comes back. (depending on how encumbering you define the "world"): US, British Empire, Rome, Ancient Persia, Chinese Dynasties. All have sought and won control of major parts of the world because it was beneficial to them and their trading partners.

2 - Sharing control of the internet with whom? China? Russia? Iran? Saudi Arabia? Cuba? The internet is fragmenting and soon each country will have their own local control. No need to share. (unfortunately)

3 - War is about power. As long as one person wants power, there will be war of some kind.

4 - Politics is also about power. As long as politicians have that power, they will seek to keep it (see also #3). See Venezuela for a current example of how sad this can get.

6 - Status, attention, and ego are just a few things that cannot be automated away. If your point were even remotely true, then the difference between a typical underpaid school teacher and Elon Musk (or Larry Ellison, or Donald Trump, etc.) would be trivial after the 100+ years of automation we've experienced.

Finally, collapse of empires tends to be followed by periods of lower economic output and higher violence; not to mention significant loss of knowledge. I'm not happy that we have one, but seeing it disappear could easily be worse.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#46

Post by alexandercrohde » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:19 PM UTC

Koshkin wrote: post #37

alexandercrohde wrote: post #3

Good. Here's how things should go: 1. First America stops being world police. 2. America plays ball with rest of world (adopts metric system, becomes a leader in climate, shares control of internet, turns concern toward to real issues like asteroids, population growth, health issues, cyber security) 3. Citizens acknowledge that war is a tool for siphoning tax money into the coffers of people with connections/governme…

> We move toward universalizing language Perhaps Chinese would be a good choice.

I think picking any one existing language would be too emotional for people.

I don't have the implementation details. But just to illustrate how doable it'd be, I'd suggest we take something neutral (like Esperanto) and every language start adding 20 Esperanto words to their language per year, with a plan to coalesce after 200 years.

40,000 shared words isn't a full language, but it's enough to make conversations and debates possible.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#47

Post by Analemma_ » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:21 PM UTC

enzino wrote: post #41

Analemma_ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that a bunch of our present political instability is because quite a lot of people viscerally hate and fear 4 and 5, and are voting for politicians who promise to block them, yes?

The people who viscerally hate (4) and (5) have little stakes in the economy, and will have less and less, to the point that their vote will be essentially meaningless.

If that were true, then neither Trump nor Brexit would have happened. You could always claim that it is not true now but will be "in the future", but that claim is unfalsifiable.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#48

Post by Analemma_ » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:22 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #42

Analemma_ wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what is your proposed replacement? I've seen a lot of libertarian/ancap complaining about governments, but never any suggestions where the cure isn't worse than the disease. FFS, look at history. When governments collapse, what springs up is never a wonderful, harmonious, anarchist collective. What actually happens is this: a short period of chaos, followed by the public willfully putting a strongman authoritaria…

You really can't think of any middle-ground between what we have now and anarchy/libertarianism? How about just this as starters: 1. Legalize marijuana 2. End civil asset forfeiture 3. Stronger anti-trust on the internet and wireless spectrum 4. Improve the legal system to prevent civil cases from stifling free speech (perhaps by offering pro-bono lawyers to individuals sued by corporations for acts of speech only) 5…

I am in favor of all four (EDIT: five, my bad). But none of those are related to the GP's comment.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#49

Post by alexandercrohde » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:23 PM UTC

MR4D wrote: post #45

alexandercrohde wrote: post #3

Good. Here's how things should go: 1. First America stops being world police. 2. America plays ball with rest of world (adopts metric system, becomes a leader in climate, shares control of internet, turns concern toward to real issues like asteroids, population growth, health issues, cyber security) 3. Citizens acknowledge that war is a tool for siphoning tax money into the coffers of people with connections/governme…

As nice as your list is, I have a few issues with it: 1 - "World police" tends to stick around, or soon comes back. (depending on how encumbering you define the "world"): US, British Empire, Rome, Ancient Persia, Chinese Dynasties. All have sought and won control of major parts of the world because it was beneficial to them and their trading partners. 2 - Sharing control of the internet with whom? China? Russia? Iran…

1. Historical fallacy (just because things were a way in the past does not mean they will always be that way)

2. What if, like blockchain, we build a DNS model that is server agnostic? People are already working on this, if you think it's not possible you should learn more.

3. That's not valid logic.

4. That's not valid logic.

6. [There seems to be no 5?] Historical fallacy.

Re: Pentagon study declares American Empire is 'collapsing'

#50

Post by placeybordeaux » Wed, Jul 19, 2017, 6:25 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #3

Good. Here's how things should go: 1. First America stops being world police. 2. America plays ball with rest of world (adopts metric system, becomes a leader in climate, shares control of internet, turns concern toward to real issues like asteroids, population growth, health issues, cyber security) 3. Citizens acknowledge that war is a tool for siphoning tax money into the coffers of people with connections/governme…

Pretty wild oversimplification there. War is complex and doesn't happen for one reason. For instance Russia's involvement in Syria and Crimea is more about expanding territory and sphere of influence than funneling tax payer's money, Putin and the Russian oligarchs do that well enough already.

> 6. The very concept of "superiority" and "class" becomes meaningless as we move into an era of excess due to automation.

We already have excess of some things such as calories and clean clothing. The cost of 2k calories per day is a pretty small fraction of minimum wage. We are also witnessing a rise in food classism that is targeted at the foods that are hard to bring the price down on. It has become a status symbol to "know where your food comes from" or to eat at a "farm to table" restaurant. These are associated with ways to get your calories that have high logistical & labor costs.

I agree that we will see eras of excess in more and more goods and services, but the idea that humans won't find a way to show superiority or class by consuming higher cost goods/services seems kind of out of touch.