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Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

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Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#41

Post by lsseckman »

prostoalex wrote: post #28
throwaway9980 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have had multiple affluent friends who are absolutely non-tech non-geek ask me what are the hot coins. They're shoveling tens of thousands of dollars into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple based entirely on the fact that there's a run up happening. They have no understanding of what it is and the intention is sell to the greater fool after another 10x move. Maybe it isn't a bubble, but it sure does walk like a duck and…

Tens of thousands of dollars can be shovelled into low-probability high-risk outcomes nightly at a single Vegas table, of which there are many, at a single casino, of which there are many. The state lottery jackpot can swell by tens of millions of dollars in a single day when the potential payout reaches nine digits. This is just high-stakes gambling, it's not a systemic bubble until pension funds, university endowme…

this is a great point. And given market caps I doubt there are any sizeable funds invested, which may point to no bubble at all.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#42

Post by ethanwillis »

DennisP wrote: post #33
Ologn wrote: post #17

The difference is the dot-com stocks had some theoretical value - even Pets.com, people buy pet supplies online after all. Unlike commodities, equities and so forth, cryptocoins have no value whatsoever. So to try to make it sound like it has worth, its pushers have to cast about for anything they can and finally come upon the only thing they can - the dollar. In fact, they say, it's even better than the dollar. It w…

I'm pretty high on crypto; my full-time job is writing and auditing smart contracts on Ethereum. Which message board do you recommend for me?

If there's any overload of work, I would definitely be interested to talk with you.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#43

Post by yamaneko »

jonnathanson wrote: post #23

Respectfully, I think a lot of comments on this topic are missing the point of the author's advice. Whether there is or is not a bubble, and if there is, how big that bubble might get, are irrelevant here. That's not what this article is about. First, the author assumes there is a bubble brewing. That's not his thesis; that's his background assumption. His thesis is that, assuming there is a bubble , you should do X,…

One of his advices is:

> 2. Beware vanity metrics

Can we tell if BitCoin and other cryptocurrencies has any vanity metrics? If so, what would that be?

My uneducated guess would be how valuable the currency is in Dollars. The currency seems virtually inflated as we don't know how much of that would translate to real purchasing power. It doesn't seem that it would be possible to many people to sell it all out. Thus, who invested in it would be supposed to keep using within the coin's network, and given that a transaction takes awhile and there are not many shops accepting it, it would be hard to get some return.

In addition, BitCoin has fluctuated a lot since 2012 and there were several issues in its way, like the lead maintainer stepping out, capacity limit being reached because of block chain monopoly, Mt Gox bankruptcy etc.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#44

Post by gnarcoregrizz »

Ologn wrote: post #17

The difference is the dot-com stocks had some theoretical value - even Pets.com, people buy pet supplies online after all. Unlike commodities, equities and so forth, cryptocoins have no value whatsoever. So to try to make it sound like it has worth, its pushers have to cast about for anything they can and finally come upon the only thing they can - the dollar. In fact, they say, it's even better than the dollar. It w…

Uneducated poor kids? The ironic thing is a lot of people have become rich from /biz and are now millionaires. Seems like your version of hard work is to pay out the nose for a degree to be a debt serf in this stagnant, corrupt economy... suddenly buying into this crypto meme sounds like a much better alternative. Once again, 4chan is prescient. Sure things will probably return to earth soon and some crypto-memers will be holding some heavy bags, but in the long term I think this hype has created some real value, and cryptocurrencies may end up being a real way out of the fiat scam

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#46

Post by learc83 »

If governments start to actually fear that their monopoly on creating currency is in danger, they will destroy crypto currency.

Bitcoin may be decentralized, but they can go after currency converters. They can make holding it illegal. They can make mining it illegal. They can make trading it illegal.

They can manipulate the market to crash the value of bitcoin with (to them) pocket change.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#48

Post by coolspot »

chamza wrote: post #7

Internet companies during the dotcom bubble had market value of several trillion dollars. The total market cap of crypto-currency is still only ~$70 billion. I agree with the principle, but this boom is still pretty modest.

I think it is not absolute value what defines a bubble. It should be relative. E.g. perceived value of an asset compared to it's real value/revenue/growth.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#49

Post by panzer_wyrm »

Entangled wrote: post #34

I will make a prediction so I can come back and make fun of myself in a month. It is a bubble and it will pop real soon going down back to $500 bringing down all the alts with it, then it will slowly go up again at a normal pace for the next couple of years.

Soo just the way it did three times already at different levels.

Re: Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

#50

Post by omarchowdhury »

chamza wrote: post #7

Internet companies during the dotcom bubble had market value of several trillion dollars. The total market cap of crypto-currency is still only ~$70 billion. I agree with the principle, but this boom is still pretty modest.

BTC bubbling to several trillion dollars would mean replacement of fiat, and then one would ask if it is now a bubble or a replacement (ascension?).
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