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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#41

Post by mtgx »

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

And that's before you mention that he left UK with the most mass surveillance-friendly laws of the western world [1], that would've likely been declared invalid under EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights. There May also played a big role in that. And let's not forget about the "porn filter" that includes much more than just porn, and it will soon become mandatory [2].

Cameron also helped Saudi Arabia [3] become the head of UN's human rights council, and who knows what other kind of corrupt deals he made with China. Cameron was really "looking up" to the leaders in China and how they're doing things there, so to me it didn't come as a surprise that he would try to turn UK into West's China (from a surveillance/censorship point of view).

[1] http://europe.newsweek.com/ip-bill-most-extreme-surveillance...

[2] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/01/26/porn-blocki...

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-and-saudi-arabia-ma...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#43

Post by planetjones »

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currency will be a central issue (if anybody other than the SNP can be bothered to campaign - the Westminster Government will have their hands full with brexit negotiations, so I doubt Scotland's independence will be top of their agenda)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#44

Post by dijit »

I am Scottish from birth- I spent nearly my entire life living in the middle of England.

The English are very angry about this and are touting Sturgeon as a crying "remoaner". They believe that they had a referrendum recently and therefore it's just "keep trying until you get the result you wanted".

If you're a person with that in mind I have a few things to say:

1) the UK being a member of the EU was something sorely needed, but people consider it a trade union deal and not anything else. Therefore they use the argument that the EU has changed enough to warrant leaving.

2) Scotland largely voted remain last time because it was immediately evident that the EU would not allow Scotland to join- since Spain and the remaining UK was in strong favour of vetoing entry. This has fundamentally changed.

3) Now Scotland will not remain in the EU despite voting overwhelmingly to remain. Leaving the EU now would be the antithesis of "the will of the people".. so you can't say that "they voted, get over it".

I'm rather sour on the whole experience regarding Brexit, there has been a _lot_ of smug mudslinging from the leave side, and they've already tried to scapegoat the remain campaign as being "not with the program" and subsequently sabotaging the leave campaign.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#45

Post by Normal_gaussian »

biofox wrote: post #37
pjc50 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

On the point of internal colonialism: it might have been true once, but certainly not true today. All of the countries in the union have seats in Westminster, dedicate ministers and committees, as well as their own devolved parliaments. I'd say things are much worse for counties in the North of England, than for the other countries in the UK. The nature of democracy means the majority rules, which will always be prob…

I grew up in the north of England, Cumbria to be exact. My extended family are all in the north of Scotland.

There is no doubt in my mind that the loser in all of this is the north of England. They are repeatedly denied a voice, publicly scorned, and they see all their talent move south or abroad. England is a lopsided country and I don't know how to fix it.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#46

Post by aetherson »

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#47

Post by pjc50 »

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely.

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden are the members of the EU which have not joined the Euro because they don't meet the convergence criteria.

(My personal preference is to ditch the silly "shared" pound idea but define a Scottish Pound pegged to the GBP and using the existing notes as a transitional currency. Much as Ireland did.)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#48

Post by philipov »

biofox wrote: post #37
pjc50 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

On the point of internal colonialism: it might have been true once, but certainly not true today. All of the countries in the union have seats in Westminster, dedicate ministers and committees, as well as their own devolved parliaments. I'd say things are much worse for counties in the North of England, than for the other countries in the UK. The nature of democracy means the majority rules, which will always be prob…

The 200 year-old idea that democracy means majority rules is rather naive. Naive in the sense that it assumes a simplistic model of political dynamics where every voter is an independent agent, and this assumption has not stood up well to history. The impact of political movements and demogogues, as well as economic coercion of the working classes, has shown that it is in fact possible for a democracy to be controlled by minority interests. It turns out that most people are vulnerable to the influence of thought leaders with their own agenda, can be manipulated to act against their interests, and so it can not be said that the majority of voters exercise political agency.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#49

Post by Jonnax »

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

I'm presuming to the public the currency debate will be fought by politicians on more of an emotional level for example romanticising the Pound.

On the other side graphs of the Pound dropping in value after the referendum results is also quite powerful especially if the SNP frame it as leaving a sinking ship.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#50

Post by edblarney »

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed."

Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest.

The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years.

An 'independent Scotland from an independent UK' is a huge pile of risk for people to stomach.

With the UK faring economically well since Brexit (I know A50 has not been triggered, but investors have already priced in what they know, and A50 is a sure thing) - this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted.

I would also point out that these things can fatigue on people, and that after a while, even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists.

The SNP said the last referendum was a "once in a lifetime" event - and that was 4 years ago. 'The situation has changed' - surely - but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it.

It will be very interesting though.

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