Why Diaspora will fail • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#41

Post by GrandMasterBirt » Fri, May 21, 2010, 4:55 PM UTC

cubes wrote: post #17

The reasoning in this article is pretty specious and circular. Some of the author's arguments can be summed up as: * Diaspora will fail because it sounds similar to something someone else tried one time that failed. * Nobody will use Diaspora because it will fail. * Diaspora will fail because nobody will use it. * Nobody will use Diaspora because it will never ship. * Nobody will want to pay for Diaspora because nobo…

1) It will only succeed if it integrates into shit like facebook. (as in can pull friends from there)

2) It will only succeed if setting it up is only a tiny bit more difficult than facebook.

3) It will only succeed if a hosting service provides basic plans for say 300M of storage of an automatically set-up account. The idea is its as easy as facebook BUT you own an encrypted account instance which can't be used by the hosting service. The service makes money by people investing 1-10 bucks a month for their super awesome more space service.

I cannot imagine it ever succeeding if these conditions are not met. (1) is an uphill battle, (2) possible, (3) idk what the cost possibility is.

Maybe 1 is not so bad, but when FB started MySpace was not the size of facebook today, and it was sort-of crap. Will people be willing to just leave facebook and their friends and stuff to go to this new service? Its like why people still use AIM today. AIM protocol ain't great, but if your friends are on there, you can't use google talk, because everyone you know is not there.

But yea the article is all about "kids cant succeed" and circular arguments.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#42

Post by ErrantX » Fri, May 21, 2010, 4:56 PM UTC

I too think Diaspora will fail (got a blog post in the works with more specific reasoning) but I think this is a little too pessimistic.

Sure they've got a lot of money; which is not a good thing really. Sure their plan (as much as we have seen of it so far) has serious hurdles to overcome.

Im pretty sure that it won't be the solution everyone is looking for.

But we should let them give it a shot. Hell if they had come to me asking for $10K I'd have given it to them and let them at least try.

There is technical merit in the idea. It is going to raise the profile of privacy in general and moving away from FB in particular. And at the end there will be things to take away and work with.

It might even fluke out and take off - wierder things have happened.

We can criticise now, but lets not judge.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#43

Post by Ionic_Walrus » Fri, May 21, 2010, 4:57 PM UTC

the article has no merit, younger people get the technology and are open to try it out.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#44

Post by dlnovell » Fri, May 21, 2010, 4:57 PM UTC

Sorry if this has already been commented on - how in the hell can anyone insist that "no one will want to setup their own seed because it will be too difficult"? It hasn't been developed yet so how does anyone know what setup will be required? What if they figure out how to automate configuration?

Maybe I'm missing something, but bittorrent is wildly popular, typically requires little to no configuration, and acts a "seed" (node) in a distributed network. I don't understand why the prevailing assumption is that diaspora will necessarily require some complicated configuration that is beyond the capabilities of your average, competent computer user.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#45

Post by ErrantX » Fri, May 21, 2010, 4:59 PM UTC

dlnovell wrote: post #44

Sorry if this has already been commented on - how in the hell can anyone insist that "no one will want to setup their own seed because it will be too difficult"? It hasn't been developed yet so how does anyone know what setup will be required? What if they figure out how to automate configuration? Maybe I'm missing something, but bittorrent is wildly popular, typically requires little to no configuration, and acts a…

By "no one" we generally mean "the vast majority". As tech-able people we make up a small minority of social network users - many many people struggle with aspects of Facebook. Setting up a Diaspora seed (while possibly not beyond them to learn!) is an immediate turn off :)

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#46

Post by arbitraryperson » Fri, May 21, 2010, 5:05 PM UTC

cubes wrote: post #28

grellas wrote: post #23

I don't know about the merits of or prospects for Diaspora one way or the other but I have dealt with founders of every stripe for years and understand how people can get carried where money is involved. If a nascent founder group raised $170K from hundreds or thousands of small and unsophisticated investors by traditional means (i.e., by offering them stock in the company in exchange for their small investments), an…

While you raise a legitimate point, I think you discount the basic fact that, on balance, most individuals behave in a trustworthy manner. Society depends on this fact. We trust people to drive cars, and not intentionally run people down. Stores trust that most individuals will not shoplift. Will there eventually be a large scale case of someone untrustworthy duping people via crowdsourcing? Probably. Does that mean…

We don't just "trust" anyone to drive a car properly nor do we trust that people will not shoplift. There are laws in effect that intend to prevent underaged people from driving without consequence (as well as anyone who has demonstrated they can't be trusted to drive properly in the past). And stores often use some sort of system to detect when people walk away with things they did not purchase.

I agree that on a certain level, we operate in a way where we assume people are trustworthy. As far as I know, there are no strict laws on how bank queues work, and there probably don't need to be.

But crowdsourcing? I see it as having plenty of problems, and I can't agree that we just trust people or corporations to accept what is more of an investment under the guise of a donation in a responsible manner. They need to be held accountable for the money they accept.

On the other hand, I feel little sympathy for people who throw their money at projects like this. I wouldn't invest in a flying car if it was just an idea presented to me with no working progress.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#47

Post by cubes » Fri, May 21, 2010, 5:07 PM UTC

GrandMasterBirt wrote: post #33

cubes wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While you raise a legitimate point, I think you discount the basic fact that, on balance, most individuals behave in a trustworthy manner. Society depends on this fact. We trust people to drive cars, and not intentionally run people down. Stores trust that most individuals will not shoplift. Will there eventually be a large scale case of someone untrustworthy duping people via crowdsourcing? Probably. Does that mean…

It only takes one guy to play on that and steal millions. Yes not millions at a time, but pitch 20 ideas as different aliases and have 200k investments in each. Its not hard to appeal to desperation and mass fear.

The average Kickstarter is not pulling down anywhere near 200k, and it would take a remarkably clever con to pull off what you propose. Why would a clever con target Kickstarter, something that is trivially traceable? Also, why target a large group of smart, motivated individuals who know quite a bit about how to track people down on the internet?

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#48

Post by cubes » Fri, May 21, 2010, 5:11 PM UTC

GrandMasterBirt wrote: post #41

cubes wrote: post #17

The reasoning in this article is pretty specious and circular. Some of the author's arguments can be summed up as: * Diaspora will fail because it sounds similar to something someone else tried one time that failed. * Nobody will use Diaspora because it will fail. * Diaspora will fail because nobody will use it. * Nobody will use Diaspora because it will never ship. * Nobody will want to pay for Diaspora because nobo…

1) It will only succeed if it integrates into shit like facebook. (as in can pull friends from there) 2) It will only succeed if setting it up is only a tiny bit more difficult than facebook. 3) It will only succeed if a hosting service provides basic plans for say 300M of storage of an automatically set-up account. The idea is its as easy as facebook BUT you own an encrypted account instance which can't be used by t…

Facebook did not integrate in to MySpace, and managed to unseat it. I agree that ease of use is key, and this is what has crippled cypherpunk projects in the past; it's why STARTTLS protects so much email, and PGP protects so little. Also, most people using IM service today use Adium or Pidgin, which supports multiple networks.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#49

Post by blhack » Fri, May 21, 2010, 5:14 PM UTC

I'm sorry, but why are people even talking about this thing? It's...nothing.

Hey, guys, I'm going to start a new social networking site and it's going to, uhh...solve all the problems that facebook has! I'll call it "beehive". (Oh, wait, that might actually make sense)

Me and my "team" are going to pose around for a bunch of hip shots of us sitting around and being hip.

Sorry, I don't mean to sound so harsh, I just don't get it with all this buzz over this non-project.

Re: Why Diaspora will fail

#50

Post by misuba » Fri, May 21, 2010, 5:16 PM UTC

Where did people get the idea that you'll have to set up your own seed? Most people can't install WordPress either; hence WordPress.com and a viable open-source business model.