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Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

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Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#41

Random question, automation is inevitable without major changes to the current political/economic system (like BIG), but is one possible development is as the price of labor and setting up machines decrease, a larger number of plants/mines/drills could be opened, is this a possible development? If such a development were to occur, of course, I personally would be in favor of environmentally conscious regulations.

I don't know much about this industry --as in I know nothing, but I think some of the costly parts are "exploration rights" as well as regulatory hurdles and costs. If you own some land with mineral rights, then you can do some of this but if you don't have land then obtaining that land and getting permission to explore is not a trivial task, I think.

I see, so the regulatory hurdles to even get started are more of an expense than labor and equipment?

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#42
post #21
post #15

Informative article, but a picture is worth a thousand words. While I appreciate the picture of a drill ship in the ocean, it would have been more informative to see a single picture of one of these robots. I guess since the focus of the article was the effect on related labor and not on the technology itself, a picture was deemed irrelevant. But when the title leads with 'Robots...' I want to see a picture of a robo…

I think that it's not really "robots" (it's click-bait) but rather greater automation of new platforms and ships, e.g. more networked sensors instead of analog gauges, servo-controlled valves etc. Also possibly robotic drill pipe handling (i.e. a purpose-built mechanism http://www.drillingcontractor.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09... ) Maybe an underwater drone or two for inspection instead of using divers.

Thanks for the image. I coach a First Tech Challenge robotics team and seeing all the different configurations for robots doing automatable tasks gives me ideas that I can present to the team when they have to come up with designs to solve problems.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#43
post #35
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

Please do consider reading the entirety of Ian M Banks's Culture Series. It is some fantastic Scifi that literally explores humanity in a post resource scarcity world.

If anything, it seems to me like IMB doesn't even begin to scratch the surface in imagining the true impact of ASI.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#44
post #35
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

Please do consider reading the entirety of Ian M Banks's Culture Series. It is some fantastic Scifi that literally explores humanity in a post resource scarcity world.

Is it true post-scarcity like everyone has their own mostly automated Starship Enterprise / Battlestar / Star Destroyer?

I always get kind of agitated at the notion of post resource scarcity because if you took someone from 1000 years ago and dropped them into today they'd be amazed at how much everyone has. If everyone had 11th century desires but 21st century technology we'd be there. But we're definitely not. I sincerely doubt we ever will be.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#45
post #15

Informative article, but a picture is worth a thousand words. While I appreciate the picture of a drill ship in the ocean, it would have been more informative to see a single picture of one of these robots. I guess since the focus of the article was the effect on related labor and not on the technology itself, a picture was deemed irrelevant. But when the title leads with 'Robots...' I want to see a picture of a robo…

You piqued my interest and I'm less lazy. This seems to be the sales pitch for an unautomated version that seems to give a good feel for what's going on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBPiszqZnz4 This looks to be one of the more automated versions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D4F3Vo4nzM And this one of the more manual processes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqLALzUft8Y

Thank you MM for picking up the slack :). I was merely venting on a pet peeve of mine.

Very informative videos.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#46
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do consider reading the entirety of Ian M Banks's Culture Series. It is some fantastic Scifi that literally explores humanity in a post resource scarcity world.

Is it true post-scarcity like everyone has their own mostly automated Starship Enterprise / Battlestar / Star Destroyer? I always get kind of agitated at the notion of post resource scarcity because if you took someone from 1000 years ago and dropped them into today they'd be amazed at how much everyone has. If everyone had 11th century desires but 21st century technology we'd be there. But we're definitely not. I si…

It's a battle between supply and demand. Or, to put it in more blunt terms, between production and greed.

We always seem to want more "stuff" for some reason. Without some changes in the way we think and feel, we may never reach true post-scarcity.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#47
post #30

3 Years and half the workers: "Rigs have gotten so much more efficient that the shale industry can use about half as many as it did at the height of the boom in 2014 to suck the same amount of oil out of the ground." I'm more familiar with mining and it's fairly amazing the productivity improvements that went into that, those jobs are never coming back.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

Only if you infer the zero-sum labor fallacy. The demand for labor isn't fixed, and is influenced by the supply.

These specific jobs are not economically feasible, but that opens up labor demand for new, sometimes hard to imagine jobs.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#48
post #30

3 Years and half the workers: "Rigs have gotten so much more efficient that the shale industry can use about half as many as it did at the height of the boom in 2014 to suck the same amount of oil out of the ground." I'm more familiar with mining and it's fairly amazing the productivity improvements that went into that, those jobs are never coming back.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

I have tons of lab work you can do for me if you want to get your hands dirty, your pants wet, and your skin dyed for weeks. Desk job versus hands on both have pros and cons. Luckily I'm half/half each so it makes both good and both bad.

There is plenty of science and engineering jobs tat let you do both.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#49
post #35
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

Please do consider reading the entirety of Ian M Banks's Culture Series. It is some fantastic Scifi that literally explores humanity in a post resource scarcity world.

Reading Consider Phlebas now. I've heard it's the weakest book in the series, but I'm loving it thus far!

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#50
post #22
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Often overlooked is the type of mistake, which it seems you are touching on with "poorer responses to emergencies". If humans make 10 mistakes over a time period compared to 1 for the automated system, it might look as if the humans are worse, but if the cost of the human mistakes averages to 5 for some theoretical cost scale (so 50 overall), but the automated mistake costs 100 because there isn't a good dynamic resp…

It only takes one human mistake that is 1000 to destroy all that. Many systems in oil refineries are automated because humans didn't want to shut the plant down where there was some trouble. Even when the problem is a predictable humans often refused to admit it they couldn't operate as is. (We know this pump is failing, the replacement won't arrive for 2 months though so we are going to continue as long as we can -…

> It only takes one human mistake that is 1000 to destroy all that.

And it only takes one machine mistake that's 10000 to reverse it again. What it comes down to is that until every mistake that can happen is known and accounted for, a human somewhere in the process will allow for better reasoning about any possible mistakes. Human errors are more likely, but they are fairly well understood and you can safeguard yourself by putting more people higher up the stack checking things. This is well understood, we've had centuries (if not millennia, depending on how you want to qualify it) to work on the problem of reducing errors in people's work.

> Many systems in oil refineries are automated because humans didn't want to shut the plant down where there was some trouble.

That's not a problem with people, that's a problem with the structure the people are in. When keeping the operation running is prioritized over fixing problems as they are found, you get a perverse incentive structure. A good example of this is shown in the NUMMI episode[1] of This American Life. In the 1980's at the NUMMI plant, GM never wanted the assembly line stopped, so cars would go through not completely finished, and then workers would volunteer to finish them on the lot manually (for extra money), but theyse cars often had problems and were very low quality. This is contrasted with what the GM execs saw at a Toyota plant (and tries to institute), which was that any problems on the line were encouraged to stop or slow the line and managers would then go investigate and either fix problems with that station, or allocate more resources there if it wasn't sufficient. The problem you outline is not inherent to the people working, the problem is the structure they are working within. The main difference in reality is that when an automated component isn't working right, people know it (or something associated with it, such as a feeder) needs to be fixed, so they fix it. Or more appropriately, they've been trained that this is the correct course of action. The same could be true of people working, it just often wasn't.

1: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/403/...

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