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The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#41

Post by xbmcuser »

edblarney wrote: post #21
torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#42

Post by thinkingkong »

edblarney wrote: post #21
torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

What's unique now isnt the "rate of change" but the absolute gap between skill sets.

Lets say youre a truck driver and suddenly you lose your job. You cant transfer your existing skill set to driving a cab for very long because guess what? Thats been automated too.

There arent any other jobs that involve sitting at a wheel avoiding bad drivers and rush hour traffic and pulling all nighters. Simultaneously the chance for that person to find work in new markets becomes low. They have to train themselves.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#43

Post by api »

xbmcuser wrote: post #41
edblarney wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#44

Post by edblarney »

xbmcuser wrote: post #41
edblarney wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

"Where as today the global economy is stagnating."

The global economy is in good shape.

Western economies are stagnating - but there are 5 billion people who were not even on the economic radar just 50 years ago. They were earning basically 'nothing'.

But now they are earning 'something' and it's growing fast.

There are more than 40 countries with growth over 5% GDP growth in 2015. [1]

There are 5 billion people who need: electricity, clothes, cars, tv, entertainment, sports, medicine etc. etc..

So, no. As prices fall, and globalization expands - all those products and services become accessible to these countries.

And what happens when they get reliable electricity? Governance? Consistent internet access? Their productivity goes up and they can afford to buy more.

Viewed from a 'modern world perspective' - I would be concerned, we are going to have to 'find new jobs' for a lot of people - but from a global perspective, the picture is mostly positive.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#45

Post by ianai »

inimino wrote: post #33
clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?

Cutting a check sounds a lot less problematic than warlordism/etc

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#46

Post by ianai »

api wrote: post #43
xbmcuser wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."

What do you mean by "Planet Japan"?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#47

Post by whybroke »

edblarney wrote: post #21
torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

The period you describe was marked by revolutions, civil wars and world wars not stabilized until after WWII.

Things did indeed come out well eventually but that better world most definitely did not emerge serenely and rationally. It took the utter annihilation of the pre-WWI world order through decades of enormous violence. Indeed, the egalitarian socialist plan and the response of populist fascist to crush it emerged exactly because of industrialization.

There can be no doubt that displaced workers are not going to smoothly transfer to become professional athletes: a 50 year old unemployed coal miner with no social safety net is not going to peaceable become a wedding planer in a big city even if he could.

Until then, there will be increasing political disruption and radicalization as the advantaged group holds the disadvantaged down believing it's their own fault for not changing careers. And just like last time, the fighting will continue until adequate social safety nets are in place.

It would be better to honestly face the events of the past and not try to convince ourselves that an idealized smooth economic shift is how it's going to work out. But unfortunately we are just at the beginning of this and likely most people in the advantaged group will ideological despise the level of social security that will solve the problem. Indeed, in many quarters, there is a fetishization of and desire to return to that pre-WWI unconstrained economy that caused the nightmares in the 20th century. So, polarization, demagoguery, extremism and eventually violence loom for now I fear.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#48

Post by saryant »

jobu wrote: post #9

This was one of the more frustrating parts of this past election cycle: "No candidate talked much about automation on the campaign trail. Technology is not as convenient a villain as China or Mexico, there is no clear way to stop it, and many of the technology companies are in the United States and benefit the country in many ways." A lot of US jobs have been lost to globalization, but in the long-term that won't com…

Senator Ben Sasse has spoken about automation frequently.

https://twitter.com/SenSasse/status/806889568276336641

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#49

Post by the_duke »

ianai wrote: post #46
api wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."

What do you mean by "Planet Japan"?

Japan has second oldest population world-wide with 27.28% over 65, after Monaco, which doesn't really count (retirement home for rich people).

http://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01001/

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#50

Post by wojcech »

inimino wrote: post #33
clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?

People think taxes are evil but for dome reason will accept warlords?
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