Earlier quoted context omitted.
"god told me so" worked very well for thousands of years.
It certainly worked, whether or not it worked "well" is up for debate.
defacto, no debate...
CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
41–50 of 98 posts
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#42I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…
Probably they can detect uprising in Germany...
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
Uprisings are nothing but a reaction to an unhealthy situation. Terrorism boils down to that same problem. Yet, we never seem to be too interested in understanding and resolving the issues we have created which led to these reactions.
Which do you think guarantees an intelligence agency more funding? My feeling is that there is some conflict of interest here when it comes to fixing societies' woes and people who manufacture tear gas and drones. A lot of money to be made in keeping the status quo, what do you get from fixing the world?
Nothing new here :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket
But go and download that new social app, citizen. It has new stickers.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#44Welcome to Psychohistory. Thanks Hari.
My thoughts exactly. This is no Minority Report. Thanks Isaac!
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's the CIA, there is a high chance that they are spending more money to fuel the revolution.
Well, that's one way of knowing when uprisings will happen. Deming wrote that if you have a policy of rewarding people for fighting fires, you also need to watch who is setting those fires.
The cobra effect is a great example of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#46In my limited experience, I feel like the CIA has a lot of room for improvement. Reminds me of this- http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/21/world/director-admits-cia-... There's the problem of guys like Michael Morrell, who have no operational experience but go on Charlie Rose and advocate murdering Russian and Syrian officials. Not that I disagree but why publicly talk about it? Morrell's an economist. The agency being r…
>"run by political bureaucrats I suppose is inevitable but it's unfortunate."
So if it is unfortunate, what classification of people, in your opinion, should be running it?
What a weird comment you have posted... You love the CIA? are you a sadist?
I am serious about that question, as while I agree that all states need their intelligence services - the CIA has done some downright EVIL shit. And if you "love the CIA" and are unfamiliar with their history, then you're a fucking moron.
Now, its not to say that the US needs to, in their own best interest, remain as a world super-power... and we shall -- but its to focus on the fact that we can do so in a better fashion.
I take the words "I love the CIA" to mean that you're either a sadist, a child of an op, or young and stupid, and by stupid - I just mean not critically thinking about what you have said/what your understanding of the CIA has done/is.
Again, The US will be the predominant power in the world for the foreseeable future, but have some humanity -- something the actions of the CIA fucking lack.
And if you love the CIA so much, you'll realize that they own this country, and that is not necessarily a good thing, you sound naive.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Backcasting is a fairly standard testing method, though you've got to be careful about overfitting. I need to RTFA, but this sounds like it might have relations to Peter Turchin's work on cliodynamics.
RTFA won't do you much good. It's pretty light on detail. (IMO) It spends most of its time meandering about and trying to sound like some sort of really mind-blowing techno shaman. So much so, that I doubt the authenticity and accuracy of the information that presented. I felt like it read a little more like a paranoid fringe article. I mean "Siren" in this case is named for the seductive nature of the power of the s…
Dangers coming from usage of systems like this by a private corporation is not a cliche. It is a real danger.
If it has not clicked for you then advertising network is a behaviour control mechanism.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#48Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
So who gets that money? You support democracy in China and the Communists start an uprising. You support Communists and the other side starts an uprising; someone is always pissed off -- it isn't "government" vs. "the people." It's vastly more complex. Rarely are there two sides -- more like 200. Intelligence is a wilderness of mirrors as James Angleton had said. You could say "end the CIA" but that's sticking one's…
Dowwie didn't say anything about "redistributing money".
> as long as there are people, there are going to be bad people and groups
Proper education reduces the numbers of "bad" people.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Stay off the wires (including finance), and it's very hard for them to see much of anything. NGOs. [yet again with silent (dumb?) downvotes in the same comment chain that mentions "network effects".]
Maybe elaborate on what you mean? The single acronym in your reply doesn't actually expound a point of view.
NGO is very commonly understood to mean Non-Govermental Organizations.
OP proposes that staying "off wires" is a remedy. Simple point made is that intelligence agencies have recourse to wide ranging sensory networks, including NGOs (whether complicit or simply surveilled.)
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#50I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…
A more effective strategy to constant surveillance is to simply raise the background level to just below actionable threshold, so that way their intelligence is effectively useless. That is, really, you should just sit around all day and talk about how you dislike what they're doing, think they're career criminals betraying the nation, that you want to actively do something about it, etc. Bonus points for mixing that conversation with discussion about how you'd like to tour DC and see the various monuments, including the Washington monument, Lincoln memorial, and WWII memorial.
If the background unhappy chatter is close to actionable (or is in the mind of the classifying algorithms), then actionable chatter (eg, actually planning an attack) can only be distinguished from background chatter near when the plans become "active" in some sense, and likely too late to meaningfully respond to. (To use a physics analogy: if you try to predict cavitation in flowing water really close to boiling, it's harder.)
In many senses, simply embracing openly that we're very angry as a society, even in the face of constant scrutiny, prevents that same constant scrutiny from determining when we're planning something. It can only really tell that we're pissed off, in general.