How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump • Hacker News Board

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#41

Post by tonyedgecombe » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:23 AM UTC

anexprogrammer wrote: post #33

jamespo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can look more recently than that, the failed austerity experiment contributed to these conditions

Both really. For places like Middlesborough or Burnley they're a shadow of their former 80s selves. Austerity there is just a case of rubbing salt into the still open wound.

Early in my career I regularly visited towns like Middlesborough and Burnley, installing IT systems. There was a lot of unskilled and semi-skilled work available at those businesses that has either been shipped out to China or automated away.

Those jobs aren't coming back, whether we are in the EU or not.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#42

Post by majewsky » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:24 AM UTC

caconym_ wrote: post #20

I may be reading this too late at night, but the theory seems to be that our benevolent, perfectly logical Ivy League-educated overlords regrettably have to break a few eggs to make a delicious omelette of economic prosperity for all, and those broken eggs are enough to make people throw up their hands and vote for Trump/Brexit/whatever just for a chance to cling to the present, the good old days, at the expense of t…

Indeed. I can understand that a lot of economic policies can be viewed in the way the author describes (a relentless pursuit of efficiency), but Ivy League overlords are also doing a lot of stuff that's just plain greed and can't be explained away with efficiency.

For example high-frequency trading. Or (here in Germany) renting ruinous hotels to the government as refugee centers at bizarre rates because there was literally no other big-enough accommodation available.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#43

Post by tonyedgecombe » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:27 AM UTC

flukus wrote: post #17

jwblackwell wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

London largely voted remain so not really. However I think youth are rightly frustrated about London prices

40% of London voted to leave, that's enough to change the outcome. I don't think pretending there is a huge geographical divide is particularly helpful.

If you ignore the protests of some regions how can you address their problems (real or perceived).

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#44

Post by majewsky » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:30 AM UTC

dingaling wrote: post #29

s_kilk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely. If you look at the age breakdown of the vote, millenials and other assorted youngsters voted overwhelmingly for "Remain", while the older cohort voted for "Leave".

> If you look at the age breakdown of the vote That's not the breakdown of the vote but of exit polls and other opt-in polling such as YouGov surveys. Both of which are biased towards those (1) likely to contribute and (2) not concerned about sharing how they voted. The actual demographic composition of the vote is unknown, it could be determined ( all UK ballot papers are linked to their voter ) but that would be un…

> (2) not concerned about sharing how they voted

Are exit polls not anonymized in the UK? At the last federal election in Germany, I was asked to contribute in an exit poll, and they had their own voting booth and urn set up for that purpose next to the actual voting room.

The ballot was mostly identical, except for additional checkboxes for age group and gender, which they wanted to break down in their analyses. So still reasonably anonymized.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#45

Post by iaskwhy » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:30 AM UTC

flukus wrote: post #17

jwblackwell wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

London largely voted remain so not really. However I think youth are rightly frustrated about London prices

40% of London voted to leave, that's enough to change the outcome. I don't think pretending there is a huge geographical divide is particularly helpful.

It might not be helpful but it's not pretending, there was a huge geographical divide: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

- Some councils in London, Edinburgh, some Belfast, voted ~75% remain; - Some eastern England ares voted ~25% remain.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#46

Post by simonh » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:32 AM UTC

throwaway13337 wrote: post #23

smikhanov wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Becoming a global money laundering hub like London is a wet dream of every major city on this planet. Plus, as the commenter below mentions, London mostly voted remain.

It may be the dream of owners of property in London but not those that rent there.

If you work in London at all, you get trickle down from the financial services sector. People who work in finance drink in your coffee shop, eat in your restaurant, ride in your bus or taxi, buy things in your shop.

Look at what happened in 2008. Finance caught a cold and the entire global economy including Britain fell flat on it's back. Brexit has the potential to do far more damage over a much longer period of time, but mostly just to Britain. The knock on effect across the country isn't going to be pretty. But hey, if the rest of Britain decides they'd rather like to have a long drawn out recession just in order to stick it to the bankers then fine.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#47

Post by objectivistbrit » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:32 AM UTC

I'm pro-economic liberty and voted for Brexit. Every analysis like this has tunnel vision: yes, the free trade opened up by the EU brought prosperity to an entire continent. Had we been voting for the 1970s era EEC, I'd have gladly voted Remain.

But in 40 years the EEC has evolved into the EU, with a constitution, a parliament, a president, a national anthem, a flag, supreme law-making powers and a currency.

Maybe the Merckel anti-integration faction will remain dominant and they'll stop there. Given the Juncker faction pushes further integration as the solution to every crisis, and given the EU is in constant crisis, the next 10 years should be interesting.

The EU is a world-historical experiment in social democracy - free markets + state regulation + the welfare state. The consensus is that this system represents the current pinnacle of political evolution. (Both 'progressive' Scandinavia and 'capitalist' America implement variants of it). An alternative perspective is that it's simply a compromise system which emerged after WWII and is already showing severe cracks.

Maybe the EU will create prosperity by such actions as forcing Google to break up, throwing state money at impoverished regions, etc. Maybe the populations of France, Spain, Italy et al will accept that they can't fund welfare states by borrowing in perpetuity and stop voting in radical left-wing governments. Maybe they'll find an alternative solution to the ever growing debt-burden, over Piketty's proposal for seizing 15% of all bank accounts. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_long-term_solutions...

I have no idea. I would like to see pro-EU articles which actually address these issues, and not simply assume that the only reason to be against the EU is that you're an ignorant racist, deluded by propaganda and lies.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#48

Post by gpvos » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:33 AM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #42

caconym_ wrote: post #20

I may be reading this too late at night, but the theory seems to be that our benevolent, perfectly logical Ivy League-educated overlords regrettably have to break a few eggs to make a delicious omelette of economic prosperity for all, and those broken eggs are enough to make people throw up their hands and vote for Trump/Brexit/whatever just for a chance to cling to the present, the good old days, at the expense of t…

Indeed. I can understand that a lot of economic policies can be viewed in the way the author describes (a relentless pursuit of efficiency), but Ivy League overlords are also doing a lot of stuff that's just plain greed and can't be explained away with efficiency. For example high-frequency trading. Or (here in Germany) renting ruinous hotels to the government as refugee centers at bizarre rates because there was lit…

High-frequency trading is usually justified by pointing at increased market fluidity, which is a positive thing in principle. Whether that is enough justification for the problems it causes is clearly something that should be discussed more.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#49

Post by monk_e_boy » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:35 AM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #41

anexprogrammer wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both really. For places like Middlesborough or Burnley they're a shadow of their former 80s selves. Austerity there is just a case of rubbing salt into the still open wound.

Early in my career I regularly visited towns like Middlesborough and Burnley, installing IT systems. There was a lot of unskilled and semi-skilled work available at those businesses that has either been shipped out to China or automated away. Those jobs aren't coming back, whether we are in the EU or not.

This is it exactly. Staying (and therefore nothing changing) was a really bad option for millions of people.

Brexit was change. And maybe, just maybe it would be a change for good. Staying and project fear did not offer hope.

Re: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving ‘Brexit’ and Trump

#50

Post by reddytowns » Mon, Jul 18, 2016, 9:37 AM UTC

rahimnathwani wrote: post #11

cmarschner wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For economists, efficiency is simply that goods should be created where the surroundings are best suited for it - first described by David Ricardo in the 19th century. E.g. Cotton should be planted where there is the most fertile soil etc. This works best in a globalized economy where production can move around freely and where there are no trade restrictions. As a result, productivity is higher, meaning that goods a…

"Cotton should be planted where there is the most fertile soil etc." Nitpick: this statement is about absolute advantage, whereas Ricardo emphasised comparative advantage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage#Ricardo.... Imagine that you're better than me at everything (both programming and needlework). You can program three times as fast, and sew twice as fast as I can. Does that mean you should do al…

Yes, but at a certain threshold that is no longer true due to logistics. For instance, I could try to sell back all the plastic bags I got at the grocery store, and even if I folded them flat, made sure they were clean and ready to reuse, no matter the price, the grocery store owner would with all likelihood refuse to buy them from me.

Because, regardless of how much money would be saved from buying my bags over the ones fresh from the factory, it wouldn't be able to cover the logistical cost to the company's workflow.