Is Hyperloop the future of travel? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#41

Post by pnut » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:20 PM UTC

My answer to the question, is 'NO'.

I love trains, and use them whenever possible.

However, with static start and endpoints, and existing low-cost air infrastructure that is dynamically reroutable and equivalently fast, why spend the hundreds of billions of dollars to recreate something so fragile and limited?

Municipalities are wisely, generally in a 'wait and see' phase for the next decade, as autonomous personal transport guarantees to spur the redesign and redevelopment of entire cities and transportation infrastructure.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#42

Post by ck2 » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:28 PM UTC

Just imagine the TSA line for the hyperloop.

You'll have to arrive days ahead of time.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#43

Post by jerf » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:29 PM UTC

pnut wrote: post #41

My answer to the question, is 'NO'. I love trains, and use them whenever possible. However, with static start and endpoints, and existing low-cost air infrastructure that is dynamically reroutable and equivalently fast, why spend the hundreds of billions of dollars to recreate something so fragile and limited? Municipalities are wisely, generally in a 'wait and see' phase for the next decade, as autonomous personal t…

The autonomous transport you mention in the end is also an issue for Hyperloop directly. Highways are "easy mode" for autonomous cars, so automated services to move you between cities may be available substantially before they can necessarily move you within the city. Sure, they'll be a lot slower than the hyperloop, but they'll probably be a lot cheaper. Perhaps the hyperloop could win the deploy-to-production race with fully autonomous cars, but at this point, I bet it can't win the race with autonomous cross-city quasi-personal transport.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#44

Post by curun1r » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:29 PM UTC

manigandham wrote: post #39

kbenson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Air travel is already very streamlined and inexpensive for crossing big distances and has the advantage of not requiring the infrastructure and real estate that a train needs. Hyperloop is very specifically aimed at medium distance routes. SF to LA, for example, where the plane has relatively little time cruising at altitude, where it can fly efficiently. If a plane is spending most it's time flying through denser…

Efficient != cheaper. The only thing that matters is what people are willing to pay, and that's not much for medium distance. And for the billions it costs to install the track in the first place, you can buy several airlines and operate them for years.

Cheaper != better.

It's important to look at the hyperloop in the context in which it was proposed. This is California and environmental aspects need to be taken into account. Airlines are a major source of CO2 and California wants a more environmentally friendly solution. There is a proposed high-speed rail project with a $10B initial estimate that's sure to at least double by the time the project is complete. The high-speed rail project is only high-speed compared to existing rail since the max speed will be around 200 mph.

It's into this environment that Musk proposed the Hyperloop. On paper, it's better than the high-speed rail in every way. Cheaper, faster and with less pollution. The "more airplanes" alternative may be cheaper and probably faster (with the TSA is doing its best keep air travel slow) but fails horribly on the CO2 emissions front.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#45

Post by JDDunn9 » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:32 PM UTC

I think the deal breaker is the high speeds, which require a much straighter track and much larger turn radius (410ft for a train, ~4.6 mi. for HL). That means a lot of tunneling through mountains and bulldozing expensive buildings. Land is the biggest expense in these projects.

I'm more hopeful of NASA's current work trying to reduce the sonic boom on airplanes. Flying high solves the air resistance problem, and going in a straight line isn't a problem up there.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#46

Post by iamcreasy » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:41 PM UTC

JDDunn9 wrote: post #45

Related: http://quora.com/Will-Hyperloop-One’s-Hyperloop-product-work... I think the deal breaker is the high speeds, which require a much straighter track and much larger turn radius (410ft for a train, ~4.6 mi. for HL). That means a lot of tunneling through mountains and bulldozing expensive buildings. Land is the biggest expense in these projects. I'm more hopeful of NASA's current work trying to reduce the sonic…

I remember Elon Musk saying, at Hyperloop POD design weekend, Hyperloop is for short distance travel, because in short flights planes spends most of it's time in ascend or descend.

And for air travel, I think suborbital flights are definitely the future.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#47

Post by elchief » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:45 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #10

puranjay wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I checked, wasn't the project over budget and hitting close to $100Bn in costs? Honestly, even $50Bn sounds like chump change for a project as ambitious as the Hyperloop. Nearly all large scale public infrastructure projects end up costing billions of dollars over estimated costs anyway.

If you're saying that the HSR project is over budget, you're right, but you're not helping the Hyperloop argument. The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10.

Like how he's lowering the price of rocketry by 90%?

His last bid was 40% less than United Launch

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#48

Post by usrusr » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:45 PM UTC

shkkmo wrote: post #38

usrusr wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both BBC quotes are in full agreement with the document at http://spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf . Page 12, "100 Pascals", that's roughly 99.9% of the air removed. The distinction between "very low pressure" and "vacuum" that is implied by the "hyperloop is not a vactrain" camp is a fantasy.

It is pretty relevant at the speeds being discussed.

For the design of the vehicle, yes, for the design of the infrastructure, not so much. Those 100 Pa are actually much lower than what previous vactrain proposals suggested. The only difference is that hyperloop is trying to do something useful with the unavoidable trace atmosphere instead of just overcoming it.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#49

Post by bobcostas55 » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:46 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #10

puranjay wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I checked, wasn't the project over budget and hitting close to $100Bn in costs? Honestly, even $50Bn sounds like chump change for a project as ambitious as the Hyperloop. Nearly all large scale public infrastructure projects end up costing billions of dollars over estimated costs anyway.

If you're saying that the HSR project is over budget, you're right, but you're not helping the Hyperloop argument. The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10.

Isn't that exactly what SpaceX did?

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#50

Post by philwelch » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:47 PM UTC

I know Elon Musk has a lot of goodwill around here, but is no one else cynical about the notion of a smart, ambitious automobile CEO coming up with some plausible-seeming science-fictional FUD to torpedo a high speed rail project that may very well compete with his interests?