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China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

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Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#41

Post by chvid »

sharetea wrote: post #40
chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

Nope Victory for Tsai Ing-wen, head of a party promoting independence from China, will likely usher in uncertain relations between Taipei and Beijing http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/taiwan/121031... Foxconn (Taiwanese manufacturer for Apple) decision to invest a whopping $5 billion in India has caused unease in China as it marks the first top international firm opting for India amid a slowdown in the C…

Your GDP numbers are wrong. The gap is factor 2-3.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#42

Post by awl130 »

chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

>Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau.

this is not a foregone conclusion. it could in fact (and probably will) remain independent like Singapore.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#43

Post by awl130 »

china will get its way. imagine china building a military base on cuba or hispaniola and see how well that sits with the us government, un commission be damned. as china grows it wants to secure it's geographical sphere of influence, and all the western powers in the world will not win this battle. china has much more to lose and win.

protestations by the phillipines and other smaller outlying nations are again, the same as cuba or puerto rico or haiti protesting against guantanamo bay. the bottom line is that the dominant regional power dictates the terms and the smaller guys follow. if i were a western power i would spend just a modicum of effort pushing back against china but concurrently prepare to lose this battle.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#44

Post by chvid »

awl130 wrote: post #42
chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

>Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau. this is not a foregone conclusion. it could in fact (and probably will) remain independent like Singapore.

I think it is a foregone conclusion in the Chinese communist party.

Wrt. Singapore. There is a still a bit of unconquered land between that and the mainland :-)

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#45

Post by xiaoma »

awl130 wrote: post #43

china will get its way. imagine china building a military base on cuba or hispaniola and see how well that sits with the us government, un commission be damned. as china grows it wants to secure it's geographical sphere of influence, and all the western powers in the world will not win this battle. china has much more to lose and win. protestations by the phillipines and other smaller outlying nations are again, the…

It's more likely that China will end up starting WWIII. They are claiming not only international space but also that of their neighbors.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#46

Post by xiaoma »

chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

This is one of the least informed posts I've ever seen on HN about cross strait issues.

Unlike HK or Macau, Taiwan is a fully democratic state and has been for decades. Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/12/we-are-no-compatriots-of...

The only way China could annex the island would entering a war. That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan in that case (due to the Taiwan relations act).

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#47

Post by auganov »

chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

I don't know the history of China's takeover of Macau. But in case of Hong Kong it was mostly legal and diplomatic reasons (of the UK). Taiwan is an independent democracy, it's very unlikely they'd willingly agree to that.

Personally I'd rather bet on the CCP loosing/giving-up power than Taiwan joining the Mainland. And Hong Kong could possibly be one of the triggers.

Not to mention US loosing Taiwan [and South Korea] as huge allies would be almost as bad as loosing Israel. They won't let that happen.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#48

Post by mc32 »

chvid wrote: post #38

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite. It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China: This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly. In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner simila…

China has too many nervous neighbors for any change in relationship between TW and CN to change the USs role in the SCS region. You have Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan all having disputes with China. So even if TW were to drop claims, you have quite a few restless neighbors left. Besides, Mr Ma the acquiescer is stepping down. And most young people prefer an independent identity.

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#49

Post by xiaoma »

sharetea wrote: post #24

It looks like the dictator/autocratic states in Asia (Russia/China) with its economy collapsing, is resorting to territorial aggression against neighboring countries in order to get resources and get people to look away from its collapse. China exports fall 11.2% in January, imports down 18.8% http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/china-releases-trade-data-for... . Russia's ruble collapses to lowest level, with "Inflation r…

There are several other border disputes, especially between China and India:

https://www.facebook.com/notes/tarek-fatah/chinas-border-dis...

Re: China Deploys Missiles on Disputed Island in South China Sea

#50

Post by vkou »

stevetrewick wrote: post #17
Cyph0n wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

vs. heavily lobbied Congress that makes the real decisions. I build you a factory in your home town, you say yes to these heavy arms sales. My point is that the line between democracy and autocracy is quite thin in reality.

That's on you then, elect some better ones. That thin line is the demos.

In 2014, Congress had a ~5% approval rating, and a 95% re-election rating.

"Kick the bastards out" works well in some democracies, and less well in others.

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