The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers • Hacker News Board

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#41

Post by grogenaut » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:28 AM UTC

larrymcp wrote: post #18

Well if this is a "race" as the headline says, it sure is gonna be a long race, folks. These cars haven't yet been programmed to handle things like snow-covered roads where you can't see the lines, or construction zones that have you driving on the opposite side of the road at the direction of flaggers, etc... there's just a ton of work remaining to be done if your goal is truly to "rid the world of human drivers".

do you know if they do well at seeing through heavy rain or running water on the road? Coming down from Snoqualamie resort near Seattle the snow turns to water with about a good inch over the road and the lines are invisible. Traffic suddenly becomes a negotiation from 3 lanes (actual stripes) to 2 (comfortable) and in between, mostly determined by what the trucks decide.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#42

Post by Fuzzwah » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:29 AM UTC

cpitman wrote: post #36

irln wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI driven cars achieve a superior safety record there won't be many human drivers...the insurance premiums will price most people out of the market. That is, the cost of insurance for human drivers will be exceedingly high.

I don't see why the cost would be any higher than it is today. If anything, driver-less cars would have lower insurance premiums. So if you can afford/justify your insurance today, you could still afford it in the future. I could even see all insurance getting cheaper, since the risk of accidents for all cars should decrease as the mix of cars gets more and more automated.

Insurance companies like to slice their customers up into buckets of similar risk and charge more or less accordingly.

Insuring an automated car will be cheaper. Insuring a manually operated car will be more expensive.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#43

Post by rdtsc » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:31 AM UTC

woofyman wrote: post #15

jjoonathan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people will take advantage of AI drivers, but everything will be recorded and I'm sure the autonomous car companies can figure out how to put those recordings to use. Name&shame, sell the info to insurance companies, push to make it an automatic ticket, etc. After a shakedown period a more or less reasonable compromise will surely emerge.

I don't want to live in a society where every car becomes a tool of law enforcement.

It's almost there. There are license plates readers everywhere, toll booths record your times and toll gates use.

Also note, it doesn't have to be a "government" thing, where you'd expect some protection (at least on paper). It can be a completely private affair between the car makers and insurnace companies.

In fact it is already almost there and it is called CLUE ( https://www.privacyrights.org/clue-and-you-how-insurers-size... ) -- a database used by insurance companies to evaluate indivicuals and record the claims they've made in the past. Feed info from these self-driving cars into them and you can't even claim any privacy or constitutional rights were violated.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#44

Post by AReallyGoodName » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:32 AM UTC

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #24

sanswork wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. They can do that now unless you are suggesting running them over as a solution.

You can jump out of your car and either rationally debate with them the merits of allowing access to the right-of-way, or jump directly to violent threats. The problem with autonomous cars as they are being rationalized to the public is that half the time the car will have no occupants at all. There will be nobody in the car to leap out and shake their fist.

Then either the person in the car behind will jump out and tell the idiot to move or if all the cars waiting are autonomous then they can all collectively out-wait the deranged idiot blocking traffic since they have infinite patience unlike humans.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#45

Post by grogenaut » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:34 AM UTC

euyyn wrote: post #5

caseysoftware wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe so. As driverless cars take over more and more, the weird (aka dangerous) behaviors should become less common. Many forms of distracted driving will simply vanish, not even considering the obvious issues like drunk driving. Once you start automating dispatch, I think it simplifies and improves things further. For one, you're going to be less likely to be late.. which means less stress/anxiety and less distr…

On top of that, the cars can communicate more and faster than the drivers, and can be programmed to collaborate with the other vehicles. So you can have stuff like the cars in a packed highway opening up a diagonal for a car in the left lane to take an exit on the right.

I feel that will work only okay even if there is one car manufacturer, but get tthe differences between a lot of them, then throw in porsche and others programming in "advantages" and "agressive" as options and where do you end up?

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#46

Post by cpitman » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:38 AM UTC

Fuzzwah wrote: post #42

cpitman wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why the cost would be any higher than it is today. If anything, driver-less cars would have lower insurance premiums. So if you can afford/justify your insurance today, you could still afford it in the future. I could even see all insurance getting cheaper, since the risk of accidents for all cars should decrease as the mix of cars gets more and more automated.

Insurance companies like to slice their customers up into buckets of similar risk and charge more or less accordingly. Insuring an automated car will be cheaper. Insuring a manually operated car will be more expensive.

Sure, it will be more expensive than the automated car. But why would it be more expensive than today? Why would automated cars on the road make manually operated cars more risky than they are today?

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#47

Post by grogenaut » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:38 AM UTC

Sorry for typos, eating fried chicken...

I cant wait to see what happens once the modders and criminals get a hold of self driving cars. My awesome car would pretend to be an emergency vehicle. Pretend to be a truck and that it can't stop easily, pretend emergencies so people move, claim that it's chaging lanes to mess with people. Without a centralized authority it's just negotiation. With a CA then humans and remote locations will have issues.

It's going to be a great dystopian future.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#48

Post by Retra » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:42 AM UTC

grogenaut wrote: post #45

euyyn wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of that, the cars can communicate more and faster than the drivers, and can be programmed to collaborate with the other vehicles. So you can have stuff like the cars in a packed highway opening up a diagonal for a car in the left lane to take an exit on the right.

I feel that will work only okay even if there is one car manufacturer, but get tthe differences between a lot of them, then throw in porsche and others programming in "advantages" and "agressive" as options and where do you end up?

Somebody trying to develop a standardized AI road etiquette protocol?

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#49

Post by grogenaut » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 4:52 AM UTC

Retra wrote: post #48

grogenaut wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that will work only okay even if there is one car manufacturer, but get tthe differences between a lot of them, then throw in porsche and others programming in "advantages" and "agressive" as options and where do you end up?

Somebody trying to develop a standardized AI road etiquette protocol?

I'm just thinking about the level of coordination required and then you get into timings, and other issues where one car may respond slightly slower. I think stuff like this makes it way harder than people think. And that's without any bad or just not altruistic actors there. Think if the "Sport" package on your BMW was code for "talks the other cars into letting it go first.

With peoples car, the person with the complete clunker wins that race as they obviously don't care if they hit you and don't have the money to pay you back. BMW has to back off.

With software it's down to the negotiating powers of the cars software.

We've seen how well that works in trading, no one ever games the laws slightly for their own advantage.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#50

Post by irln » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 5:03 AM UTC

cpitman wrote: post #36

irln wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI driven cars achieve a superior safety record there won't be many human drivers...the insurance premiums will price most people out of the market. That is, the cost of insurance for human drivers will be exceedingly high.

I don't see why the cost would be any higher than it is today. If anything, driver-less cars would have lower insurance premiums. So if you can afford/justify your insurance today, you could still afford it in the future. I could even see all insurance getting cheaper, since the risk of accidents for all cars should decrease as the mix of cars gets more and more automated.

I don't think that those that choose to drive would provide more risk than they do today, however, they would provide (my gut and no more) substantially more risk than driverless cars. What incentive would an insurance provider have to insure a human driver? Much higher premiums I suggest.