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Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

forbes.com

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Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#41

Post by dragonwriter »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #40
jackcosgrove wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, programmer will be the last job.

Programmer will be the last job, but most programming jobs will be a part of the first wave to go. I can't tell you how many days I've felt like my job (wire up this API by googling then massaging a code sample) was such an obviously mechanical process than the AI needed to do it was not significantly more advanced than where we are now. I do not expect most of these jobs to last another two decades (at least by then…

> Programmer will be the last job, but most programming jobs will be a part of the first wave to go.

No, because the first wave of white collar jobs to go has already been happening, and it is mostly middle management. (I suspect the next wave will be a lot of domain-specialized professionals in research/analytical roles -- but not so much solution design and implementation -- roles.)

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#42

Post by Rumudiez »

Xcelerate wrote: post #38
sytelus wrote: post #17

Eventually technology should kill pretty much all of the jobs. Human time and energy should be spent on what they find interesting, not on mundane stuff such as farming, housing, construction, database plumbing - all of which could be easily automated. No human should have to work to pay bills because there should be no bills. That should be the promise of technology. Only jobs left for humans should be things that r…

As great as this sounds (and I'm a full supporter of the idea), I don't think it's going to happen. Humans have what seems to be a somewhat innate desire to "work". If there aren't enough jobs, we'll just add eight more layers of management positions to fill the gaps. If an improvement in technology led to more free time, then we should already have vastly more of it than we did in the 1800s.

And so we do. Two surveys placed mid-1800s average work weeks in manufacturing at close to 70 hours per week[1] with modern hours hovering around the common 40 hour work week, which is still actively being challenged[2].

1. https://eh.net/encyclopedia/hours-of-work-in-u-s-history/

2. http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/02/news/economy/sweden-6-hour-w...

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#43

Post by undersuit »

bcook wrote: post #25
sytelus wrote: post #17

Eventually technology should kill pretty much all of the jobs. Human time and energy should be spent on what they find interesting, not on mundane stuff such as farming, housing, construction, database plumbing - all of which could be easily automated. No human should have to work to pay bills because there should be no bills. That should be the promise of technology. Only jobs left for humans should be things that r…

Some people find farming, construction, housing, etc interesting. Something like cleaning toilets... the robots can have that. :) Though, I must say that I subscribe to the notion that creating AI will very likely be the last big impact we will have on history. We will just live while AI will thrive.

>We will just live while AI will thrive.

Why let them thrive uncontested? What's stopping us from using our own resources for self improvement of our mental facilities. I don't necessarily want to be a Jupiter Brain, I'd be willing to settle for a intergalactic iron man suit with brain enhancement, interfaces, or reworks.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#44

Post by undersuit »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #40
jackcosgrove wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, programmer will be the last job.

Programmer will be the last job, but most programming jobs will be a part of the first wave to go. I can't tell you how many days I've felt like my job (wire up this API by googling then massaging a code sample) was such an obviously mechanical process than the AI needed to do it was not significantly more advanced than where we are now. I do not expect most of these jobs to last another two decades (at least by then…

I wonder how many programmers shouted doom and gloom when the first assembly language was created, when the first compilers came to take their jobs, or when the first framework stole their work?

Don't complain about boring, tedious boilerplate being removed, the removal just frees up our time for more interesting work.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#45

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #33
forgottenpass wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyways, if no one had to work, most people would just do drugs. And when people do have to work, they just alternate between drugs that make them better workers, and drugs that let them forget work.

It seems like the basic blueprint of the human being, at every level, requires a certain amount of constant stress to function properly, an external challenge to the capabilities or even integrity of the system. At every level . Purely physical (motion), immunity, emotional level, intellectual level, etc. Unless we change the blueprint in a massive way, we won't do well in a life of complete leisure.

What humans consider leisure is simply enjoyable work. If there is no "work" work and just leisure, we're fine.

But not if there's nothing to do at all.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#46

Post by xnxn »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #28
kaybe wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had fun making it, why not? Not everyone will go to the Olympics..

People aren't thinking enough about what life would be like with no responsibilities. The sort of internal reward you're describing would be hollow because people would still see others' work that was better than theirs, and they would feel jealous. And ultimately everyone would know that it was all a sham, and that humanity was unnecessary and living in a zoo of its own creation. Most of my sense of self comes from…

> The sort of internal reward you're describing would be hollow because people would still see others' work that was better than theirs, and they would feel jealous.

Well, that's the status quo.

> Most of my sense of self comes from overcoming obstacles, and I'm sure a lot of people would agree with that sentiment. [...] Automation as an escape from work? I'll pass.

You would be welcome to work as much as you like, of course. Obstacles would be self-selected, not assigned by chance or force.

If you live in my hypothetical utopian society and truly feel that humanity must suffer so that you can derive meaning from "the struggle", you might have to emigrate to a polity of like-minded masochists.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#47

Post by jackcosgrove »

xnxn wrote: post #46
jackcosgrove wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren't thinking enough about what life would be like with no responsibilities. The sort of internal reward you're describing would be hollow because people would still see others' work that was better than theirs, and they would feel jealous. And ultimately everyone would know that it was all a sham, and that humanity was unnecessary and living in a zoo of its own creation. Most of my sense of self comes from…

> The sort of internal reward you're describing would be hollow because people would still see others' work that was better than theirs, and they would feel jealous. Well, that's the status quo. > Most of my sense of self comes from overcoming obstacles, and I'm sure a lot of people would agree with that sentiment. [...] Automation as an escape from work? I'll pass. You would be welcome to work as much as you like, o…

I'm arguing we can't get away from the status quo. If everyone can follow their muse, muse-following will devolve into a pissing contest. And if some people choose to work and others don't, those who work will become wealthier/stronger/more advanced than those who don't. Then there will be conflict between the two. A surplus of resources does not eradicate human foibles.

People were saying the same things in the Edwardian era about progress solving all of life's problems. Then we started World War I to a large degree because people were bored and wanted stimulation. This is just another utopian prediction that won't come true.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#48

Post by dclowd9901 »

sytelus wrote: post #17

Eventually technology should kill pretty much all of the jobs. Human time and energy should be spent on what they find interesting, not on mundane stuff such as farming, housing, construction, database plumbing - all of which could be easily automated. No human should have to work to pay bills because there should be no bills. That should be the promise of technology. Only jobs left for humans should be things that r…

I think this idea is almost unfathomable to humanity, which is funny, because who doesn't day dream of not "working" anymore (in which the meaning of "working" is doing something that you don't want to do to earn livable income).

An obvious first step is a basic income, paid for by military spending cuts and increase on corporate, capital gains and high earner taxes. This will show people that such an idea is sustainable, so they can prepare their mind for the coming utopia.

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#49

Post by dclowd9901 »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #28
kaybe wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had fun making it, why not? Not everyone will go to the Olympics..

People aren't thinking enough about what life would be like with no responsibilities. The sort of internal reward you're describing would be hollow because people would still see others' work that was better than theirs, and they would feel jealous. And ultimately everyone would know that it was all a sham, and that humanity was unnecessary and living in a zoo of its own creation. Most of my sense of self comes from…

Why do you think people wouldn't/couldn't challenge themselves in ways they care about (rather than arbitrary bullshit they have to do for someone else)? Why do you think challenge or accomplishment only comes from your 9-5 job? Have you ever done anything but work?

Re: Technology Will Kill White-Collar Jobs

#50

Post by Udik »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #21
sytelus wrote: post #17

Eventually technology should kill pretty much all of the jobs. Human time and energy should be spent on what they find interesting, not on mundane stuff such as farming, housing, construction, database plumbing - all of which could be easily automated. No human should have to work to pay bills because there should be no bills. That should be the promise of technology. Only jobs left for humans should be things that r…

If it were still up and running, I'd link you to regretsy.com for a primer on most people's level of creativity. But it's gone so now all I can say is that it showed the worst "user-generated stuff" people posted to Etsy. Not buying it - we have specialization and professionalization in part to maintain quality of work. Everyone cannot be, and should not be, an artist. Anyways, if no one had to work, most people woul…

Obligatory reading here: Riders of the purple wage, by Philip José Farmer.
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