I always said the dollar will lose its position as an outlier eventually. Reversion to the mean.
I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
41–50 of 119 posts
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a terrible argument. You're talking about public debt, which is a small fraction of all US wealth holdings (household + corporate + government), and can be trivially managed. Further, unlike a lot of countries, the US has significant spare taxing capability (it rests in the middle tier globally on taxation). The US could easily raise $200 billion in new annual income taxes on the top 25% and not miss a beat -…
You're wrong. I believe you're referring to this statistic: "... 0.7% of the global adult population, and they account for 45% of global wealth"[1] The U.S., ON PAPER, holds about 1/4(25.40%) of global wealth not half. [2] [1] - http://fortune.com/2015/10/14/1-percent-global-wealth-credit... [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_distribut...
I'm not wrong in fact.
"Some 39 percent of the world’s wealth belongs to Americans, while Western Europe accounts for another 31 percent."
And that was before the huge asset rebound in the US, and was a drop of 12% due to the great recession.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/americas-domina...
Allianz's 2015 report indicates North America holds 45% of all global financial assets. Unless you're pretending that Canada and Mexico hold 20% of all global assets, your figures are wildly off the mark (Canada is less rich than the US per capita on average, and Mexico is far less so); at a minimum the US holds 40% to 42% of all global wealth.
https://www.allianz.com/v_1443702256000/media/economic_resea...
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a terrible argument. You're talking about public debt, which is a small fraction of all US wealth holdings (household + corporate + government), and can be trivially managed. Further, unlike a lot of countries, the US has significant spare taxing capability (it rests in the middle tier globally on taxation). The US could easily raise $200 billion in new annual income taxes on the top 25% and not miss a beat -…
You're wrong. I believe you're referring to this statistic: "... 0.7% of the global adult population, and they account for 45% of global wealth"[1] The U.S., ON PAPER, holds about 1/4(25.40%) of global wealth not half. [2] [1] - http://fortune.com/2015/10/14/1-percent-global-wealth-credit... [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_distribut...
Well I'm not going to wait any longer to reply directly your assertions are absurd, you honestly just retorted with an article titled "America’s Dominance of Global Wealth Is Slipping". Thanks tips.
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#44While you present a compelling argument, I must respectfully disagree. I may catch some flack for saying it, and many people refuse to believe it, but the U.S. is insolvent. The value of the U.S. dollar is artificially propped-up. How long do you truly believe the Russias and Chinas of the world are going to keep using greenbacks? They will feign WWIII, Israel will expand to encompass 'Greater Israel' and U.N. will f…
Insolvent you say? The US owns 45% of all global wealth (per Allianz's global wealth studies, it was ~50% pre great recession, fell to about ~39% in 2010 as the US suffered heavy asset declines, and has rebounded back to around ~45% with the recovery in the US economy, that gap is mostly the arrival of China's wealth). The US is massively solvent in fact. Furthering this point, the US is now growing as fast as China…
Do you have link to the "Allianz global wealth saying 45% of all global wealth is owned by the US"?
I am very skeptical of this.
If this ( http://www.allianz.ru/upload/iblock/ff7/ff77bf0183742b88ea8f... ) is it, then you have misread it.
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're wrong. I believe you're referring to this statistic: "... 0.7% of the global adult population, and they account for 45% of global wealth"[1] The U.S., ON PAPER, holds about 1/4(25.40%) of global wealth not half. [2] [1] - http://fortune.com/2015/10/14/1-percent-global-wealth-credit... [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_distribut...
Well I'm not going to wait any longer to reply directly your assertions are absurd, you honestly just retorted with an article titled "America’s Dominance of Global Wealth Is Slipping". Thanks tips.
Right, that was from 2010, post great recession, and it indicated that the US held 39% even then. US assets have massively increased since then.
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#46Does this have an affect on the ability of wealthy Chinese people to move their money out of China?
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#47This is how the worlds reserve currencies has looked historically. My personal guess is that the Yuan will be the next bar in the graph. http://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-curre...
I think Gold was the 'global reserve currency' before the 20th century.
You are correct, currency and financial systems today are vastly different. That site seems to be pushing the "THE PETROLDOLLAR IS DYING ANY DAY NOW" agenda.
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#48While you present a compelling argument, I must respectfully disagree. I may catch some flack for saying it, and many people refuse to believe it, but the U.S. is insolvent. The value of the U.S. dollar is artificially propped-up. How long do you truly believe the Russias and Chinas of the world are going to keep using greenbacks? They will feign WWIII, Israel will expand to encompass 'Greater Israel' and U.N. will f…
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10650774 and marked it off-topic.
Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#49A big deal has been made about this, however it was inevitable and the only logical thing to do. With the substantial Yen debasement, Japan's economy is now less than half the size of China's. That will fall to 1/4th in the next ten years. Even if China were to need to devalue their currency substantially over the coming years, as is being regularly argued now, that would pale in comparison to what Japan will do to i…
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Re: I.M.F. Makes China’s Renminbi One of World’s Select Currencies
#50A big deal has been made about this, however it was inevitable and the only logical thing to do. With the substantial Yen debasement, Japan's economy is now less than half the size of China's. That will fall to 1/4th in the next ten years. Even if China were to need to devalue their currency substantially over the coming years, as is being regularly argued now, that would pale in comparison to what Japan will do to i…
You are not saying anything original here that is not the complete median view on the Street. Eurozone 0%: check. UK bright spot: check. Japan a debt disaster: check. Russia suffering: check. China/US the future: check.
There is nothing here that if followed, will allow anybody to outperform because this is complete consensus, it's what's priced in almost exactly. Yet the real alpha-generation skill is to challenge the received wisdom which here, is light years from happening.
How about the view that the a 9% yield in Russia is actually hugely more interesting than a 2% yield in dollars. What about the idea that 40$ oil is cheap as chips and the bargain of a generation? Maybe China's debt situation is, if we dig a bit deeper than the surface, much worse than Japan's, short term? Perhaps the UK is a financial bubble far too long of Arab money and that the Eurozone's current travails represent the small potential for light at the end of the tunnel on the view of renewal?
Not saying these are true, just that they might be worth considering.
Still, thank you for paraphrasing in one short paragraph exactly what I hear in my inbox in PDF form 20x per hour from the analyst community.