Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

Post by akgerber » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 3:57 PM UTC

VLM wrote: post #8

Here's a super depressing mathematical proof of why the services fail in the burbs: First the assumption is a car is necessary for living in general. I am very happy for the 0.1% of the population who live in an urban hugbox where they don't need a car, but this is a general argument for 99% of the population or a unicorn sized middleman app. My garage costs perhaps $50K lifetime, including land, maint, all added tog…

Post by ghaff » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 4:02 PM UTC

akgerber wrote: post #39

xyzzyz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe, the number of people willing to use public transit is much greater than 10%, for one thing. Another thing is that you don't really need to get matched with someone going the same direction as you: people generally value living close to public transit (which is completely opposite to people living in California, who try to avoid it), and public transit generally gets you where you want to be, possibly with…

The prices in the Mission or downtown Palo Alto, for example, don't really reflect your contention that people in California don't want to live near public transit. The real issue is that California isn't building much new transit, and it's essentially impossible to build much new housing or corporate headquarters nearby— so it's mathematically impossible for many people to live near public transit.

Post by brudgers » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 4:11 PM UTC

HappyTypist wrote: post #23

brudgers wrote: post #14

It seems that the conclusion is drawn from specific premises: + The measure of a ride sharing app's value is cash on cash returns to Silcon Valley style investors. + A ride sharing app's primary market will be in the US. + The suburbs served will be affluent, and hence the ride sharing app's user base will tend to have economic flexibility in regards to transportation. + The served markets will have poor public trans…

The numbers in this article are misleading as they're drawn from ridiculously underestimated assumptions. 25 - 33% is a more accurate number. Pooled ridesharing is cheaper and better than owning a car in many cases (including mine), and the benefits will only increase with the network effect. (Imagine if 50% of the cars on the road are Ubers, and the average ETA to pickup is 30 seconds). The positive externalities ar…

Post by ghaff » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 4:30 PM UTC

akgerber wrote: post #38

ghaff wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to confess that while I absolutely understand not owning a car as an adult under some circumstances--and in some cities especially--the concept of never learning to drive and get a driver's license somewhat astounds me. There are so many places I go both locally and when I travel that would be effectively inaccessible without a car. And even leaving my regular commute aside, there are plenty of times when I ne…

It's not that difficult— if such a person travels travel, they go to major cities or resorts or places where driving isn't necessary, and if they want to go hiking, etc., they take public transit or go with friends. Downtown-oriented companies (e.g. startups or banks) often do business with other urban companies, too. Versus oft-suburban companies (e.g hardware companies.) often do business with other oft-suburban co…

Post by nimblegorilla » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 4:47 PM UTC

brudgers wrote: post #45

HappyTypist wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers in this article are misleading as they're drawn from ridiculously underestimated assumptions. 25 - 33% is a more accurate number. Pooled ridesharing is cheaper and better than owning a car in many cases (including mine), and the benefits will only increase with the network effect. (Imagine if 50% of the cars on the road are Ubers, and the average ETA to pickup is 30 seconds). The positive externalities ar…

If a person calls for an Uber and rides alone, there's no less congestion because there is no reduction in commuter-vehicle trips. Just an increase in raw vehicle occupancy. In addition, unless the Uber is already in the commuter's driveway and waits at the curb until the commuter is ready to leave and parks in the commuter's driveway overnight, the use of an Uber increases traffic overall.