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Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

fortune.com

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Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#41

Post by crdoconnor »

maxharris wrote: post #7

The article uses euphemisms and double-talk: As more countries and states enact market systems that put a price on carbon emissions, clean energy technologies will actually become cheaper than fossil fuel technologies Translated into plain English: As more governments raise the price of fossil fuels through increased taxation, solar and wind may cost less than fossil fuels. What does the author have to gain by obfusc…

>What is the impact on people when their energy costs are raised? (Hint: energy - vast amounts of it - goes into everything, from growing food to producing artificial heart valves.)

There ought to be minimal impact on overall energy costs since renewable energy is capable of filling in the demand at the same cost these days.

Renewable energy is also perfectly capable of ramping up supply to match demand (unlike oil or gas there isn't a hard resource limit to manufacturing capacity).

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#42

Post by mercurial »

maxharris wrote: post #27
simplexion wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Fossil fuels have definitely had benefits in the past but now we have to ability to continue with those benefits, increase them and remove the negatives.

By raising energy prices, which will soak the poor? Not everyone can afford to shop at Whole Foods, drive $100k electric cars, and live in LEED-certified houses (not cheap here in Seattle!)

If society can afford to not include the huge negative externalities inflicted by fossil fuels in the bill, it gets to show that affordable green energy is largely a question of political will.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#43

Post by jnwrd »

crdoconnor wrote: post #37
toomuchtodo wrote: post #8

1. This is excellent. It means we're well on our way to sustainable energy generation. Wind and solar are only going to get cheaper. Even without subsidies, there is no reason to ever build another coal or oil fired generation facility. Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries. 2. Nuclear is dead. Very dead. Thor…

>Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries. There's another possibility which is that there will be an overbuild of solar and wind caused by a clean energy boom (ZIRP already did this to oil; where is that ROI-hungry risk capital going to look for returns next?). The market will then figure out ways of putting the…

Periodic bouts of practically free electricity make water desalination much more attractive.

Perhaps you even get a stabilizing mechanism where: drought ~ high solar output -> cheap electricity -> water desalination -> eliminates drought problems.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#44

Post by cpprototypes »

schwabacher wrote: post #35
cpprototypes wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's possibly a better alternative to batteries: http://www.audiusa.com/newsroom/news/press-releases/2015/05/... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-diesel This type of technology can allow the extra power generated by solar/wind to be used to create oil. If this technology is developed further, I think it could be a better alternative to batteries. Imagine a desert full of solar panels creating oil with excess electr…

The benefit of creating oil like this is that it is energy dense, the downside is that it is hugely inefficient at every step compared to battery storage and burning it still produces air pollution.

If cars and all the oil infrastructure didn't exist, EV and batteries are superior. They have far better efficiency and are a much more elegant solution. But all the oil infrastructure does exist and is a huge advantage for oil producing solutions. Consider asking a random person, would you rather keep your current car and use oil that has a side benefit of being carbon neutral or throw away the car, buy a brand new EV, and all the other associated costs (like upgrading the electric sockets in the garage). I think most would keep their car. And for someone living in an apartment without a personal garage, it's not even an option.

If we someday convert our deserts into massive solar energy farms, it may not even matter much that the oil technology is less efficient. There would be so much excess energy during daytime, the greater efficiency of EV wouldn't be a big advantage.

And gas engine technology itself isn't standing still. The traditional ICE engine efficiency of 25% is pathetic compared to the EV 80%. But the Prius combines both technologies and gets 40% thermal efficiency which is a big improvement. It's possible this could be increased further with more improvements in hybrid technology.

Many think that hybrids and plug-in hybrids are a bridge technology to a pure EV future. But the future may end up being a lot more similar to the present than expected. Maybe the typical car purchase in the future will be a 100 mpg hybrid with 60 mile plug-in battery range as an option. Those who have personal garages would buy the option, those who don't would not. And it would be all powered by massive solar power farms in the Mojave desert and wind farms in the mid-west. And the output from all this would be electricity and carbon neutral oil.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#45

Post by PhantomGremlin »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #39
crdoconnor wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries. There's another possibility which is that there will be an overbuild of solar and wind caused by a clean energy boom (ZIRP already did this to oil; where is that ROI-hungry risk capital going to look for returns next?). The market will then figure out ways of putting the…

I have high hopes that practically free energy leads us to post scarcity.

practically free energy

We've heard that before, as far back as 1954: "too cheap to meter". The problem is, even if the incremental generation of electricity is practically free, there are still large costs in building the windmills and solar panels. And there are large distribution costs as well.

In addition, the more cheap energy there is, the more inefficiently people will use it. Why bother with things like Energy Star and LEED? Just build inefficient power supplies and poorly insulated buildings. After all, it is "practically free" to heat them and cool them.

Post scarcity energy is a non-starter. Consumption will always increase as necessary. Here's an even more crazy example: just how much bitcoin (or similar) mining would there be if energy were cheap? It's already a disgusting misuse of resources, it would be a lot worse!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#46

Post by monochromatic »

schwabacher wrote: post #35
cpprototypes wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's possibly a better alternative to batteries: http://www.audiusa.com/newsroom/news/press-releases/2015/05/... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-diesel This type of technology can allow the extra power generated by solar/wind to be used to create oil. If this technology is developed further, I think it could be a better alternative to batteries. Imagine a desert full of solar panels creating oil with excess electr…

The benefit of creating oil like this is that it is energy dense, the downside is that it is hugely inefficient at every step compared to battery storage and burning it still produces air pollution.

> burning it still produces air pollution

Doesn't burning it just turn it back into what it was made from? You're not releasing any more carbon than you put into it.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#47

Post by eru »

crdoconnor wrote: post #40
mistermann wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm wondering, when they say prices are now near parity, is that pure prices, or does it still consider the "cost of externalities" factor? Also, does it factor in the necessary costs for peak load and low production (cloudy / no wind)? I actually don't think life would be that bad if society had to self-limit consumption during these times, but what are the real facts on these two items?

>I'm wondering, when they say prices are now near parity, is that pure prices, or does it still consider the "cost of externalities" factor? I think it just counts externalities that are already priced in via taxes/subsidies. It's not really possible to price global warming or clean air anyway. Plus, remember the story about primary school parents who were fined for being late to pick up their kids? The effect of try…

Corporations may be people, but they are not humans. The Kindergarten late pick up pricing doesn't apply.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#48

Post by toomuchtodo »

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #45
toomuchtodo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have high hopes that practically free energy leads us to post scarcity.

practically free energy We've heard that before, as far back as 1954: "too cheap to meter". The problem is, even if the incremental generation of electricity is practically free, there are still large costs in building the windmills and solar panels. And there are large distribution costs as well. In addition, the more cheap energy there is, the more inefficiently people will use it. Why bother with things like Energ…

You're free to your pessimism :) I've got another 50 years of life to be hopeful.

Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in 5 minutes to power the world for a year. That's effectively limitless.

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#49

Post by PhantomGremlin »

cinquemb wrote: post #36
toomuchtodo wrote: post #8

1. This is excellent. It means we're well on our way to sustainable energy generation. Wind and solar are only going to get cheaper. Even without subsidies, there is no reason to ever build another coal or oil fired generation facility. Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries. 2. Nuclear is dead. Very dead. Thor…

There's also CSP[0] which has taken off recently in the past 5 years (fastest growing[1] segment at ~4GW total vs ~177GW for PV) which is overshadowed by most compared to PV mind-share, but is better suited for projects that require more energy/load requirements. I also can see CSP being more attractive to locales with existing grids and who can probably attract financing easier for a +100 MW plant to one institution…

The problem with CSP compared to PV is all the moving parts. You need something like molten salts, coupled with a conventional turbine and generator. PV can be purely solid state, a thing of beauty IMO compared to mechanical "contraptions".

Re: Wind now competes with fossil fuels, and solar almost does

#50

Post by danieltillett »

monochromatic wrote: post #46
schwabacher wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The benefit of creating oil like this is that it is energy dense, the downside is that it is hugely inefficient at every step compared to battery storage and burning it still produces air pollution.

> burning it still produces air pollution Doesn't burning it just turn it back into what it was made from? You're not releasing any more carbon than you put into it.

You get other pollutants other than CO2 when you burn fuel in an internal combustion engine - things like NO2, NO as well as carbon particle, etc.
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