Until self-_fueling_ cars are a thing, all of your points, which are predicated on "never stop moving" are moot.
It's just a prototype but Telsa made an automatic refueling snake-thing that is super cool!
Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
41–50 of 82 posts
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#42I see two opposing forces: Self driving cars could encourage sprawl by making commuting long distances more practical. If you could be working during your commute instead of driving, and didn't need to find parking once you arrive, a 2-hour commute could become practical. That would intensify the "car culture" that currently drives municipal planning, but would reduce the harmful effects. As you mention, less space w…
I think that's about right. To your "on the other hand" though, I'm inclined to think that where density is already high, robo-driving doesn't change the equation of car + $10-20/hr driver all that much. (Especially given that some of those costs--cleaning, etc.--have to be shifted to a non-driver.) Therefore, I expect easier driving = more driving (which is more or less basic economics.)
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#43I grew up in an older, mixed suburb; a common complaint I've heard from young people who grew up in other circumstances is they grew up in huge multi-square mile monolithic subdivisions with nothing to do within walking distance as a kid. One interesting social effect of self driving cars would be "mom" (it always seems to be mom stuck with the job) no longer has to taxi drive their kid everywhere... Essentially every little kids has private limo service.
So if the closest public library is 5 miles down the interstate, a kid living there can get a similar life experience to my burb where the library was about 10 minute bike ride away. Wanna go to the park, fine. Wanna go to the library, fine. If kids still hang out at the mall, they can go there too. Friends house is 7 miles away? The self driving car won't care.
And a second-level social effect is the self driving car may eliminate helicopter parent attitudes toward kids being unsupervised... Well, maybe.
Another social effect people have not discussed is employers love sick employees to show up to work, cough on everyone to demonstrate their devotion to the cause, not to mention primate dominance (I can make you work when you're near dead, not vice versa). Often when I call in sick its not because I can't sit quietly and appear to be busy, similar to sitting on my couch, its because I literally can't safely drive when I'm this sick or medicated or sleepless or vomiting or whatever. Self driving cars mean workplaces are going to be even more like a sweatshop from centuries past at least WRT illness. The lower classes packed cheek to jowl sneezing and coughing on each other while moaning in pain... There are people who get off on other people suffering like that and they're going to really like self driving cars.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#44This might seem minor compared to the other real estate trends that self driving cars will bring about, but it's interesting to think about what might happen to all the land in urban and suburban American that is currently on-street parking. Hopefully we'll see some creative uses for it, such as gardens, bike lanes, or outdoor seating for cafes, instead of just letting it lie underutilized. Maybe on some streets we'll get something similar to the woonerfs [1] in the Netherlands, with streets being shared by cyclists, pedestrians, and slow moving self driving cars.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#45I suspect that shopping centers will tax their member stores to pay for a self-driving bus that can pick people up in the neighborhood. They'll have to be at least close to wheelchair accessible so people can take carts on them rather than carrying their heavy groceries and home goods.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#46This may derail the discussion but it's hard to discuss this question without first wondering the impact of self-driving cars to mass transit . At least in New York, being near a subway stop is a very nice amenity and commercial development typically flourishes around each stop regardless of neighborhood. If stepping into a self-driving car is as easy as walking 50 feet to the nearest subway stop, will real estate ar…
What if they redesigned the subway to be a bunch of self driving cars? basically have the stop be a lineup of cars that you get into on demand like a taxi and have each stop have a bypass so if your small car didn't need to stop there you could move on unimpeded.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#47I think the impact of self-driving cars on real estate will vary wildly by geography as well as their adoption rate.
Urban roads in the US and Canada are quite wide and probably make it much easier to make an effective and safe transportation solution out of this technology. This isn't the case in Europe where urban roads are considerably narrower, regardless of city size. The same can be said about Japan as a whole and other large asian metro areas - Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Seoul. Much tougher.
Europe and Japan also have a much denser rail networks than most of the US, which in turn will cause a different impact on real estate.
Driverless urban buses will probably be adopted much earlier as there are exclusive bus lanes in most medium and large metro areas throughout the world but I don't see it changing the dynamics in a fundamental way.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#48I'm going to play the spoiler and say that I think everyone here is on the wrong track. In the short term, yes, I think it will business-as-usual, with some of the ideas being discussed here happening.
But think of the transition from horse to automobile. If you didn't predict the invention of the airplane, your guesses about transportation in the future would have been pretty far off.
I think the questions to ask are: -why will anyone commute to work in the future, when telecommuting becomes more and more lifelike? -what will "work" even look like? We can't be that far away from most service jobs being replaced by computers/robots. -Why would anyone go shopping, when anything they want can be delivered to them instantly or even printed on-site?
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#49While lot of people are thinking about how the self driving cars will effect commute specially to work. We really don't know how the workplace is going to change. I think the conventional workplace is ripe for change. Will there will be more need to commute to work as opposed to more remote working with say virtual workplace with better virtual reality. Obviously some of the jobs can't be done unless you are physical…
Programmers are the prime example for a job that can be done remotely, and yet there are tons of articles about the problems it causes. The problem of staying in contact with your workplace hardly can be solved with virtual reality.
At startup size its considered unsolved. At multinational megacorp level its considered a solved problem, often enough your boss and some coworkers aren't even on the same continent.
One interesting social effect of self driving cars is I only see my bosses boss about every three months because he lives and works several hundred miles away, and I have coworkers I've never met in person. (note, not a remote job, just a typical "dozens of billions of dollars" non-tech mega corporation). Self driving cars mean I'd probably be stuck sitting in a car while working for an entire day to meet people face to face. For people who still believe in mystical laying on of hands, self driving cars would likely explode the amount of it that goes on, as I've found it weirdly true that famous projects are international, but its fractally similar in that you're also more likely to have a boss thats 30 miles away, or a bosses boss 800 miles away, not the proverbial instantaneous jump from the entire company in one skyscraper to fully distributed. Yes, a self driving car would be useless if my boss was in China, but things haven't spread out geographically that fast.
Re: Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?
#50Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be differ…
Because they could be better drivers. For example a "perfect" driver communicating with one in front of him could, eventually, tailgate with an inch at much higher speeds. If we approximate (for arguments sake) traffic as a fluid, by bernoulli's principal there will be more capacity for a given lane. Said in another way, if the car can get there quickly it'll be off the streets sooner and another one will take its sp…
People that are too defensive on transit tend to cause congestion, not avoid it. Of course, that's dependent of the streets being full of people a bit more violent, but until we have all cars driving themselves, that condition will be true, what may take decades.
Also, if the car is self-driving, people will be want to make more trips. For example, if we send their cars back home once they got to work, we'll save on parking, but get more congestion. I'd love to automatically send my car to a mechanic when needed, what's also more congestion... I'm sure people will find lots of good reasons for sending their cars around.
Anyway, what will probably reduce congestion is a smart bus system. Imagine a small bus that takes you door to door, and takes only slightly more time to get there than your own car, but is way cheaper. I've seen that on the news just recently, I think it's Japan trying it.