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How Cheap Can Solar Get?

rameznaam.com

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Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#41

Post by vilda »

RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

The price of energy storage, an impact of energy storage technologies to environment, and costs of unpredictable energy distribution in the network does not seem to be calculated at all.

They are not trivial. Germany claims one trillion EUR direct costs on network upgrades to cope with renewable energy. They do not take into account energy storage costs. Even now (at least in my country) 75% of energy costs are distribution costs.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#42

Post by le_clochard »

RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

If you could add the trendlines of conventional power sources (thermal, hydel, nuclear) it would give a better idea of when we can expect solar to emerge from the competition.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#43

Post by 7952 »

mtgx wrote: post #31
leni536 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

A politician can make any kind of spending seem bad by just calling it a subsidy regardless of the social benefit. But when it benefits people they like it can just be quietly ignored.

The real test should be if it ensures that people pay a "fair price" for a product. Paying a little more for clean energy is perfectly reasonable.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#44

Post by watchdogtimer »

justaaron wrote: post #25

i live off grid inside of a 500w/h peak footprint. i paid around $1000 for proper German (Schutten) panels, a charge controller suitable for them, 2 110ah "solar batteries" (lead acid usual cheapo old school stuff), and a Xantrex inverter. After nearly 1 year running a fridge, lights, computer, router, & studio monitors, I'm ready to add more battery capacity before the winter (cloudy days) and a small wind turbine.…

Do you always use your MBP connected to a power outlet? If so, try running it until its battery is drained about 50%, then plug it into your inverter and see how much power it draws. My guess is it will draw about 50-60 W.

I've been using a pedal-powered generator to power my computer, phone, tablet, and LED lights for the last 5 years and have tested several laptops and other devices using it. I've found that most laptops draw from 12 W (11" Chromebook) to 25 W (older 15" Dell) when their battery is charged, but 40-60 W when charging. The power supplies of most devices seem to have about a 50% safety factor, so a device that has a normal max power consumption of 50 W will use a 75 W power supply.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#45

Post by newjersey »

7952 wrote: post #43
mtgx wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

A politician can make any kind of spending seem bad by just calling it a subsidy regardless of the social benefit. But when it benefits people they like it can just be quietly ignored. The real test should be if it ensures that people pay a "fair price" for a product. Paying a little more for clean energy is perfectly reasonable.

> The real test should be if it ensures that people pay a "fair price" for a product. Paying a little more for clean energy is perfectly reasonable.

You could argue the other way and say that paying a little more for dirty energy is perfectly reasonable because someone has to come after them to clean things up. There is a cost to that.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#46

Post by themartorana »

mtgx wrote: post #31
leni536 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose later for the environmental equivalent of a triple bypass surgery. That's really generous, however I think it would be the government's duty to compensate for these externalities so you don't have to pay more for solar (or not much more) than for the grid. Otherwise the environment will just stay a huge "tragedy of the commons".

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

Especially when those industries are killing us. Imagine government subsidies of cigarettes or heroin.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#47

Post by draugadrotten »

RamezNaam wrote: post #6
jl6 wrote: post #4

Does this make solar a great industry to invest in because of the growth potential, or a terrible industry to invest in because the prices are racing to the bottom?

Hi. I'm the author of the original post. The amount of solar installed in the world is going to scale by more than 10x in the coming decades. There will be more than a trillion spent. If you pick the winners, investment will have huge return. Most solar companies, however, will be casualties in the fierce competition to come. The other area to look at is energy storage. More renewables will increase the demand for en…

Do you have any suggestions about good solar startups with good patents/tech/people?

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#48

Post by joshuapants »

RamezNaam wrote: post #19
nroets wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC all the efficient solar cells we currently have contains some rare materials. Once a particular solar technology reaches grid parity, the demand for the relevant rare material will increase, placing a floor under the price of that solar cell. In the case of Moore's Law, a transistor can be any size. By contrast, solar cells absorbs too little energy if they are too thin. TL;DR: There are real physical limitation…

Two things have happened in this area recently. 1. The grams of rare earths required per watt of solar have been dropping steadily. And Solar PV panels with no rare earths at all have been developed, though they are not yet common. 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

> 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

Yes, but mining them is an environmental disaster.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#49

Post by redcalx »

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

Have you factored in the CO2 footprint of solar panels? Producing pure silicon is energy intensive, then there are various metals involved, so you've got mining, refinement, smelting, and bulk transport costs. The panels also have a limited lifetime so you need to think about the disposal or recycling cost in 15-20 years. Pretty sure I've missed a load of costs too.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#50

Post by Asbostos »

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

Are you sure you can't? Apartment building rooftops in China are typically covered with solar water heating panels. Sure it's not PV, but it's solar and it serves tenants all the way down the building, not just those adjacent to the roof.

Perhaps you just need to check with your building owner.

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