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Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#391
post #238
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty unfathomable growth. I'm pretty sure I listened to Dario saying something along the lines of keeping Anthropic on track for 10x ARR growth (in December) and thinking that that was a bonkers idea for a $9B run-rate company, and now it's looking like that might be an underestimate ...

Personally, I’m just exhausted. They are not obligated to be truthful here, so the entire thing is interpreted based on vibes. If you are an AI booster, this is proof that the demand is there; if you aren’t, you’re baffled at where these numbers are coming from.

I mean, they're not a public company, but there are still laws that exist...

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#392
post #165

> Since our Series G in February, adoption has continued to grow across global enterprise customers, and our run-rate revenue crossed $47 billion earlier this month. OK, so their self-reported run-rate revenue hit $47bn in early May. For comparison: Apr 6th 2026: https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c... - "Demand from Claude customers has accelerated in 2026. Our run-rate revenue has now surpas…

ARR vs realized revenue are two different things - in software we like to conflate those 2.

funny enough - those 2 might not meet. then what happens ?

Instead of ARR they should report actual revenue for once.

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#393
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I’m just exhausted. They are not obligated to be truthful here, so the entire thing is interpreted based on vibes. If you are an AI booster, this is proof that the demand is there; if you aren’t, you’re baffled at where these numbers are coming from.

I think the level of panic in CFO offices every where about AI cost explosion directionally validates that the spending is real.

Right but that kinda like just happened. The market hasn't fully reacted to it yet, so it's hard to say that now is the moment when it's safe to draw a linear extrapolation.

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#394

What is run-rate revenue and how is it different than revenue (classic)?

Revenue is an integral over the past year or past quarter. Run-rate is taking a recent measurement and multiplying it out so it will span a year. Basically, it assumes they keep all of their current contracts, and don't gain any new ones. Forward-looking revenue is an estimate of what the integral will be from now to a year from now. For a growing company, run rate is between past revenue and estimates of future reve…

So it is essentially a made up number. Like everything Dario claims.

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Approximately 56% to 60% of U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) lose absolute value over a five-year period. Historically, the median IPO stock has lost roughly 41% of its value five years after its first day of trading. Ipos are somewhat notoriously risky investments.

I remember seeing a video about this subject, since large IPOs are automatically included in index funds it is kinda of a way to extract value from passive investors. Insiders cash out before it hits the indexes, index crashes by a fraction for a %, all pensions in the country (and many overseas) pay for it. But with OpenAI and SpaceX IPOing roughly at the same time it will likely be more than fraction of a % in this…

but also, getting IPOs included captures the upside.

of course, public markets nowadays are definitely paying a pretty serious "agent-principal premium". (since public exits are usually very good for the C-suite and for all those vested stocks.)

but that's the cost of access to equity (compared to PE - which nowadays underperforms public markets https://www.hamiltonlane.com/2026-market-overview/performanc... )

so yeah, it seems it would make sense to buy the post-IPO dip, but then you would need to have some kind of formula for that, and ... that seems ripe for gaming by speculators ... so all in all, it's just more efficient to do what the rule of the index says. (and of course there's already speculation at the discontinuity.)

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#397
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... still, "on average" IPOs tend to make money, no? that's why people (fight to be able) to buy them. this gives a nice comfy exit to many late-stage investors, etc. and, of course, it's hard to say that it's great that these companies are mere shadows of themselves post-IPO, but also it's impossible to non-misleadingly assess each IPO as if they were in a vacuum. obviously Coinbase is/was a stupid venture, but at t…

> Approximately 56% to 60% of U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) lose absolute value over a five-year period. Historically, the median IPO stock has lost roughly 41% of its value five years after its first day of trading. Ipos are somewhat notoriously risky investments.

sure, but does that risk have good returns to go along? if IPOs are known to be very bad bets why do institutions (supposedly savvy professional investors) participate?

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#398
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I’m just exhausted. They are not obligated to be truthful here, so the entire thing is interpreted based on vibes. If you are an AI booster, this is proof that the demand is there; if you aren’t, you’re baffled at where these numbers are coming from.

i would assume investors giving billions of dollars have done their due diligence and not base it off vibes...

I used to think this too. Now I know different.

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no panic, it's misreporting and bad journalism. 2025 AI budgets were based on 2025 AI capabilities, and let's face it, LLMs only got acceptable in around November 2025. So it's natural usage went up and budgets didn't account for that.

There's absolutely someone in every big company except the biggest tech companies in the world looking at spend these days because of exactly what you said. The models are good now which means people use them a lot more which means money is flying out the door more than ever before (and the impact on the businesses hasn't shown up yet as you might notice in the earnings of any business that isn't a frontier AI compan…

The root problem: At every company, there is always more work that could be done, but there is not always more work that would increase profits.

Existing corporate command and control has optimized for people control, because people cost money and performed work. Control their assignments, and you control costs and what's worked on.

Widespread unmetered AI turns this on its head, because suddenly each employee is directing their own work and the AI spend that comes with it.

F.ex. Bob in accounting may think it's a brilliant idea to rebuild Lotus 1-2-3.

That may help Bob, but 10x'ing Bob's spreadsheet output doesn't change the company's profitability, because it wasn't a limiting factor. It was to Bob, but not to the company's revenue generators.

HN didn't like this article when it hit, but I thought it made a good point that corporate C2 is going to be the first thing AI adoption breaks: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonwingard/2026/04/23/vibe-co...

Increasing AI spend without profitability improvements is a symptom that C2 is failing (or was insufficient to begin with).

Seen through a charitable "CEOs know what the fuck they're doing" lens, the preemptive layoffs are about forcing AI efficiency gains in areas CEOs expect them: instead of allowing those departments' remaining employees to build their own apps, they're forced to deploy AI to cover for their missing 3 team members.

Unfortunately, the layoffs were executed before there were solid results about which departments could benefit from AI use (and without a plan for continuity of institutional knowledge), so... we'll see.

Re: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

elaborate please

easy: 1. Shit goes into S&P 500 (pump phase) 2. Shit goes to 0. Your 401(k) invested into S&P 500 takes a dive (dump phase) 3. Retail holding bags (full of shit) phase. Case study: Tesla, with a P/E ratio in the hundreds along with declining sales and TAM, is a part of the S&P 500 and, consequently, of many people's 401(k)s.

Tesla is 1.75% of Vanguard SP500 index. It could go to zero and most investors wouldn’t notice.
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